Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies

Ethiopia is challenging a system that has defined its external dependence since 1993. A maritime corridor dependence on Djibouti and reinforced by Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. What is at stake for China? adiss-strategies.org/publica…

The limit to China’s Shuttle Diplomacy in the Horn. China has compelling reasons to seek deescalation, but fewer incentives to resolve the disputes behind it. Its engagement therefore aims to contain the tension than resolve it. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

Egypt’s stagnant strategic thinking in a shifting regional order reflects Cairo’s selective reasoning and struggle to adapt to a region it can no longer dictate. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

Egypt’s stagnant strategic thinking in a shifting regional order reflects Cairo’s selective reasoning and struggle to adapt to a region it can no longer dictate. Ethiopia may escalate to prevent an emerging hostile bloc from consolidating and threatening its vital Red Sea trade lifeline. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

China has dispatched special envoys across the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. Liu Xianfa visited Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Egypt, while Hu Changchun traveled to Eritrea. China has compelling reasons to seek deescalation, but fewer incentives to resolve the disputes behind it. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

Ethiopia Reaffirms Its Commitment to International Peacekeeping Addis Ababa, Ethiopia | 10 November 2026 At International Partners Day in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia reaffirmed its longstanding contribution to collective security, from the Korean War in 1951 to peacekeeping missions in the Congo, Rwanda, Liberia, Burundi, Darfur, Abyei, South Sudan, and Somalia. The Defense Peacekeeping Center honored fallen peacekeepers, including four who died in South Sudan this year. Military leaders highlighted Ethiopia’s expanding role as an African center of excellence for training military, police, and civilian personnel for UN, EU, and regional operations. They also called for stronger international partnerships in joint training, research, technology, logistics, and regional standby forces. Ethiopia remains both a major contributor to international peacekeeping and a growing hub for professional peace support training and military cooperation.

Addressing Parliament, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reaffirmed Ethiopia’s determination to pursue its national interests according to its “own sovereign will” observing, “When we possessed the capacity, we determined our own destiny. Yet, when we were weak, others made decisions for us.” adiss-strategies.org/publica…

Ethiopia will regain access to the Red Sea, preferably through civilized and peaceful means grounded in international law and diplomacy, but will pursue other alternatives if those efforts fail, declared Ethiopian Navy Commander Vice Admiral Kindu Gezu Tegegn. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

U.S. Ambassador Ervin Massinga became the latest foreign envoy to visit ENDF headquarters and hold consultations with Ethiopia’s new Defense Minister, Mohammed Idris, following engagements with ambassadors from France, China and the European Union. The discussions focused on Ethiopia’s regional role, bilateral defense cooperation, security and counterterrorism.

Ethiopia is shaping EU’s strategic rethinking of the Horn of Africa, from renewed security and economic cooperation to European support for Ethiopia’s naval development. Brussels increasingly recognizes Addis Ababa’s importance to regional security, Red Sea stability and wider AU-Europe relation. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

Ethiopia must rethink its Somalia strategy by distinguishing Somalia’s stability, the strategic orientation of its central government and, most importantly, Ethiopia’s own national security interests. These do not necessarily reinforce one another. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

Somalia’s constitutional crisis worsens as the Supreme Court rules that Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s mandate expired on May 15, 2026, while those of Parliament and the federal government ended on April 14. The judgment comes a day after the president attempted to dismiss Chief Justice Baashe Yusuf Ahmed. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

The November 3, 2026, midterm elections have changed the balance of power in Washington. Democrats won both chambers of Congress. The consequences of political reversal will extend across the Atlantic and now governments must reconsider what the United States can credibly commit to under a divided government. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

Ethiopia has never sought and will never seek Egypt’s permission to develop its water resources. Ethiopia’s Minister of Water and Energy, Habtamu Itefa (PhD), rejected colonial-era Nile arrangements that excluded Ethiopia, calling instead for an Egyptian apology and recognition of Ethiopia’s watershed conservation efforts. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

China launches a diplomatic push to ease regional tensions, sending Special Representative on African Affairs Liu Xianfa to Ethiopia, Djibouti and Egypt; Horn of Africa Envoy Hu Changchun to Eritrea; and Middle East Envoy Zhai Jun to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia. On November 4, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos met Liu Xianfa to discuss regional peace and security. A day earlier, Chinese Ambassador Chen Hai met Defense Minister Mohamed Idris at ENDF headquarters to strengthen military cooperation.

Ethiopian Defense Minister Mohammed Idris and French Ambassador Alexis Lamek met in Addis Ababa, reaffirming their countries’ historic ties and commitment to stronger military and strategic cooperation. The partnership also builds on longstanding naval cooperation.

“When we possessed the capacity, we determined our own destiny. Yet, when we were weak, others made decisions for us.” Ethiopia’s historical endurance underscores the Prime Minister’s warning: national preparedness must keep pace with advances in warfare and shifts in the balance of power. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

The midterm elections dealt Trump a major political setback, with Democrats winning both chambers of Congress and breaking decades of Republican dominance in states such as Texas. The next sixty days could have far-reaching consequences, from the Middle East and the Russia–Ukraine war to China and the Horn of Africa. adiss-strategies.org/publica…