Independent investor, my tweets are not an investment advice. Charts, macro-micro, technicals.
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Joined March 2011
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Nvidia/AI/SOX is one story, but there are couple financial institutions I watch which have collapsed on the technical charts, but we don’t hear about it yet…
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Now look on $SOXX - you all know it's time to go bust when 10y/3m finally uninverted and as I've been saying :
"DON'T TRY TO PREDICT EVENTS, YOU WON'T, JUST LOOK ON THE CHARTS THEY WILL APPEAR ON KEY LEVELS"
1/ It'll take some time
2/ It's RETEST to multiple technical levels
3/ If Nvidia will fail on earnings we'll plunge way lower.
Who bets we'll get soon report about shady accounting practices in Nvidia and probably way more?
FinX knew about China since 2024 and knew about Enron's accounting tricks also since 2024, so ... let's wait.
If Nvidia’s Jensen is out as is being reported let’s war game the daisy chain effects.
He has been the architect of much of the circular financing to pump up demand for chips.
There were likely grey (I’m being generous) accounting practices.
Growth Fundamentals are clearly slowing.
Those in the C-Suite have a strong incentive to come clean and kitchen sink everything and reset expectations while blaming Jensen.
This is going to get interesting fast.
During dotcom bubble bust dynamics :
initial hit was 50-60% drop when first dead-cat bounce hit...
$NVDA (M)MA50 sits on -52% from its ~245$ PEAK
10Y/3M uninverted ... It's really the time...
Hahahah $CRWV ... 1 day post +25% bounce up...
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Earnings in 6 days and imagine "weakness"
$NVDA
The stock price is breaking down. Besides the Jensen well timed revelations the overwhelming reason is the second derivative of capex spending is slowing down due to credit markets questioning the ultimate ROI.
Neocloud bond spreads are blowing out and hyperscalers are reassessing their current capex pace.
Add in the China scandal and Nvidia has a revenue problem. Estimates are too high.
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And as I was predicting NVIDIA is FINISHED.
I know you can't believe it now, but charts say it is...
Nvidia was reversing since 2025. This move above the key NVDA/SOX ratio channel was ... BLOW-OFF TOP!.
Now its getting inside the channel and it'll go in the future to the lower part of the channel.
Not today not tomorrow and not this year but 80-90% drop will arrive.
NVDA/SOX ... + $NVDA
Are we observing "THE END of NVIDIA" after this (W)MA200 retest, the same moment NVDA jumping below key 212$ level?
I'll risk the thesis - YES WE ARE...
NVDA keeps its rotation since October 2025 (magical 4Q25).
If this retest NVDA/SOX will be completed on (W)MA200 (and later confirmed by (M)MA50) - Nvidia is officially FINISHED.
Magical moment...
June 2026 peak
I've never thought about Son as a normal person...
NEW: Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son was so swept up by the AI frenzy in 2025, he placed reservations for a large chunk of the market for gas power plant turbines.
He overdid it.
from me and @eliotwb for @WSJ:
wsj.com/business/energy-oil/…
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I remember when the crowd was telling us MSTR is undervalued around 400-300-200-100 (and they still think they are).
Later neoclouds... Let's take CRWV : 180, 150, 130, 100, 50 (and they still think they are)
I'll repeat it one more time :
97-99% of current fintwit has not passed one true technical bear market (last 2007-2009), only corrections in bull market.
In bull market everything is undervalued. In bear market everything is overvalued, even if it's P/E=1.
$BNB postponed for another 9 months since previous tweet, but we need to go back to it again.
Binance was hacked last time, but look on their BNBUSD technical chart...
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Took some time. BoJ needs another 100B$ (maybe today even 150B$ to buy another 30-60 days) as we've finally reached 160...
$USDJPY
Plan is unchanged USDJPY to 300, JP yields to infinity and Nikkei 225 to zero = Hat trick - how the economy dies on infinite QE program.
(As a derivative let's add collapsing demographics)
This is continuation of DXY (M)MA50 break
$EURUSD - do you know when last time EURUSD dropped below (M)MA50? (or DXY broke (M)MA50 to the upside)?
You won't believe it ... 4Q21 ...
An advice from very old person to young 30Ys old hedgefund managers...
Never ever predict $$$ collapse when 10Y/3M hit record ever inversion. This tells you only one thing... You'll probably see record ever highs of the $$$ not lows in upcoming future.
1/ Junk CRWV which crashed -80% from peak managed to get +25% bounce because in reality for each 4$ of CAPEX it gets 1$ of revenue, but promising a bright future taking $SOXX to +8% because we need more technical RETEST.
2/ The same time $DXY tries to blow (M)MA50 (because (W)MA200 is done) as EURUSD is -0.65%, AUDUSD -0.25% USDJPY (+0.75%) ... once again almost 160 and BoJ headache.
BIG BIG MOVE in currency land, but bond market is off today.
Anyway it looks like DXY is about to go parabolic - what is the reason behind it? No idea.
CHARTS FIRST, EVENTS TO CONFIRM THEM WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
I'll repeat once again ... I was tracing NVDA on technical charts and warned you. Couple facts.
1/ Nvidia has not dropped because of Jensen - that was IMO a "cover up" for incoming earnings weakness and general AI/semiconductor cycle end.
2/ Jensen has an amazing moment to quit (I bet he will) just like Warren Buffett on the peak of the bubble, so later people could blame Nvidia weakness on Jensen's exit, but it won't be true.
And his should not be the only head to roll economist.com/leaders/2026/1…
