Chloe Chaplain

***EXCLUSIVE by @MishalHusain*** David Cameron says Britain should NOT rejoin the EU The former prime minister warns Andy Burnham that starting a conversation about rejoining would be “very long and painful” Speaking in a Bloomberg interview, Cameron urges Burnham not to trigger another “decade-long debate about whether should be in or out.” He also says the UK should not enter a customs union with the EU As the PM who led the Remain campaign in 2016, Cameron’s intervention will be seen as significant. He says Britain’s economic problems aren’t due to Brexit “Today, instead of launching an argument about rejoining, which I think would be a very long and painful argument, and who knows where it would end up, instead of that, focus on how do we be the best friend, best neighbour, best partner,” Cameron says The former PM also warns Burnham that talking about Britain rejoining could hamper future negotiations “If you start endlessly producing this idea that we’re actually on a path to rejoining, I think you’re in danger of getting a less good partnership deal because of course the EU countries will just think: well, these guys are gonna rejoin anyway, so what’s the point in giving them a good partnership deal… If you’re not going to, you know, commit to trying to make the partnership stronger because you’re flirting with rejoining, I think there’s some dangers there,” Cameron says “I don’t think actually necessarily joining a customs union is the right answer. If you look at the economic problems we have today, I don’t really think they’ve got anything to do with Brexit at all. I mean, our economic problems are we are overspending, over-borrowing, over-taxing, over-regulated, and far too much being spent on working age welfare. Those are a set of problems that have nothing to do with Brexit. We need a government that actually gets spending under control, gets taxes down, helps entrepreneurs, deals with our borrowing problem, reforms the welfare, and massively deregulates so we can build houses, build infrastructure. None of those have got anything to do with Europe. So that’s sort of, in a way, that’s my point. Do we really want to go into another decade-long debate about whether we should be in or out, when actually we should deal with our own problems while making the partnership model work?” “I fought the campaign to stay in on an amended basis, and I obviously wanted to win that campaign. I was desperately disappointed that we lost that campaign. But I’m a democrat, a believer in democracy. We voted to leave, and I think the right thing now is to try and become, you know, not just neighbors, partners, and friends of the EU, but the best friends, the best neighbors, the best partners. And I think we can make that work” Story by @ChaplainChloe: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Exclusive with @Jess_Shankleman @ChaplainChloe Cabinet ministers are lobbying Andy Burnham and Miatta Fahnbulleh to approve drilling at the Rosebank oil field and privately believe the decision is heading in their favour A majority of the cabinet supports the project, as do some senior advisers to Burnham in Downing Street, according to two officials The government stresses no decision has been taken and that ultimate responsibility lies with Fahnbulleh, who has previously indicated her opposition The decision has been expected by the end of the year but it is unlikely to come in the next few weeks, a person familiar with the matter said Proponents within government argue that Rosebank can be approved without breaching UK emissions targets and that not doing so would mean a fiscal cost because the Treasury has accounted for future tax revenues on the basis that it would be approved Scottish Labour leader Michael Marra has urged Fahnbulleh to sign off on Rosebank, and it is also supported by the major Unite and GMB trade unions, although 10 other unions have opposed the project A government official said approving both Jackdaw and Rosebank while banning new North Sea exploration in line with Labour’s manifesto commitments would be a balanced energy policy that manages the transition to net zero responsibly and not ideologically However, some Labour MPs said their environmental objections to the Jackdaw approval were more muted than they could have been only because Fahnbulleh heavily hinted a different approach would be taken to Rosebank The lack of expectation management could result in more backlash from within the party if Rosebank is approved, they warned bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

MORE: The Bank of England warns inflation is on track to hit almost 5% next year It makes clear there will be more interest rate rises unless the Iran war ends Lays bare the damage the war is doing to Andy Burnham’s promise to be the cost-of-living government

Bloomberg.com paywall-free today for all your news and analysis. Top story: Democrats Sweep to Control of Congress in Rebuke to Trump

NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read Andy Burnham had his bounce. Now things get bumpy. — Britons gave the new PM the benefit of the doubt in his first three months, but the next six weeks will test whether he can keep that momentum going. John Healey’s budget had a rough landing, putting the government under pressure to restore a positive narrative during a frenetic period until the end of the year. — The political risks come thick and fast before Christmas: Iran. Ukraine. Migration policy. Welfare reform. The EU summit. Rosebank. The 10-year plan, which is now the defining moment for this government. — It helps explain why Healey’s modest budget was so loudly criticised by businesses, economists and Labour campaign groups. Ministers and advisers are similarly underwhelmed. A minister says they’re bewildered by the decision to have such a small budget after Burnham set expectations high by promising radical change. An adviser says they’re angry Labour went through the pain of removing Keir Starmer to end up with that. — Others in government defend Healey. One aide insists it was a pro-growth, pro-business budget that took a responsible approach to managing the economy. Another argues it’s preferable to have him as chancellor presiding over a budget that was welcomed by markets, rather than a more left-wing alternative who would take risks with the public finances. A third official says Healey did the best he could within the parameters set by No10, which didn’t want large tax rises or welfare cuts at this budget. — But the confusion on welfare cuts only feeds the accusation that the government is delaying the big decisions. It will come under further scrutiny when the Milburn review is published shortly. Then there’s Shabana Mahmood’s immigration rules changes, expected imminently, on which the cabinet is split. Ministers are also divided on the Rosebank decision being made by year-end, with Healey suggesting he’s in favour but Miatta Fahnbulleh opposed. — On each policy Burnham has to balance higher public spending and the cost-of-living against the demands of left-wing cabinet members and MPs not to penalise welfare recipients and migrants or breach net zero commitments. The danger, one MP says, is no one is left happy by the compromises that emerge and it puts a pin in the balloon of Burnham’s premiership. — No policy is more contentious than Burnham’s desire to explore rejoining the EU, which is causing serious consternation in cabinet. Several senior cabinet ministers are opposed to reopening debates on Brexit and free movement, fearing Kemi Badenoch will take advantage. Healey suggested this week he couldn’t see the UK rejoining in his lifetime and Jonathan Reynolds warned businesses don’t want “uncertainty.” Mahmood has not hid her opposition in the recent past. — The hope among Labour MPs is Burnham is reserving the real ambition for his 10-year plan in December, but they are privately doubtful about how far the project has actually progressed and how impactful it will really be. No10 insists the speech will still happen before the end of the year despite suggestions that it could slip into 2027, not least because they’re still in the process of hiring several policy unit roles for people likely to play a key part in developing and delivering the strategy. — But MPs who are hoping for definitive answers from Burnham may be disappointed by suggestions the speech will be the start of a “national policy conversation.” A Downing Street official says it’s not the case that the publication of the plan will be the finished product, and that instead it’ll set up an overall direction which will mark the beginning of the process, rather than the detailed policy work. — The danger is another underwhelming set-piece moment sees Burnham lose his early shine. With top team @ChaplainChloe @LucyGJWhite @Joe_Mayes: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

***BLOOMBERG BUDGET ANALYSIS*** John Healey’s modest budget achieved his main aim of avoiding an adverse market reaction. But the cost-of-living support is small and will be swallowed up by coming rises to bills. It is a long way off Andy Burnham’s pledge to rip up 40 years of neoliberalism and transform the economy. And it could be out-of-date within days if Trump escalates against Iran and causes another energy price shock. The question is: does this budget really meet voters’ expectations of the change Burnham is promising and mean Labour’s popularity continues to improve? Or will it mark a turning point as Healey struggles to live up to the PM’s rhetoric within the constraints of the manifesto, global headwinds and fiscal reality? The IFS characterises the budget as “lots of fiddling, short-term things.” The Resolution Foundation says Healey has “spread the jam thin.” Kemi Badenoch asks: “Is that it?” Will this narrative take hold, or will Britons continue to be won over by the force of Burnham’s personality? It also seems fair to ask what happened to his big ambitious ideas? There was not much on “public control” and nationalisation today. The council house building programme isn’t so revolutionary. There were no major reforms to council tax, capital gains tax, stamp duty, a land value tax, cutting the personal tax threshold, as he’s previously floated. Healey’s commitment to spend 3% of GDP on defence by 2030 won immediate praise from Zelenskyy and NATO. But deferring the decision on how to fund it means the next year will be very tough for the government. The spending review and next budget look painful, with big welfare cuts and tax rises likely needed. The immediate fear in cabinet is Trump and Iran. UK officials believe it is likely the US military campaign is going to resume shortly. Resolution suggests that if there is serious escalation there it would wipe out Healey’s £15 billion headroom: “He doesn’t have enough to survive one bad roll of the dice.” It leaves Burnham’s fate in the hands of Trump. That gives a whole new meaning to his strategy of “hope.” With @PhilAldrick: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

BREAKING: John Healey says the UK will spend 3% of GDP on defence by 2030. Bloomberg reported on Saturday that defence officials wanted him to make that commitment at the budget: