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Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly
"I think this is all nonsense."
[ You think it's all nonsense? ]
"All nonsense. I think that there's something else completely going on here. ... What I think is happening is that token maxing is over. The open weight models are taking big market share. I think these companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, and that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want."
[ Wow. ]
"That's what I think is going on."
"Honestly, I think this whole Terminator thing is garbage. That's for sure."
Dwarkesh Patel tells Jake Sullivan that Anthropic is 12 hours ahead of China, because startups with a few dozen people got that kind of access to the labs' source code within 12 hours
"...the idea for racing right now is that we could beat China."
"...AI is fundamentally just IP... the weights themselves, the algorithm and secrets... can just be easily stolen."
"And we know that there's, you know, startups with dozens of employees that have recently started that have been able to penetrate to this level of access to the source code or to the Slack where these algorithm secrets are discussed, Anthropic and OpenAI."
"...within like 12 hours of getting started. So you're in a situation where really Anthropic is not 12 months or 6 months or 3 months ahead of China. It's 12 hours ahead of China."
Dan Niles bets dinner that $NVDA goes up on a beat and raise even if Jensen Huang is out, because Apple's stock didn't care when Steve Jobs died
[ Zach: Clearly it is all Jensen Huang right now and how that stock's trading in the short term. ]
"I don't know that it is, because what happens if they beat and raise next week?"
"Do you think people are going to care? They didn't care when Steve Jobs passed away."
"...I'm telling you this right now. I will bet you dinner next time we meet. If they beat and raise with an 11 PE, that stock is going up."
"Because there's 40,000 people at Nvidia. Do you think Jensen's the only one at the company?"
[ Zach: No. ]
"Think there's not other people there designing chips that are competent?"
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Ft @dwarkesh_sp on The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer
Link: ceointerviews.ai/interview/3…
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Jensen Huang told Bloomberg he hopes to still be earning his keep at Nvidia 20 years from now, in a documentary that premiered the day before he resigned
"20 years from now, I hope I stay healthy and I hope I continue to earn my keep"
Dan Niles bets dinner that $NVDA goes up on a beat and raise even if Jensen Huang is out, because Apple's stock didn't care when Steve Jobs died
[ Zach: Clearly it is all Jensen Huang right now and how that stock's trading in the short term. ]
"I don't know that it is, because what happens if they beat and raise next week?"
"Do you think people are going to care? They didn't care when Steve Jobs passed away."
"...I'm telling you this right now. I will bet you dinner next time we meet. If they beat and raise with an 11 PE, that stock is going up."
"Because there's 40,000 people at Nvidia. Do you think Jensen's the only one at the company?"
[ Zach: No. ]
"Think there's not other people there designing chips that are competent?"
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Ft @emilychangtv on The Circuit from @business
The whole Jensen Huang conversation, every quote on the record:
ceointerviews.ai/interview/3…
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Export control analyst Gregory Allen says Jensen Huang called Nvidia an F1 car built around himself as the driver, and nobody else there is set up to lead
"I think this is a story of hubris. Jensen Huang, who has accomplished so much in his career, thought he was untouchable and made a number of mistakes in his personal life, and ones I believe affect U.S. national security."
"Jensen Huang has previously described the company as the F1 car built around him as the driver. Everyone else in the company is a specialized component, an engine, a wheel, an axle, a turbocharger. No one else is set up to be a leader."
"This poor governance extends to the board of directors that was set up when Nvidia was a gaming company. Now they are at the center of global geopolitics and U.S. national security, and no one on that board of directors has meaningful foreign policy experience."
Scott Galloway says a normal board would put Jensen Huang on leave until the independent counsel reports back, and Nvidia is keeping him on as CEO
"Now here's the issue from a governance standpoint. It was very interesting today. They said he's going to continue to operate as CEO and they've hired a special counsel to investigate it."
"Typically on a board, what you would do in anything of this gravity, you would ask him to take a leave of absence until you got the report back from the independent counsel."
"The board is human. And I did some research on the board today. And it's a group of what I'll call talented, accomplished executives, but not what you would typically see on the board of the most valuable company in the world."
[ Kara: I don't know one. They're mid level. ]
Ft @Gregory_C_Allen on @BloombergTV
Full interview with Gregory Allen, every quote searchable:
ceointerviews.ai/interview/3…
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D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria says his pick to replace Jensen Huang is Intel's Lip-Bu Tan, since Intel is broken six ways to Sunday
"This is a really good CEO at a really bad company."
Ft @gilluria on @theinformation
The full 8 min conversation, searchable quote by quote:
ceointerviews.ai/interview/3…
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Dan Niles bets dinner that $NVDA goes up on a beat and raise even if Jensen Huang is out, because Apple's stock didn't care when Steve Jobs died
[ Zach: Clearly it is all Jensen Huang right now and how that stock's trading in the short term. ]
"I don't know that it is, because what happens if they beat and raise next week?"
"Do you think people are going to care? They didn't care when Steve Jobs passed away."
"...I'm telling you this right now. I will bet you dinner next time we meet. If they beat and raise with an 11 PE, that stock is going up."
"Because there's 40,000 people at Nvidia. Do you think Jensen's the only one at the company?"
[ Zach: No. ]
"Think there's not other people there designing chips that are competent?"
