Brett Erickson

THIS MORNING: So far today, two vessels have been reported as struck by Iran to the UKMTO. What they tell us is a continuance of the same pattern that has become clear over the past month. UKMTO 203-26 reports a vessel being struck in the Persian Gulf on 11/10, resulting in multiple casualties amongst the crew-members. UKMTO 204-26 reports a vessel being struck of the coast of UAE at Ra’s al Khaymah, resulting in the vessel being struck “in the engine room”, likely leading to the vessel being disabled. While only a FRACTION of the actual amount of vessels that are struck by Iran are reported to the UKMTO, those that do continue to show two key facts: 1) Iran is consistently striking now OUTSIDE the Strait of Hormuz 2) The strikes are consistently DEVASTATING, resulting in crew member casualties, fires, disablement, blackouts, and even outright sinking

Unfortunately I think Iran is going to come to the conclusion that the only way to end the Iran War and achieve victory is via more war and destruction on both sides. Unless Trump is on the verge of becoming Herbert Hoover, he won’t make any deal with Iran that he sticks to.

You’re an idiot.

THERE IS NO “STATUS QUO”

People are EGREGIOUSLY misreading the state of affairs between the United States and Iran. Nothing indicates that it is “de-escalating” in any way after the midterms: On 11/4, Bessent said we would continue Economic Outcast to cut off Iran by “air, land, and sea”. Later on 11/4, new Iran-related sanctions released. 11/6, new Iran-related sanctions released. 11/7, TF Iron Gate established. 11/10, Rubio calls Irans demands “outrageous” and “ridiculous”. 11/12 Trump states economic warfare will continue and no deal is coming. ——— The continuance of economic warfare on Iran is not “status quo”. It is actively escalating, and actively pushing Iran to the point where they HAVE TO escalate. Trump may want to be done with this war, but he’s unwilling to make the kind of deal that is necessary to end the war… So the Iran War will therefore continue to race towards inevitable Iranian escalation.

“Understanding Task Force Iron Gate and the Multiple Blockades” On November 7th, the United States and CENTCOM announced the establishment of Task Force Iron Gate. This TF would seek to bolster the naval blockade in Hormuz with a “land blockade” of Iran. Now the problem here is obvious: Iran has 3,600 miles of land borders… Good luck with that land blockade. This, however, would be an inaccurate understanding of the purpose of Task Force Iron Gate, as well as the “sanctions-enforced” land and air blockade that currently exists in Iran. To be clear, the strategy of economic warfare will NOT work to produce an American victory in this war. I have said this everywhere from the NYT, FT, WaPo, Reuters, etc. It will not work… But we should also seek to have a genuine understanding of what is being attempted here, as many people are mischaracterizing it either intentionally or unintentionally. The naval blockade in Hormuz, broadly speaking, IS iron-clad. Very little Iranian oil and other products are leaving Hormuz. This much is absolutely true, spare for a vessel here and there every month or two. The advocates for further economic warfare, however, are well aware that their promises to President Trump that the naval blockade would crumble Iran in “13 days” was a blatant failure. It has now been 7 months since the first iteration of the blockade was established on April 13th… and Iran is still standing. Easily. So as a result, the United States under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is looking for ways to ADD PRESSURE… and this is where sanctions, sectoral sanctions, and TF Iron Gate come into play. In the past several months, the United States has imposed relevant sectoral sanctions on the Iranian sectors of: Aviation, Shipping, Rail, and the Automotive industry. In addition to this, they also individually sanctioned 27 Iranian airlines on October 1st. And on November 7th… imposed Task Force Iron Gate. Despite this, Iran continues to fly into several countries regardless of the aviation sectoral sanctions and individual sanctions… And they also DON’T fly into several countries that they did prior to these. As a result… that hurts Iran’s economy FURTHER than it would under JUST the naval blockade without the sectoral and individual sanctions. Yes, planes still fly, but they fly at greater costs, less efficiency, and on less routes. This same premise applies to the sectoral and individual sanctions across the shipping, rail, and automotive sectors as well. Through U.S. sanctions and sectoral sanctions, the United States is seeking to establish a “de facto land blockade” of Iran… to the extent that they CAN. Of course, they are not so delusional to believe this will LITERALLY stop all trade with Iran, but it WILL cause many individuals and companies to cut off their trade with Iran. This leaves a smaller pool of potential companies for Iran to trade with, allowing the companies to cause higher prices… and hurting the Iranian economy as a result. This is the same premise that Task Force Iron Gate is operating under. No, the Trump Administration does NOT actually think that it will literally create a total land blockade of Iran… but thinking this would be a significant misunderstanding of the realities behind the strategy. Washington is looking to MORE. To add MORE. To pressure MORE than they were prior to Task Force Iron Gate. How much more doesn’t “necessarily” matter as long as it’s MORE. Now will this work? No. The premise of economic warfare in the Iran War is fundamentally misunderstanding the fragility of the Iranian government, and wildly overestimating the ability of the Iranian population to overthrow the government even if they wanted to… which after Minab, the blockade, and threatening to wipe out their entire civilization multiple times… they don’t. But this hopefully helps you understand the LOGIC… the thought process behind Task Force Iron Gate and the “de facto” land and air blockades.

UPDATE: Following multiple new instances of blatant FDD influence and control over the American strategy in the Iran War, particularly relating to the announcement and foreknowledge of Task Force Iron Gate, a new edition of the FDD deep dive will be shared in the coming days. But in case you missed this video, you NEED to watch it… it’s one of the most eye-opening deep dives of the entire war, and brings an incredible amount of research and sourcing into a single video. Throw it on 2x speed, give me 15 minutes of your time… and prepare to be blown away by the amount of control the Israeli Lobby has had on the Iran War strategy.

NEW ANALYSIS: In his latest Truth Social post this morning, President Trump indicates that “We don’t need a deal with Iran.” Unfortunately, this seems to be the overwhelming consensus in the Trump Administration now that between the three courses of action - a deal, economic warfare, and military escalation - that the economic warfare pathway is what is being pursued for the foreseeable future. But what President Trump fails to understand is that there IS NO “status quo” like many in his inner circle claims there to be. Economic warfare, both on the American side and the Iranian side, is inherently a deteriorating environment. As more and more pain is imposed on the global economy and the Iranian economy on a daily basis, this will inevitably force either American capitulation, or Iranian escalation. It is a Trojan Horse strategy to ostensibly force Iranian escalation to give the United States the public veil of “self defense” when they then respond to Iran’s climb up the escalation ladder.