Tsachy Mishal (@CapitalObserver) profile picture

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Joined April 2009
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Elon would give himself a raise
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Don't forget that around $70 billion will be needed to be freed up for the Anthropic IPO, over the next week or so
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The fact that we had a mini capitulation last week makes the current setup more difficult
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What are the chances that $NVDA does poorly but the AI trade does well? FD bagholding a short put position in $NVDA and started buying stock again this morning
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Hedge funds are now positioned bearishly, which in the past has been quite bullish. MS, the largest prime broker, reported their clients nets at 42%. What is strange is that the public/ passive guys are still positioned bullishly as seen below. Unusual to have such a contrast
Replying to @CapitalObserver
No change from last week, but guessing this doesn't include yesterday
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While the 2 groups don't usually line up perfectly, when one is at an extreme the other is usually similar. Now they are polar opposites.
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An entire generation of investors are about to learn that often the stock prices turn before the fundamentals
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Didn't $MSFT say they were capacity constrained?
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So what is OpenAI worth?
*INVESTORS SAID TO DISCUSS ANTHROPIC IPO VALUE OF $1.2T-$1.3T
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This is you regular reminder that rather than sell any $ARM, Softbank chose to go on margin to invest in Open AI and datacenters
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Leopold might be a degen, but Masayoshi Son is the OG degen
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The index finally shook loose and caught up to the stocks
The market structure is one of the strangest I have ever seen. Amongst active investors you have a large cohort (pods) that are unable to take any pain, which leads to massive moves in individual names. You have quants that also rely heavily on the momentum factor
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👁👁
Yesterday's equity put/call ratio was .44, lowest since late September.
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Citrini made the software low with his asinine doomsday scenario. Might actually make me buy semis for a trade if we get a nice panicky puke
CITRINI: “.. Given the enormous chasm between revenues and capex, the asymmetric risk is no longer to the upside, but to the downside.” @citrini citriniresearch.com/p/state-…
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Dipped a toe into $NVDA. Will add into more panic
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If $CVS is a monopoly, it's the worst monopoly ever
CVS sees the writing on the wall: Americans want to break up the giant corporations dominating health care. But this CEO is not fooling us—this lets CVS continue to own a massive conglomerate and rip people off. We must break up these monopolies and put patients over profits.
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The market structure is one of the strangest I have ever seen. Amongst active investors you have a large cohort (pods) that are unable to take any pain, which leads to massive moves in individual names. You have quants that also rely heavily on the momentum factor
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Add to that the already natural herding mentality of investors and the moves in individual names are shocking. At the same time the move to passive & sytematic investing, plus buybacks keeps the index remarkably calm
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Anyone know what $CVS said on the call that was so bad?
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November & December have been weak-ish in recent years, in otherwise very strong years. The setup is a little different this year, in that we had big sentiment highs going into year end & that is not the case this year
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On the plus side we don't have the extreme positive sentiment of recent years, but on the negative side there is an $80 billion IPO on deck.
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What a way to announce you need to raise $20 billion and make your stock go up
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If you bought $ORCL +10% on the announcement that they "only" needed to raise $20 billion, you may be the sucker at the poker table
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Everyone is bearish Everyone:
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AAII asset allocation index sees equity allocations push to 71.8%, the highest since December 2017 (and before that July 2000), while cash levels fall to 13.3%, the least since December 2017 (and before that December 1999). Bonds at 14.9% remain in the range since the start of 2021, around the long-run average.
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What a way to announce you need to raise $20 billion and make your stock go up
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