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48 College Basketball games today π
2 worth an extra look:
1) Norfolk St vs Old Dominion
> ODU hit 17/31 threes against Bucknell, tied a school record and still only scored 82.. their other D1 game was a 61β49 win over Western Michigan, so I'm not suddenly buying this as some explosive offense. Norfolk's pace looks a little misleading too because I think William & Mary dragged them into that game, rather than Norfolk actually wanting to play that fast. Against ODU I expect both teams to be much more comfortable slowing it down, and our projection has it at 134.8, roughly ODU 70β65. The frustrating part is the market has already taken most of the good number away, so 136 only leaves us 1.2 points of room. I added some there for synergy and vibes with live podcast and having skin in the game, but that's the bottom of what I'd play and I'd keep the size down as I got in mostly in the 140 range. Like the under, don't like chasing it, but given market conviction it's likely still good and worth a yap on the daily thread
βΆοΈ UNDER 136.5
2) Cal Poly vs Grand Canyon
> Our projection is roughly GCU 102β83, so needing 182 here doesn't feel nearly as ridiculous as the total looks. Cal Poly is No. 1 in KenPom tempo and GCU is No. 25, which is why I can see this getting into the 80-possession range without either team having to play differently than it wants to. Cal Poly fired 37 threes and scored 84 at Arizona; they're going to keep giving themselves chances even if they're down 20. The growing concern in big spreads is GCU deciding it's done scoring once the game is in hand, but they put up 30 in the final 10 minutes of the Texas Southern opener to finish with 103, then scored 99 against Bethune. That's what I want to see when betting a number this high. Cal Poly made 16 of those threes at Arizona, so I'm not treating 84 as an automatic floor, but our 185.1 still gives us 3.6 points at this price. Typically a bit too small for a click, but I set the floor in a matchup like this much higher than normal & if shots are falling or whistles are.. whistlin.. this could cruise over the big number
βΆοΈ OVER 181.5
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Week 11 College Football Picks!
Record: 15-9 βοΈ
@CorbieBO joins to break down a LOADED slate, but first, updated power rankings!
Ending with three BEST BETS
56 College Basketball games today π
4 worth an extra look:
1) Eastern Kentucky vs Georgia Tech
I'm circling Georgia Tech as an over team for a little while. Scott Cross is fine beating the hell out of somebody and this group just shot 47 free throws against Georgia Southern. EKU wants to run but doesn't have the same talent, forcing a lot of fouls trying to keep up. The other piece I like is Victor Valdes. He followed Cross from Troy, where he was a huge part of that offense, and he's played nine and seven minutes in the first two games. That's a good player coming off the bench with minutes to earn and a bucket getter coming in that Cross likes, wouldn't be shocked to see schemes still trying to put up ptrs late. Need EKU to contribute (this is definitely Georgia Tech doing most of the work), but I'm expecting a full 40 minutes and plenty of points with the clock stopped.
βΆοΈ OVER 164.5 (current 165.5)
2) Illinois vs Texas Tech
I like the shots this game should produce. Illinois has the best offense in the country in my opinion, but I'm not expecting them to look as unstoppable against Texas Tech as they did against FDU and Penn. What I do expect is a lot of threes and attempts at the rim. Last year's meeting got to 158 with the teams shooting a combined 13/44 from three. Illinois alone put up 51 threes against FDU this year & I trust Tech's shooters more than their start suggests, especially at home. If they're going to keep up, that's how they do it. The short Illinois spread caught my eye too, but I'm buying the shooting matchup here. Plenty can go wrong betting a total this high; but the upside gives me enough to bet the over.
βΆοΈ OVER 167
3) Duke vs Michigan State
I took this at 149.5 because I don't think Duke's offensive pieces fit together as cleanly as the talent or recent result would suggest. Cayden Boozer and Dame Sarr looking efficient against Army and Coastal Carolina doesn't answer what happens when those easy looks disappear. On the other end, Duke can switch so much that I'm not convinced Michigan State has enough scoring around Jeremy Fears. I made this 144. Still lean under, but the number had already dropped four points by the show and I'm not running to chase it. Also look at last season where this was a 66-60 Duke win in December, less time to get familiar and make those first month adjustments for teams with alot of new faces.