Ft @DanielTNiles on @coinage_media with @zGuz
Full interview, every quote searchable:
ceointerviews.ai/interview/3…
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GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik says if US data centers slow down they just get built in Calgary on cheap natural gas
[ Joe: If things slow down even more, you're not worried about that from GE's perspective? ]
"Well, I would say the question is less whether it slows down and more where does it get built. You know, at the moment, if we're debating between whether it's Texas or Ohio, that's one debate, but it doesn't have to be in the US. It can get built in Calgary. There's a lot of inexpensive natural gas there."
"So I think at the end of the day, this infrastructure is going to be built. The real question is where."
[ Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, the day before ]
"We certainly don't want this infrastructure going to places outside the US, which is what will naturally happen because the demand for compute is there."
Dan Niles says Goldman's $300 billion Anthropic forecast for 2030 is Cisco in 2000 all over again
[ Charles: A lot of people are holding on to a lot of great tech names that fundamentally look like they should be screaming buys ]
"No, they're not. They're not screaming buys. That's the point. When you have the growth rate slowing like this... Anthropic, right? And we just walked through it. 145%, 45%, 25%. We don't know what the profitability is, right?"
[ Charles: Is it reasonable to expect a company to go from 0 to $50 billion in six months and keep that kind of a pace? ]
"Well, Charles, the problem is when you have people at Goldman Sachs putting out these forecasts of it's going to be $300 billion out in 2030, I go, this is like Cisco in 2000 saying we're going to grow sustainably at 30 to 50% for the next several years."
"You can't, when your business is accelerating, say, hey, look at my growth rate, and then when it's decelerating, oh, don't look at that, it had to slow down. You can't do that."
Ft @GEVernova at B20 USA with Politico
Full interview: ceointerviews.ai/interview/3…
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Max Levchin recalls an investor asking what PayPal would do about chargebacks, and a year later fraud was costing it $10 million a month
"They're like, 'Oh, you have no idea what that means, do you?'"
Dan Niles says Goldman's $300 billion Anthropic forecast for 2030 is Cisco in 2000 all over again
[ Charles: A lot of people are holding on to a lot of great tech names that fundamentally look like they should be screaming buys ]
"No, they're not. They're not screaming buys. That's the point. When you have the growth rate slowing like this... Anthropic, right? And we just walked through it. 145%, 45%, 25%. We don't know what the profitability is, right?"
[ Charles: Is it reasonable to expect a company to go from 0 to $50 billion in six months and keep that kind of a pace? ]
"Well, Charles, the problem is when you have people at Goldman Sachs putting out these forecasts of it's going to be $300 billion out in 2030, I go, this is like Cisco in 2000 saying we're going to grow sustainably at 30 to 50% for the next several years."
"You can't, when your business is accelerating, say, hey, look at my growth rate, and then when it's decelerating, oh, don't look at that, it had to slow down. You can't do that."
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CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator says he's canceled his 10b5 stock sale plan, asked on air about $3.3 billion of founder selling since the $CRWV IPO
"So this is going to be the first time I've said this. I've canceled my 10b5."
CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator says when high yield got expensive he raised $9 billion in prepayments and deposits instead
[ Jim: You indicated there's another kind of debt to the company that actually is basically trading at par. ]
"That is correct. Our asset level debt has basically been rock solid through this entire thing."
"We're about to launch another asset level debt in the next week or two that has already been rated high investment grade. You know, we suspect that that will be underwritten in the market at a 7 to a 7.5% interest."
"You saw that in our earnings when I said, okay, high yield debt is getting expensive, we'll go to prepayments, which we have done in the past, and we raised $9 billion worth of prepayments and deposits."
Ft @jimcramer on @SquawkStreet. Stay for the bond question
The whole Michael Intrator conversation, every quote on the record:
ceointerviews.ai/interview/3…
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Scott Galloway says a normal board would put Jensen Huang on leave until the independent counsel reports back, and Nvidia is keeping him on as CEO
"Now here's the issue from a governance standpoint. It was very interesting today. They said he's going to continue to operate as CEO and they've hired a special counsel to investigate it."
"Typically on a board, what you would do in anything of this gravity, you would ask him to take a leave of absence until you got the report back from the independent counsel."
"The board is human. And I did some research on the board today. And it's a group of what I'll call talented, accomplished executives, but not what you would typically see on the board of the most valuable company in the world."
[ Kara: I don't know one. They're mid level. ]
Ft @profgalloway and @karaswisher on Pivot
Every word Scott Galloway said here, timestamped and searchable:
ceointerviews.ai/interview/3…
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CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator says when high yield got expensive he raised $9 billion in prepayments and deposits instead
[ Jim: You indicated there's another kind of debt to the company that actually is basically trading at par. ]
"That is correct. Our asset level debt has basically been rock solid through this entire thing."
"We're about to launch another asset level debt in the next week or two that has already been rated high investment grade. You know, we suspect that that will be underwritten in the market at a 7 to a 7.5% interest."
"You saw that in our earnings when I said, okay, high yield debt is getting expensive, we'll go to prepayments, which we have done in the past, and we raised $9 billion worth of prepayments and deposits."
Ft @jimcramer on @SquawkStreet
Full interview with Michael Intrator, every quote searchable:
ceointerviews.ai/interview/3…
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