Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) header
Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) profile picture

NY Times Bestselling Author, over 1 million copies sold, now published in 12 languages globally. Long-time @CNBC Contributor, founder of the @BearTrapsReport

New York, NY
Joined March 2009
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Got Hard Assets? It's Happening - Financial Repression Breaking - LONG-TERM US YIELDS DROP ON TREASURY PLANS TO BOOST BUYBACKS - Bloomberg
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The Buy high - SELL low crowd...
MARKET MOVERS 🔴 DOWNGRADES $NVDA: Downgraded to Market Perform by Bernstein SocGen Group; PT cut to $200 from $400 $NVDA: Downgraded to Perform by Oppenheimer; PT withdrawn $NVDA: Downgraded to Market Perform by William Blair $NVDA: Downgraded to In Line by Evercore ISI; PT lowered to $186 📉 PRICE TARGET CUT $NVDA: PT cut to $205 from $315 by Stifel $NVDA: PT cut to $225 from $285 by Citi $NVDA: PT cut to $230 from $330 by RBC Capital $NVDA: PT cut to $280 from $350 by BofA Securities $NVDA: PT cut to $225 from $300 by Yorkville Ives 🔵 RATING REITERATIONS $NVDA: Outperform reiterated by Mizuho; PT $250 $NVDA: Buy reiterated by UBS; PT $300 $NVDA: Strong Buy reiterated by Raymond James; PT $515 $NVDA: Overweight reiterated by Piper Sandler; PT $300
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$1T counterparty risk, ya think???
USTR Greer on NVIDIA: It's a structurally important company.
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Apple - is the beloved "AI safe haven" at 11x sales. *From 2009-2019, $AAPL traded at 2x to 5x sales; Buffett just dumped 773 million shares of the iPhone maker. **Nvidia 33% off sale - Apple at an all-time high. Has never happened; top 2 stocks in the S&P 500.
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Rotation: $1T wiped from NVDA since Oct. 29. Anthropic’s $1.4T IPO lands the same week. Rubio warned Trump about Huang’s MSS-linked affair back in spring — briefed him on AF1 in May. Ignored for months. Now it’s front page. How Convenient.
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Corp Gov Alert - Sounds like the Lehman Brothers board: Dina Merrill, former Hollywood actress, 82 years young in 2008. *Central Bank of Nvidia - This board is overseeing nearly $1T of the most complex financial derivatives, leveraged equity, and debt commitments on Earth.
With backgrounds ranging from running Taco Bell’s international operations to academic research involving jellyfish, the Nvidia board are deliberating whether to retain the only person ever to have run Nvidia or fire an executive who has commanded widespread respect and overseen a more than 700,000% surge in the company’s share price. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Sell side “analysts” - buy at the highs near 30x sales, price target $400,” sell at the lows near 12x sales, “price target $200.”
“We’ve had enough.” Nvidia gets its second downgrade of the day, this time from Bernstein, as the crisis surrounding CEO Jensen Huang deepens. Analyst Stacy Rasgon (@Srasgon / @BernsteinRasgon) warns the full extent of the scandal may not yet be known, slashing his price target in half from $400 to $200. Shares were down 8% after hours.
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Passive Investing is Broken Top 2 Stocks S&P 500 composition: 2026: 15.3%* 2016: 5.2%** *Nvidia + Apple **Apple + Microsoft
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Hubris + Testosterone =
Here’s @CGasparino on the “reckless” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s alleged spy affair: “he's going to resign.”
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The Fed just paused rate hikes while expanding its balance sheet, with core PCE (inflation) yoy running at 3.1% vs. 1.5% in 2019. It has been above the central bank's beloved (sarcasm) 2% target since March 2021; facts are facts. *Bloomberg terminal data.
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As $1.4T leaves Nvidia $NVDA — it’s being shoehorned into Apple $AAPL at an 11x sales valuation- lunacy on roids.
Is the S&P 500 broken? Larry McDonald warns that extreme market concentration in top tech stocks is dangerous. It is time to rethink your exposure. Reach out to info@thebeartrapsreport.com to connect. #SP500 #Investing #AI #StockMarket
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Nvidia $NVDA, a $5T company, is down -31% in 19 trading days, that's a crash, think 1987.
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Regime Change CPI Inflation YoY in Q4 2026: 3.7% 2025: 2.7% 2024: 2.6%
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In 45 Days, we have a 50% off sale. Anything to get it out the door... *ANTHROPIC TARGETS ABOUT $1 TRILLION MARKET VALUE IN NASDAQ IPO
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One Promise - If a youngster reads these two back-to-back, it's worth 4 years at Harvard Business School. Holiday Gift Ideas - on Amazon #20 in Financial Services Industry #13 in Money & Monetary Policy *Now over 1M copies sold, published in 12 languages.
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$CENX up 9% today - hard assets, AI infrastructure. Special thanks 🙏 to @BeckyQuick and @andrewrsorkin
"There's so many great values that are going to benefit from AI," says Larry McDonald of @BearTrapsReport on investing in oil, gas & aluminum assets. cnb.cx/4AkcMxO
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Spot on @RickRieder - yet again.
BlackRock's Rick Rieder’s real rates pitch: “The clouds are a bit thicker about forward growth. I think we are seeing an epic rebalance taking place."
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Steve is one of the greats, a must follow.
Everything said about AI today was said about the internet, and it all came true. The first wave of internet companies still mostly failed. Google came later. Watch the full video to learn more. Link in bio.
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Dry Powder -- Now $377B...
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NOT a vote of confidence here -- "Berkshire purchased $2.3 billion in equities in Q3 and sold $2.8 billion." Via @DrDavidKass
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HIGH impact -- Where is the trade? Special thanks to Gary and his team for having us on the show this week- a must-follow @GaryBohm5
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