Wow
Almost a certainty that Jensen will be let go
$nvda
Caught On Video: Jensen Huang Reportedly Had Second Affair - This Time With His Own Nvidia Executive zerohedge.com/ai/caught-vide…
225
Well this surely seals the deal for Jensen at $nvda
Don’t see how he can stay on as CEO. Will be a lot of pressure and scrutiny on him now.
NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG HAD SECOND ALLEGED AFFAIR WITH COMPANY EXECUTIVE
Nvidia ($NVDA ) CEO Jensen Huang reportedly had an extramarital relationship with Kimberly Powell, the company's VP of Healthcare, according to five former employees cited by The New York Times.
The two were reportedly seen being affectionate at Nvidia's March conference, raising potential conflict-of-interest concerns.
The allegations emerge as Nvidia's board investigates Huang's separate affair with a woman US intelligence identified as a suspected Chinese spy.
Nvidia declined to comment on the new report.
203
!00% agree. over half of the sell side reports is just backwards looking info.
Always just a lagging indicator as to what has already happened.
More or less its just a conformation of information you already know.
Sellside research has gotten really bad. I can’t tell whether analyst quality has deteriorated, intellectual honesty has disappeared, or nobody gives a shit anymore. Maybe it’s just about driving trading volumes. Whatever the reason, it’s become almost impossible to trust. Useful for understanding the narrative others are trading on, occasionally entertaining, but ultimately just reactionary garbage masquerading as independent analysis…
1
312
Yeah let’s continue hiking rates
71% OF AMERICANS SAY THEIR FINANCES ARE STAGNATING OR GETTING WORSE
A new Achieve survey reveals growing financial pressure on US households.
34% say their finances have worsened over the past year, while 37% report no improvement.
54% rely on credit card balances to cover essential expenses, 38% struggle to make debt payments on time, and 33% have missed bill deadlines in the past three months.
Only 29% say their financial situation has improved.
1
338
Yes it has been a good short along with most of the other neoclouds. The long hyperscalers/short neocloud has been an excellent pair.
Covered the shorts and still running the longs.
Contemplating adding some short exposure again on bounces
Shorting $IREN over the past couple months and over the next coming months is such a great trade
2
411
As per MS Securities Lending data, short interest across the Russell 2000 constituents across all three major HF cohorts now sits >90 %-tile - with the trade emerging broadly as a consensus short in the aggregate HF portfolio. Despite signs of moderation emerging into month-end as HFs began to unwind shorts in the trade over the finalỗẠ sessions in October, HFs remain along the most bearishly positioned in the trade versus the last year, leaving it susceptible to sharp moves higher.
From here, we like $IWM upside into month-end. Nov seasonality is strong, CTAs are buyers, positioning is low, short base is high, and IWM looks like the cheapest vol on the board ... 27Nov 290 calls outright screen attractive.
GS
4
326
Still running long $goog $meta $amzn $spcx $msft
Sold a bunch of 30 delta calls against them for December.
Hedged with a short $qqq into CPI. But will wait to see what the inflation drivers are.
84% odds for another Hike
Still long $GLD. Set up looks good over a high time frame.
Have built out longs across clean energy. $eose $flnc $csiq $te $flsr $sun. Bipartisan issue. Good to see the vote last night in the senate.
337
$EOSE $FLNC $CSIQ $NRGV $TSLA $F
The Democrats’ midterm victories are likely a “net positive” for the battery energy storage system (BESS) sector but questions remain around interconnection reforms and data centre development, according to Derrick Flakoll, senior policy associate for North America at BloombergNEF
“Overall, the midterms are likely to be a net positive to BESS over the next two years as newly unified Democratic governments in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and likely Arizona pass more aggressive renewable and energy storage standards.”
energy-storage.news/bloomber…
22
1,577
Wow. This was my thought for the day too.
Data centers are still going to get built but just maybe not in the IS.
The beauty is they can essentially be built anywhere.
