Host, America, Actually! @voxmedia Weekly midterms newsletter @Substack Editorial director @voxdotcom Political analyst @cnn Former @nytimes @bostonglobe
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Joined August 2011
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!!!! First day of our new podcast, America Actually (w/ Astead Herndon). It's going to be about the upcoming elections and America's road to a post-Trump future.
But as we got started I wanted to write something about why I landed on that theme and what I saw as the our mission in a landscape of a lot of media choices
Republicans chose fealty to Trump even though all the evidence pointed to his agenda being broadly unpopular. Why? Because his grip on GOP primary base remained total — and our political structures create incentives for politicians to think in self preservation
All the GOP 2028ers will have to walk this line going forward. An administration who is only acting in the interest of its hardliners
On @CNN with @JohnBerman:
FWIW — this clip cuts off his full answer: Moore said, “l lose no sleep over the amount of billionaires in our society…But I do lose sleep over the amount of children that are growing up in poverty"
Maryland Gov. @iamwesmoore on this weekend’s America, Actually!
Going through the issues that animated Democrat victories this week (affordability, anti-war, data centers, immigration)
Plus enough Black governors to start a group chat?
Watch 📺
Listen to the full interview wherever you podcast or watch America, Actually on the @voxdotcom YouTube channel
youtube.com/watch?v=olEs7cm1…
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Why I’d urge caution on declaring the Trump era over. The second term project hasn’t just been about retribution, but also unchecked presidential power — with Miller and Project 2025 its architects.
They didn’t really try and sell their agenda to the public. They tried to gerrymander a win before voting started. And they worked hard to empower the executive, and to minimize the role of Congress/Courts altogether.
So in a weird, undemocratic way, the WH has been building to this moment for two years.
This week’s newsletter: An important thing to communicate about the midterms — even a Democratic wave doesn’t meant the end of the Trump agenda
The president has spent two years methodically expanding presidential power, and it’s been largely blessed by the courts. It’s the common ground between Trump, Stephen Miller, the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025: the unitary executive
The second term agenda that has made him unpopular has served a structural purpose. He’s already marginalized Congress in policymaking
On @Substack: americaactually.substack.com…
On @voxdotcom: vox.com/politics/506401/midt…
The moment I knew Republicans were cooked this midterms: when PA voters at an Allentown gas station were name checking the Strait of Hormuz.
Tariffs were the original policy sin of this administration, and that’s only been magnified by a needless war. Trump did this to himself
On @CNN with @JohnBerman + @ForecasterEnten:
Silver lining: At least we’re finally acknowledging this was all about 2028 the whole time
First, Piker's connection to El-Sayed was supposed to cost him the primary. Then the small margin of victory supposedly proved he couldn't win the general. Now he's polling better, and the goalposts have moved again.
Why? As I wrote this summer, it was never just about the streamer. It was also about 2028, and the left's growing ability to go around traditional gatekeepers to get its message out. That was clear from our interviews. It's clear in the reaction to AOC's fundraiser comments.
But "moderates" essentially agree with what she said: El-Sayed's performance does have a direct effect on the potency of the "electability" argument in the 2028 primary.
That's why they've been so invested in litigating what counts as a win in the first place!
Didn’t mean to offend! But I guess I’ll explain more
This summer, Third Way ~guaranteed me that El-Sayed’s association with Piker would cost him the Michigan primary. And if not the primary, then the general.
That doesnt sound very big tent to me — and it’s hard to hear that and think the campaign that followed was all good faith. I believe many Moderate Democrats (and some in media) are invested in their most preferred outcome this November: Democrats do well broadly but progressives underperform or lose, helping prove a point abt electability ahead of crossroads 2028 moment. And I think the anti-Hasan campaign they kicked off was an attempt to lay that marker. They basically said so on our show.
That doesn’t mean there’s not substantive disagreement. Or that you and many others don’t have fair reason to dislike him personally. But the continued focus on every Piker utterance, particularly after El-Sayed has already distanced himself from the streamer, has been so disproportionate. Not to mention the tone of overt hostility from mainstream media. To me that’s best understood by what I said in the video above, the resentment of a changing landscape where traditional gatekeepers have less and less power
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Angie Nixon didn’t win her Democratic primary because of a weak state party. Voters chose her over a candidate who outspent her 10 to 1.
Also no one outside of the national media bubble saw her through the lens of “DSA,” which is part of the reason she beat back the GOP caricature of that label, and shows the limits of this sort of analysis.
Actual people chose an actual person — let’s start there
Ezra Klein on the electoral performance of El-Sayed, Peggy Flanagan and Angie Nixon:
Angie Nixon—I don't think there's any reason to look at the results and say it was a brilliant strategic move to run the DSA candidate in Florida.
Sometimes people take statements about electoral performance as moral statements about the worth of a candidate or the ideas. That's crazy in my view.
We’re breaking down results with @davidaxelrod on live on @substack today at 11 est!
Publishing in America, Actually feeds and @voxdotcom YouTube channel later today
100 percent. Epstein Files (and Iran war) were biggest things we heard from young men on why they turned on him. @jfradioshow, a Trump ally, said lack of transparency on Epstein was the administration’s biggest mistake and helped divide the base
Has virtually disappeared from media coverage but was a core part of why Trump’s credibility collapsed earlier this year
Young men episode at Trump’s UFC event:
youtube.com/watch?v=bP1uBnOy…
🧵 The midterm results speak to why our podcast is premised on charting our post-Trump future.
In removing Trump from the center, we were able to see several factors that shaped this week's winners and losers -- but also 2028 and beyond. We were also much closer to the electorate, cause they're sick of talking about Trump, too
Here are some of the episodes that speak to the results:
newyorker.com/culture/podcas…
The Democrats anti-corruption message
xitter.twitterapi.xyz/AsteadWH/status/211736…
In Virginia, we found that Democrats were landing on a message of anti-Trump corruption, which has only grown throughout the summer and fall.
youtube.com/watch?v=3-9LK0Uz…
Haley Stevens embarrassed herself. As did those who aided the GOP’s attempt to drive a wedge between Black and Arab communities.
From @CNN Election Day coverage with @wolfblitzer
El-Sayed derangement syndrome grew directly from Hasan Piker derangement syndrome. And both were more about media priorities and DC narrative jockeying than the election at hand
The most loyal Democratic constituency embracing Trump’s GOP in this climate was always unlikely. But many, like Stevens, saw ‘Black voters’ as a prop for their own ideological wishcasting
Said this somewhere, but Vance defending the Vivek ad was baffling. Just as his full throated defense of ICE shootings earlier this year. An example of Trump mimicry that does not serve his 2028 aspirations
Will be interesting to see if he sticks by those statements after tonight’s results (and as primary heats up). He will be asked
Democrat Amy Acton will be elected Ohio’s next governor, CNN’s Decision Desk projects, defeating Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. cnn.com/2026/11/03/politics/…
Trump’s collapse with Latino voters should (finally) end the idea that 2024 was some permanent realignment of the multiracial working class
His immigration overreach is paying an electoral cost
There’s been a big backlash to Trump’s deportation policies from Latino voters — and new numbers show 62% of Latinos now believe Trump supports deporting people broadly, up 26 percent sent the start of his second term.
Here’s what I don’t get: The GOP held up “mass deportation now” signs at its convention. Stephen Miller has been clear about his deportation goals. Why did it take until now to realize these threats were real?
Equis co-founder @stephanievalenc responds:
Trump’s collapse among Latino voters may end up being the story of the night. We explored that theme in an interview with @stephanievalenc of Equis Research. Watch:
youtube.com/watch?v=OGixndAv…
And we ended our reporting in Nevada, where the Las Vegas culinary union is at the center of another state trifecta fight
youtube.com/watch?v=F68AdaKg…
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Personally, I find the establishment dismissal of Angie Nixon wild to watch! CBC PAC went harder for Haley Stevens. Still no Emilys List back. No endorsements from the 2028ers.
Good reminder that you don’t need to campaign with Piker to be dismissed as extreme. Supporting progressive policy (as a black woman) seems to be enough.
On now with @BrianLehrer! Taking questions w/ @brigidbergin
And joining @Acosta / @katiecouric livestream at 9p
Lots of places this Election Day:
12-4p @CNN
7-8 @BrianLehrer @WNYC
11p-12a @CNN streaming
Tomorrow analysis: @today_explained @voxdotcom
Recent polls:
77% of Democrats think Israel committed a genocide in Gaza (poll.qu.edu/images/polling/u…)
74% of Democrats oppose “additional economic or military support for Israel.” (nytimes.com/interactive/2026…)
Only 13% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Israel, less than the % of Democrats who wanted all abortions to be illegal (nbcnews.com/politics/2026-el…)
Cited our America Actually reporting from Republican events also, where the issue comes up repeatedly
The scandalized coverage of El-Sayed’s position doesn’t match the numbers. And Trump’s announcement today should also be viewed through the lens
On U.S. politics and Israel, Astead Herndon (@asteadWH) just made a point on a CNN panel that I've been waiting for someone to make --
Pro-Palestinian views that are often portrayed as "extreme" or "fringe" simply aren't.
E.g. this Economist poll on the genocide question:
