Independent macro research & analysis on fiscal flows, Federal Reserve & Treasury operations, and balance-sheet mechanics.
Joined May 2018
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Existing home sales fell to a 3.75 million annual rate in October, below the 3.85 million expected.
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Initial jobless claims rose to 200K for the week ending November 7th, above the 195K expected.
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Per Treasury, November 9th saw a net fiscal flow of −$12.8bn, the first drain day of November.
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Per @nytimes, the Fed’s hawks want “at least two more quarter-point increases.”
Each adds ~$39B/yr in federal interest within a year, ~$73B/yr within four. Two hikes: ~$150B/yr of new income for bondholders.
This is supposed to solve inflation?
Modern Macro Technologies retweeted
Inflation is lifting off and rate hikes have been the hidden driving force that no one is talking about:
youtu.be/mkh_VhrMMiY
From December 2008 to December 2015, the Fed held rates near zero for 85 straight months.
Inflation averaged 1.4%, and ran below the Fed’s 2% target in 61 of those months.
December 2022 to September 2025: Rates at 4%+, inflation above 2% in all 34 months.
Rates aren’t the inflation dial they’re sold as.
"Sticky" inflation continues as Core CPI rose +0.3% in October vs +0.2% expected.
Treasury has paid $583.9 billion of interest on securities YTD, up from $506.9 billion during the same period last year (+15.2%).
Rate hikes won't fix inflation.
Our November 6th Market Update is live.
Margin debt has been decelerating since the summer.
Yesterday: S&P down more than 4%, Nasdaq down around 6%.
Fund blow-ups and leveraged ETF rebalancing: ~$60-80B of forced selling.
What caused It, what we missed, and why this isn't 2022:
appliedmmt.com/11-06-2026-ma…
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7 straight business days of net fiscal injection, October 27th through November 4th, per Treasury: +$202.4 billion.
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$32.765T of federal debt is held by the public.
Each dollar came into existence when the federal government spent it into existence. Buying a Treasury moves it from a deposit to a bond that pays interest.
That debt is the private sector's savings, in interest-bearing form.
The debt is not a "burden" on anyone.
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Net fiscal flow on November 3rd: +$35.9 billion, per Treasury.
That makes 6 straight business days of net injection, October 27th through November 3rd: +$200.8 billion.
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Treasury paid $33.5 billion in interest on Treasury securities on November 2nd, its largest interest payment since August 17th's $85.4 billion.
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Bessent wants lower long-term rates without the Fed.
The TGA: built to ~$950B.
Long-end buybacks: doubled to $4B+ per operation, starting Sept 9.
None of it reaches yields at the source. One fiscal lever does.
appliedmmt.com/lower-rates-w…
Modern Macro Technologies retweeted
In a crazy bit of irony, only MMT sees this massive amount of deficit spending as inflationary while the rest of mainstream macro sees this as deflationary.
BREAKING: US annual interest expense is up to a record 18.5% of federal government revenue.
This is officially above the previous record of 18.4% set in 1991.
This percentage has more than QUADRUPLED over the last 4 years as interest expenditures on public debt skyrocketed.
US annual interest expense now stands at a record $1.25 trillion, more than 4x the level seen in 1991.
Meanwhile, the 30Y Treasury yield is trading at ~5.21%, just 13 basis points from its highest level since 2007.
By comparison, the 30-year yield was oscillating at ~8.00% in 1991, underscoring how much the US debt burden has grown since then.
The US debt crisis is in uncharted territory.