If the dems get too picky you’ll just see DCs move offshore
This quoted post is unavailable.
202
Thoughts for the week
Going to be keep a close eye on memory, chips and optics going fed. Charts are horrible for now but getting close to some big levels
data centres are still going to get built, just maybe not in the US.
End of the day they’re going to go somewhere. There will also be someone that steps up to the plate and wants a data centre built. Whether it’s a different community, state or country.
$sndk $mu $dram $lyte
CPI this week. I think a December hike isn’t as clear cut as the mkt think. Currently 76.8% for a hike
Sizing up the longs across clean energy $eose $flnc $csiq $sun $flat with the dems sweep. Really washed out sector but I like a bottom forming here.
Long Gold. Like the chart. Structural floor. Debt concerns keep the debasement trade alive.
3
424
Opened a long on Gold today
Gold long case right now:
Central banks still buying aggressively. structural floor is intact
Already corrected ~25-30% from the Jan high and holding $4k
Fiscal/debt concerns keep the debasement hedge alive
Rate-hike risk is largely priced; once the cycle peaks the setup improves
Medium-term bias remains up.
Bounced off the 100w MA
Nicely above the 10/20 EMA
Stop at 3900
1
370
$EOSE
Visual look at Revenues and margins from late 2024 to now and then my model estimates of 2027.
Seen a very clear step up in Revenue in Q4 '25
As volume has stepped up margins have significantly improved.
That margin step up each Q is noticeable.
Inefficient manufacturing at TC, cube, field and software upgrades all having a drag of COGS
There is a very clear plan and path to margins inflecting.
As DawnOS upgrades finish up, Thornhill fires up and ideally Indensity starts to come off the line
Biggest question which investors and the mkt are asking is : ORDERS/BACKLOG
For these estimates to come to fruition then Eos needs to be entering 2027 with more commercial traction.
$EOSE
I've been updating the model too but honestly a bit hesitant to post any numbers.
It's not difficult to see some multiple expansion and a higher valuation on more volume.
But it is kind of a pointless exercise at the moment.
Eos doesn't have to backlog to support big numbers beyond 2027.
modelling over 9GWh of shipments in 28/29 for over $2b in revenues. If the business is profitable too then it is very easy to see Eos worth a lot more than it is today.
But there is an evident lack in confidence that Eos can convert the pipeline. Sellside was really trying to get a sense of 2027 on the call.
$EOSE
Thoughts
The manufacturing side of this story has quietly improved. Revenue and margins have been tracking closer to what management has guided. Opex has stayed disciplined. They’re making the hard decisions on line moves and cost out initiatives. Operationally, this year has been better than the market is giving them credit for. That part I don’t dispute.
But I’m increasingly frustrated because the single thing that actually matters for underwriting 2027 and 2028 still isn’t happening at the pace required: orders.
Exiting 2026 with roughly $650 million in backlog makes it extremely difficult to get comfortable with the out years. Volume is what drives margin inflection. Volume is what reduces cash burn. Volume is what lets the market start assigning a real multiple instead of treating every quarter as a survival exercise. Without meaningful conversion of the pipeline, particularly the 3.5 GWh of latestage opportunities that were flagged on the call, the model stays fragile.
Joe highlighted those nearterm opportunities multiple times, specifically pointing to the next 4–5 weeks. More than half waiting on financing, the rest in contract negotiations. I want to believe those are real and that customers are comfortable enough with the field data and the product to move into financing and negotiations. But given the history of setting expectations and then having timelines slip, it’s hard not to view the commentary as raising the bar for disappointment if nothing materializes.
The spotlight is already on execution. Leadership changes elsewhere in the sector have shown that C suite performance is not immune when results lag the narrative.
This is still a chicken and egg problem. Field data is needed to unlock larger commercial wins. Larger commercial wins are needed to generate the volume that improves field data, utilization, and gross margins. They’re managing cash carefully, moving line capacity, prioritizing certain projects, leaning on remaining DOE support, PA grants, PTCs, and the revolver where available.
