Father, law professor, former FEC Commissioner, Chairman Institute for Free Speech @InstFreeSpeech, lover of liberty & dogs, looking for evidence, #freespeech,
Ohio, USA
Joined September 2009
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You are at the playground with your young child or grandchild. To your surprise, you recognize across the way a famous billionaire supervising his or her own child. Is it morally acceptable to point at the other child and say to your child: "Go take some of his toys. He's got a lot more than he needs."?
Do you favor a "wealth tax?"
It's time to get Big Politics out of your money! End Wickard!
On this day 84 years ago, the Supreme Court said Congress could regulate the wheat one man grew for himself bc if enough farmers did the same, they wouldn’t buy enough wheat. And thus the Commerce Clause was blown open. #JusticeForRoscoe (outside Filburn’s farmhouse)
I've seen a lot of pros and amateurs trying to assess the THE cause for last week's results. There was no one cause. All these things were inter-related. I was going to write a long post on it, but @JohnPuri2026 saves me the work:
"[W]hy Republicans were obliterated: It was the tariffs and the Iran war. It was the open disregard for the cost of living, plus the contempt for law and basic decency. It was immigration enforcement that was thuggish and theatrical by design, which drove Hispanics away from the GOP in droves. It was tax cuts that were hardly promoted, paired with Medicaid cuts and expiring health-care subsidies that were. It was a Congress led by Republicans who stalwartly refused to do their job, to investigate any abuse, to impose any check. It was the elevation of candidates whom every rational person knew should be nowhere near the U.S. capital. It was chaos and incompetence throughout.
"In short, it was Donald Trump’s second presidency."
This type of post is starting to gain traction on conservative social media circles. “From where,” they ask, “did the Democrats get an additional 1.8 million votes?”
In fact, the point is not “fascinating” and there is no mystery. The U.S. citizen voting age population increased from 241 million to 250 million between 2022 and 2026.
Case solved. Let’s try to win back voters with better governance and better candidates rather than go off on baseless conspiracy theories.
This is a fascinating point.
If this was a “blue wave” election, then that generally means that tons of Republicans flipped their votes.
Not “stayed home.” Literally, flipped votes.
Because the data show that Republicans showed up at the same level as previous election cycles. You know, when they won.
It looks like Democrats were able to conjure up about 1.7 million more voters than the 2022 election. About 1.4 million from the 2018 election.
If you are thinking, “wait, wasn’t Trump president in 2018?” then congrats. You are starting to hone in on why this turnout makes no sense.
Because California transplants don’t account for it. There are only about 700,00 net Californian migrants, max.
H1Bs and permanent residents are not allowed to vote. Illegal aliens don’t legally vote, although people *could* vote for them thanks to our dirty voter rolls.
So, where did all these Democrats come from?
Let's touch on the given reasons why. The Iran War? Okay, where were all the anti-war protests in the streets?
The left was burning Teslas over modest DOGE cuts, for chrissakes.
Expensive gas? You mean, the same prices we saw at the end of Biden. Did these Dems flip for Trump over that in 2024?
Maybe to some degree, Latinos did. But not anywhere close to these margins.
ICE deportations? Those border counties that are being cited as the major surge in Latino voters for the Democrats went about +14 Trump in 2024.
That would be the presidential election when Trump said mass deportations were on the table.
But we aren’t as concerned about the 'why' as we are about the math.
Because there is reported to be about 2.9 million new voter registrations between 2022-2024. Texas doesn't demand proof of citizenship for these TPS registrations, but they are ultimately supposed to be checked against SAVE databases for non-citizen flags.
After all is said and done, however, there were a net 950,000 new voter registrations in Texas.
So, the Democrats would have to get all of this mathematically and then almost double.
Why would there be a "blue wave" mainly over the Iran War when there were few anti-war protests?
Why would Trump win in 2024 while promising mass deportations and all of a sudden modest ICE enforcement is causing a shift of 40-50 points for Latino voters?
Why would polls have a bias for Dem respondents that showed close races, but then this turned out to be a blue wipeout with GOP turnout about the same as past years when their candidates won?
These questions may have good explanations. As for me, I've got nothing.
$11.6 billion: Approximate spending on this year’s elections.
$13.5 billion: Approximate spending on this year’s Halloween decorations and candy.
Here’s my appearance with Larry Lessig on “Focus.” There’s a rather lengthy opening bit before Larry and I come on. The host is hardly neutral, but he’s fair in giving me lots of time. Worth a watch if you want to explore think on g on money in politics.
youtu.be/72O5LLKBQks?si=0tTe…
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Thoughts from a friend:
“I’ve been thinking about the ‘74-‘80 period a lot recently. Everything from the Reagan Revolution has now been burned down and we’ll need to start from scratch. But not only do we not have a Reagan, but we don’t have a Buckley, a Mese, a Fuelner, a Bork, a Baker... The last time things have been this broken was probably the wreckage after Hoover.”
The Institute for Free Speech @InstFreeSpeech is proud to represent the @MackinacCenter in this suit.
The Mackinac Center for Public Policy filed a lawsuit Nov. 3 against Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Attorney General Dana Nessel after Michiganders approved Proposal 2 by a vote of 81.2% to 18.8%. Prop 2, the research and educational institute said, curbs free speech and is thus unconstitutional.
Hey, that's me! See you in Philly!
Tomorrow at @TheFIREorg's Soapbox conference, @InstFreeSpeech Chairman @CommishSmith takes up the timely question of money and political speech in a panel featuring Harvard’s Larry Lessig, moderated by @SCOTUSblog's Sarah Isgur (@whignewtons). Details:
soapbox.fire.org/soapbox/110…
Brad Smith retweeted
NEW: Via @USATODAY / @brieannafrank, great coverage of the new @InstFreeSpeech lawsuit on behalf of the @MackinacCenter. This lawsuit aims to protect core First Amendment speech and associational rights in Michigan. Read the full article here - usatoday.com/story/news/poli…
The institute for Free Soeech @InstFreeSpeech is proud to be representing the @MackinacCenter in this effort. The nation’s #1 state think tank represented by the nation’s #1 free political speech litigators
BREAKING NEWS: Free speech shouldn’t be criminal. The Mackinac Center is challenging Proposal 2 in federal court. Learn more: mackinac.org/pressroom/2026/…
This is something I've been saying for years. An excellent column by Barton Swaim.
Early voting and mail-in voting have destroyed the important ritual and symbolic elements of Election Day.
Another win for myopic utilitarianism, a loss for civic culture.
wsj.com/opinion/free-express…
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Republicans lose 20+ house seats; lose Maine, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina senate seats and two of South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, and Alaska, for 53 Democrat seats (Rs also lose Michigan). Lose governorship in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and one of Vermont or Georgia. Lose 400-600 state legislative seats around the country, and control of 11 or more state legislative chambers.
Brad Smith retweeted
🚨NEW LAWSUIT: Michigan’s just-passed Proposal 2 threatens nonprofits with donor disclosure, committee registration, and criminal penalties just for mentioning elected officials. Now the @MackinacCenter, represented by @instfreespeech, is fighting back:
ifs.org/news/mackinac-center…
Brad Smith retweeted
"People rarely change policy alone. They band together." Read the new opinion piece from IFS Dir. of External Relations Tiffany Donnelly on the troubling, nationwide efforts to silence group political speech, via @RCPolitics: realclearpolitics.com/articl…
