Hedgeye Asset Management

“Hegseth is the first sacrificial lamb Trump makes.” Hedgeye Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor on the midterm map, the lame duck playbook, and 2027. 0:00 Welcome JT Taylor @HedgeyeDC and the Pre-Midterm Level Set 2:32 The Senate Map, JT’s Range of 49 to 56 With a Median of 53 to 54 4:38 JT’s Top Senate Pickup Chances and Elon Musk at $300 to $400 Million in Texas 7:14 Republicans Came in After Labor Day and Super PACs Are Paying a Premium 11:31 Ticket Splitting Has Dropped From 8 to 10% in 2006 to 2 to 3% in 2024 15:40 Corruption Has Overtaken Affordability as the Top Issue on the Trail 18:40 When We’ll Know, Alaska and Maine Ranked Choice, California Hand Counts 22:22 The House Floor Is 10 to 12 Seats, Ceiling in the Mid 20s, Jeffries Needs 230 26:51 The Four Governor’s Races That Matter for Data Centers 30:28 The Anti-Data Center Narrative Is Fracking All Over Again 37:16 The Lame Duck Playbook, NDAA at $1.15 Trillion and the December 11 Approps 43:10 Hegseth as the Sacrificial Lamb, and the Beginning of a Lame Duck Presidency

$IBIT Notable Options Flow: ~$36M net premium paid on 100K Dec 2027 call spread risk reversals, buying the $48/$75 call spread and selling the $25 put. Breakeven ~$51.60 at expiry, ~22% above today’s close. (Source: @Bloomberg, @Hedgeye)

“Adaptability, flexibility, and above all, humility, are necessary to survive and prosper when investing.” — Sam Rahman @Hedgeye_HGRO, Early Look 11/6/26

🇺🇸 U.S. pending home sales fell to their lowest level on record in September

Every fund at Hedgeye Asset Management is run by a dedicated portfolio manager. They make the calls through their own process and own the outcomes. Good and bad. @KeithMcCullough does not manage any of our funds. Each fund's track record is public and belongs to its PM.

Fed funds futures are pricing a full rate hike by January, with a 77% chance it comes in December

The High Beta Momentum factor exposure has crashed -26% in the last month alone

U.S. debt held by the public hit about 100% of GDP, the highest since 1946

🚨 TODAY AT 1 PM ET Join Hedgeye Asset Management CIO John McNamara and $HEFT Portfolio Manager R. Patrick Kent for a FREE webcast on dynamic, rules-based hedging strategies designed to manage downside risk while capturing upside across equities and Bitcoin. Get FREE access: app.hedgeye.com/insights/188…

U.S. net equity issuance hit $150 billion last quarter, the highest on record

Token prices are down -90% in six months. 1% of enterprises account for 85% of OpenAI and Anthropic spend. Hedgeye Global Technology Analyst Felix Wang joins $HEFT Portfolio Manager R. Patrick Kent @RPKInvestor to discuss the AI trade’s financing problem. 0:00 Welcome @HedgeyeTech, Credit Spreads Widening and Small Caps Down 10% 2:50 Hyperscale CapEx Is the Key Indicator for AI Direction 4:04 Token Volumes Up 30 to 40% Month Over Month, Token Prices Down 90% in Six Months 6:31 1% of Enterprises Account for 80 to 85% of OpenAI and Anthropic Spend 9:31 Over 1,000 Models and Dario’s Pacing Argument Is Imagination 12:31 Freeze the Models Today, 99% of Productivity Gains Still Come From Implementation 15:48 No More Large-Scale AI IPOs This Year, Anthropic Will Need a 30 to 50% Cut 18:43 ARR Became Annualized Run Rate, and Overall Spend Is Slowing 24:11 The Memory Bear Case, Get Around the Memory Wall Instead of Solving It 29:37 China Is 30% of Memory Demand, CXMT and YMTC at Parity With the Cartel 33:32 Nvidia’s Rubin Timeline Is Slipping One to Two Quarters 37:34 Jensen Named Working Capital as the Problem, and the Market Sold Off 40:41 NeoClouds Don’t Turn Profitable Until Late 2028, If the Contracts Hold

“They are the first ones to blow up, no doubt about it, in my whole coverage space, because they are so levered up.” Global Tech Sector Head Felix Wang @HedgeyeTech on the neoclouds, from the latest Protect the Pile with $HEFT PM R. Patrick Kent @RPKInvestor. Read the full recap 👇 app.hedgeye.com/insights/188…

Grateful to be at the @FOXexchange Family Forum today. Neil Howe's (@HoweGeneration) session, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," is a powerful look at what comes next for America and the next generation. Thank you to the FOX team for bringing together such thoughtful people and conversations. #FOXFamilyForum

We were honored to ring in a year of growth at the @NYSE. Thank you to the clients, investors, and partners who made it possible.

A 3% bitcoin position does not behave like a 3% position. At bitcoin’s volatility, a small allocation can take up a large share of a risk budget. Bitcoin you can actually size: $HBIT For important investor information, including prospectus and risk considerations, visit: hedgeyeam.com/hbit

Bitcoin’s Volatility Problem: A Better Way to Manage the Risk Keith McCullough has spent years warning investors about complacency around Bitcoin risk. As Wall Street banks and asset managers increasingly pushed Bitcoin as another allocation in the traditional portfolio, Hedgeye focused on what that conversation was missing: risk management. Bitcoin has suffered four drawdowns of more than 50% since 2011. Even a relatively small allocation can consume an outsized share of a portfolio’s risk budget. Getting exposure to Bitcoin is easy. Managing the volatility and downside risk is the hard part. Keith sits down with Hedgeye Asset Management CIO John S. McNamara III, Portfolio Manager of the Hedgeye Hedged Bitcoin ETF (NYSE: HBIT), to discuss Bitcoin’s volatility and a different approach to managing risk while maintaining exposure to the asset. Why Hedgeye Launched a Hedged Bitcoin ETF Bitcoin’s Volatility Problem & the Case for Risk Management Bitcoin’s 50%+ Drawdowns: Why “Buy and Hold” Gets Difficult How Hedgeye’s Bitcoin Risk Range Works HBIT’s Strategy: A Process, Not a Bitcoin Forecast How HBIT Adjusts Exposure at the Top & Bottom of the Risk Range Removing Emotion From Bitcoin Investing What Happens When Bitcoin Enters a Bearish Trend? Dynamic Hedging vs. Static Hedging Price, Volume & Volatility: What Drives the Risk Range Disclosure: Hedgeye Asset Management, LLC ("HAM") is a registered investment adviser and controlled subsidiary of Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC ("HRM"). HAM is compensated, in part, on the asset size of the funds it manages and therefore benefits directly from investments in those funds. HAM is a subsidiary of HRM. HRM holds an ownership interest in HAM and provides research and other services to HAM under a revenue share agreement. As such, HRM benefits indirectly from investments in the funds managed by HAM.  For full disclosures, review HAM's Form ADV at adviserinfo.sec.gov/

As discussed with @Hedgeye_HELS on this morning's Macro Show, the Fed is going to have a hard time doing anything but raising rates between now and year-end. (Source: @Bloomberg, @Hedgeye)

2,144 trading days since 2018. 85.8% of them, bitcoin’s 4PM ET close landed inside the Risk Range™ published that morning. The range is the product. $HBIT For important investor information, including prospectus and risk considerations, visit: hedgeyeam.com/hbit