That is rational in the short term. But every quarter that passes without clear order conversion increases the probability that the market will interpret any future capital raise as defensive rather than opportunistic. I don’t want to be in a position where a raise is required just to bridge to a backlog that still hasn’t grown enough to support the ramp.
The TAM is real. The technology has a place, especially as grid security, domestic content, and non flammable long duration storage become higher priorities. Manufacturing improvements are visible. The economics are trending in the right direction on paper. None of that changes the fact that commercial conversion remains the bottleneck.
Until the backlog moves meaningfully higher and the near term opportunities start turning into signed, scheduled work, it’s very hard to get excited about the multiple expansion that the operational progress would otherwise justify.
Price has not reflected the better operational cadence this year. Part of that is sector wide risk off. Part of it is residual credibility damage from prior misses and the way previous capital raises were structured. Both can reverse, but only if the order book starts doing the heavy lifting. I’m still constructive on the longer term setup if they can close some of these opportunities and demonstrate that the commercial side is finally catching up to the manufacturing side. Right now, though, the frustration is that we’re still mostly waiting on the one catalyst that actually changes the underwriting math.
WEN ORDERS.
1
21
2,452
$EOSE
Thoughts
The manufacturing side of this story has quietly improved. Revenue and margins have been tracking closer to what management has guided. Opex has stayed disciplined. They’re making the hard decisions on line moves and cost out initiatives. Operationally, this year has been better than the market is giving them credit for. That part I don’t dispute.
But I’m increasingly frustrated because the single thing that actually matters for underwriting 2027 and 2028 still isn’t happening at the pace required: orders.
Exiting 2026 with roughly $650 million in backlog makes it extremely difficult to get comfortable with the out years. Volume is what drives margin inflection. Volume is what reduces cash burn. Volume is what lets the market start assigning a real multiple instead of treating every quarter as a survival exercise. Without meaningful conversion of the pipeline, particularly the 3.5 GWh of latestage opportunities that were flagged on the call, the model stays fragile.
Joe highlighted those nearterm opportunities multiple times, specifically pointing to the next 4–5 weeks. More than half waiting on financing, the rest in contract negotiations. I want to believe those are real and that customers are comfortable enough with the field data and the product to move into financing and negotiations. But given the history of setting expectations and then having timelines slip, it’s hard not to view the commentary as raising the bar for disappointment if nothing materializes.
The spotlight is already on execution. Leadership changes elsewhere in the sector have shown that C suite performance is not immune when results lag the narrative.
This is still a chicken and egg problem. Field data is needed to unlock larger commercial wins. Larger commercial wins are needed to generate the volume that improves field data, utilization, and gross margins. They’re managing cash carefully, moving line capacity, prioritizing certain projects, leaning on remaining DOE support, PA grants, PTCs, and the revolver where available.
That is rational in the short term. But every quarter that passes without clear order conversion increases the probability that the market will interpret any future capital raise as defensive rather than opportunistic. I don’t want to be in a position where a raise is required just to bridge to a backlog that still hasn’t grown enough to support the ramp.
The TAM is real. The technology has a place, especially as grid security, domestic content, and non flammable long duration storage become higher priorities. Manufacturing improvements are visible. The economics are trending in the right direction on paper. None of that changes the fact that commercial conversion remains the bottleneck.
Until the backlog moves meaningfully higher and the near term opportunities start turning into signed, scheduled work, it’s very hard to get excited about the multiple expansion that the operational progress would otherwise justify.
Price has not reflected the better operational cadence this year. Part of that is sector wide risk off. Part of it is residual credibility damage from prior misses and the way previous capital raises were structured. Both can reverse, but only if the order book starts doing the heavy lifting. I’m still constructive on the longer term setup if they can close some of these opportunities and demonstrate that the commercial side is finally catching up to the manufacturing side. Right now, though, the frustration is that we’re still mostly waiting on the one catalyst that actually changes the underwriting math.
WEN ORDERS.