CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFGM, $HFEQ, $HFMF, $HFND | Fmr @Bridgewater IC | One of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments not investment advice
New York, NY
Joined March 2022
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Given the nature of this platform, it is hard to know what kind of track record folks have in making major macro calls.
Here's a look at my track record over the last few years. Thread.
Excited to see the @SkydioHQ team raise to keep innovating!
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Congrats to the team @SkydioHQ for the $1.2bln investment at a $5.2bln pre-money from @axon_enterprise to create a one of a kind drone-based first responder.
axon.com/newsroom/press-rele…
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OpenAI's $13.5bln in operating losses (inc. stock comp) on $10bln in revenue is not a particularly compelling business model.
wsj.com/business/earnings/op…
Backed Into A Corner
Improving employment momentum and >4% headline inflation solidifies a meaningful hiking cycle ahead, creating a risk to asset prices for an economy highly reliant on continued rallies.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p…
Exciting news of a big up-round for @shieldaitech in order to complete a compelling acquisition!
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Congrats to @shieldaitech which announced a major fundraise at a $28.8bln valuation and acquisition of @EchodyneCorp, an industry leading radar company. Amazing to see the growth
shield.ai/shield-to-acquire-…
anthropic rn
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Should have said "Crawling to the Starting Line"
xitter.twitterapi.xyz/DeItaone/status/212011…
Asia’s US AI Bet
Timely export data from Asian exporters benefitting from the US AI boom shows no signs of slowing, but the integration highlights just how swiftly any hiccup could drag down the global economy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p…
Take Global Macro HF. Solid Sharpe (gross of fees) and ~0.4 correlation means its clearly diversifying. But plenty of times its highly correlated and other times not.
For instance this year - diversifying as the war ramped up, while more correlated in the last couple months.
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Often folks forget that just because an asset or a strategy is diversifying *over time* doesn't mean its diversifying *all the time.*
Limping to the Starting Line
Anthropic’s IPO expectations have collapsed as growth and profitability measures continue to disappoint, risking a more full scale re-rating of the AI mania critical to keeping the economy going.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p…
The big risk is not that AI underwhelms vs. elevated expectations, its that asset price weakness kicks off a spending pullback by households who have been increasing their dissaving to keep up spending growth for years.
cnbc.com/video/2026/11/06/ma…
The week @CultishCreative turned the tables on @AahanPrometheus and I for the Excess Returns pod. Talked through some little longer-term perspective on the economy and markets than our weekly show, and squeezed in a little fun along the way. Enjoy!
youtu.be/Cp5xnh4COXg?si=g9cD…
Everyone in the world is issuing more debt, US Treasury included. The implications of all that issuance, free on the blog app this week:
xitter.twitterapi.xyz/BobEUnlimited/status/2…
The Shitload of Treasury Issuance Coming
The first QRA release shows far more marketable borrowing coming in the first quarter than in recent years, making it increasingly difficult for The House to manipulate the curve.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p…
Constrained CAPEX in the near-term is the biggest risk to the overall market, far more so than disappointment of not eventually getting enough end user demand. That cause CAPEX hits now.
From MacroTalk this week:
Bloomberg: "Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1 Trillion"
What happened to the $2tln valuation? Oh yeah, a dose of reality. And maybe more to come.
Another great MacroTalk with @AahanPrometheus where we discussed:
- Supply *and* demand challenges for the AI mania
- How a correction turns to a bear market
- The simple tool to heal weekend bar fight facial injuries.
youtu.be/EMtTSXRR9aI?si=J9yi…
Spot start on CNBC Overtime today at 440pm ET. Fate of the AI mania after yesterday's moves is on the agenda. Check it out!
A flattening growth curve is the worst thing you can see in the middle of a mania. h/t @tickerplus
