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Bitfinex, the preferred exchange of the most aged & largest Bitcoin holders, margin long positions hit a 2yr high, the highest level of long conviction since late 2023, it indicates increased purchasing power, smart money is indeed front running a major regime shift […]
Interesting. My quantile model also shows Bitcoin has been cheaper than this level only about 4% of the time across its observable history, as measured by this model’s placement along the quantile bands.
We are sitting in a region that has usually been associated with depressed valuation and lower long-run risk...
bitcoinintelligence.substack…
That’s my guy! 🦅🇺🇸
🚨 Sec. Scott Bessent is MIC DROPPING Canada PM Mark Carney! This man never misses.
"We've had a FREE RIDER problem with Canada. And PM Carney, after getting a verbal BEATDOWN from myself and Hegseth, said: 'Stop throwing shade to get negotiations?' Well, HE'S the one who said WE'RE AT WAR!"
"Canada had a great military. They were right there at the forefront on the beaches of D-Day, and what the Canadian government has done to the Canadian Armed Forces, if you look at the ranks of NATO spending, they are near the very BOTTOM, like they're cellar dwellers around with Spain in terms of their military spending to GDP!"
"And why is that? Because they were free riding."
"The Canadian businesses are not with the Prime Minister, the Canadian military is not with the Prime Minister."
"And, you know, he thinks that he got to office on an anti-Trump, anti-Americans, the platform, and it's not going to work out in the long term."
🔥🔥🔥
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12 pull me over ask me why I’m driving so fast for, I like fast cars I feel like this shiit NASCAR Yooom 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭🖨️🛅🕺🏿
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EXCLUSIVE: Expanding on naval blockade, US military looks to restrict Iranian land commerce reut.rs/4BOWRsU
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Tokenization could fundamentally change what investors actually own, traditional shares provides equity ownership & voting rights; tokenized products can provide price exposure without either; as capital markets increasingly separate ownership from exposure, the traditional ownership premium could diminish, contributing to structural forward P/E compression; the valuation lows of the old financial system could eventually become the ceiling of the new one
US stocks' valuation gets a lot of attention, but ex-US is now just 12.0x ... very low, historically @yardeni
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What’s interesting is the correlation between Nasdaq capitulation, Bitcoin's November seasonality, & a liquidity driven rotation back into risk assets, which creates an interesting setup once the equity selloff exhausts itself while BTC maintains important support; selling pressure subsides & liquidity returns, Bitcoin could catch a violent upside move
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AI accelerates productivity: Fewer employees required > competitive advantages become harder to maintain > Traditional corporate growth faces pressure > Forward P/E compression, regulation & lower expected returns > Capital reallocates > Broader equity participation, alternative assets & digital financial infrastructure > BITCOIN: A potential monetary destination for global capital, scarcity, institutional accessibility & an expanding financial ecosystem
Bitcoin is the monetary anchor of an expanding cryptographic financial system; “The Power Law of Power Laws”: the dominant network effect around which an entirely new financial architecture is developing
The historical Bitcoin power law model I’m tracking currently has a 5.566 slope coefficient and an R² of 95.65%, it’s baseline projects ~$492K by ~ December 2030 & ~$8.9M by ~ December 2045, with the $1M trendline milestone ~ January 2034. A 3x trend scenario brings that ~ $1M milestone forward to ~ August 2029 (Courtesy of Bitcoin 1 Million App @bensig @dotkrueger )
My $1M and “$10M” targets represent an accelerated growth thesis relative to those baseline projections; the bigger opportunity extends beyond Bitcoin’s price; when you consider the ownership distribution across 10,000, 1,000, 100, 10, 1, 0.1 & 0.01 BTC as Bitcoin’s valuation & adoption increases, fractional ownership becomes an increasingly important metric of participation in a fixed supply monetary network
Meanwhile the broader cryptographic economy continues developing, Zcash, Bittensor, XRP, Stellar, SUI, Solana, Quantus & Pearl, to name a few, represent different real world applications across privacy, decentralized AI, payments, programmable infrastructure & emerging cryptographic tech
Bitcoin is undergoing rigorous stress testing, with its intrinsic value & convexity constantly displayed through its security, settlement infrastructure, liquidity, monetary network effects, network security, capital flows & market structure; meanwhile, institutional participation is expanding beyond retail, as banks, asset managers, payment providers, & central banks explore the broader applications of digital assets & DLT
Bitcoin’s maturation as #1 emerging global reserve asset will converge with the expansion of an entirely new financial ecosystem; Bitcoin is the monetary foundation, cryptographic finance is the expanding ecosystem, & the networks that deliver genuine utility, security & sustainable economic activity have the opportunity to participate in that expansion
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