Lean UNDER 148
4) Florida State vs Florida
I think Florida State can make this a lot more uncomfortable than people expect. Florida usually has a massive advantage inside, but Ponder gives FSU somebody who can actually make Chinyelu work and draw fouls himself. Then you add a big, annoying press in a hostile road environment, early in the season when there isn't much film on this group. I'm not sold on Florida handling all of that cleanly. Miami shot 4/17 from three, missed nine free throws and still finished within 10 of Florida. FSU has a path to competing physically without needing some ridiculous shooting night. The question is whether they can turn that pressure into mistakes without giving Florida easy baskets once it breaks the press. This was a 2 pt game in UF last year, this years FSU team is much stronger and should be ready for war
LEAN Florida St +9, ML
Projections via @GetBettorOdds
Corbie retweeted
Top 25 CFB Projections | Week 11 π
Whoβs on upset watch this weekend?
Early clicks on BAMA -18, SMU OVER
Projections via @GetBettorOdds
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Top 25 CFB Projections | Week 11 π
Whoβs on upset watch this weekend?
Early clicks on BAMA -18, SMU OVER
Projections via @GetBettorOdds
Holloway was caught w/ 2.1lbs of weed
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Suspension
> 3 exhibition games
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Just be better at sports π¨
34 College Basketball games today π
2 worth an extra look:
π) ππππ¨π§ πππ₯π₯ π―π¬ ππ‘ππ«π₯π¨πππ πππππ πππ.π
I'm selling Charlotte's offense here. They scored 77 against Georgia State, but 31 came in the final 10 minutes. I'm not letting that finish erase how they looked for the first 30. The bigger issue for me is Wes Miller against slow, grind it out defenses. He had more talent at Cincinnati and still scored 60 and 54 in the two West Virginia games last year, both totaled near 126, pretty much where I believe this should be. I don't see Charlotte having better answers when a defense keeps its big near the rim and makes them create in the half court. Especially if Chaze Harris can't go after his back tightened up last game (pregame, played 4 min). I thought Seton Hall's new ball handlers would let them play faster this year, but I watched the LIU game and came away really low on that offense too. Decent talent on paper, not much being done with it. I made this 126 & in a neutral w/ a game on the floor prior, I'll buy some under
Current: 130.5
π) πππ π―π¬ π
π₯π¨π«π’ππ π&π πππππ πππ.π
I'm probably being too hard on my Blazers, but I'm not laying 18.5 with this offense. Salim London getting 30+ minutes still doesn't give me much confidence in the offensive end of the floor. Florida A&M might be an all-time bad team. They scored 44 in an exhibition loss to NAIA Warner, then lost at home to Division II Fort Valley State by five. I want to keep finding ways to fade them, but I don't trust UAB enough to make the spread my bet here. The under lets me bet against Florida A&M's offense without needing the Blazers to perform incredibly well. We are starting to see the no bigs rotation, which should mean tempo and could be the worry if the Blazers put up 90+, but from what I've seen I'll buy into the fact they aren't built like that.
Current: 154.5
Both discussed on our Daily CBB show (11am CT). Sharing those line + current (if still playable) all szn
Projections via @GetBettorOdds
Corbie retweeted
34 College Basketball games today π
2 worth an extra look:
π) ππππ¨π§ πππ₯π₯ π―π¬ ππ‘ππ«π₯π¨πππ πππππ πππ.π
I'm selling Charlotte's offense here. They scored 77 against Georgia State, but 31 came in the final 10 minutes. I'm not letting that finish erase how they looked for the first 30. The bigger issue for me is Wes Miller against slow, grind it out defenses. He had more talent at Cincinnati and still scored 60 and 54 in the two West Virginia games last year, both totaled near 126, pretty much where I believe this should be. I don't see Charlotte having better answers when a defense keeps its big near the rim and makes them create in the half court. Especially if Chaze Harris can't go after his back tightened up last game (pregame, played 4 min). I thought Seton Hall's new ball handlers would let them play faster this year, but I watched the LIU game and came away really low on that offense too. Decent talent on paper, not much being done with it. I made this 126 & in a neutral w/ a game on the floor prior, I'll buy some under
Current: 130.5
π) πππ π―π¬ π
π₯π¨π«π’ππ π&π πππππ πππ.π
I'm probably being too hard on my Blazers, but I'm not laying 18.5 with this offense. Salim London getting 30+ minutes still doesn't give me much confidence in the offensive end of the floor. Florida A&M might be an all-time bad team. They scored 44 in an exhibition loss to NAIA Warner, then lost at home to Division II Fort Valley State by five. I want to keep finding ways to fade them, but I don't trust UAB enough to make the spread my bet here. The under lets me bet against Florida A&M's offense without needing the Blazers to perform incredibly well. We are starting to see the no bigs rotation, which should mean tempo and could be the worry if the Blazers put up 90+, but from what I've seen I'll buy into the fact they aren't built like that.
Current: 154.5
Both discussed on our Daily CBB show (11am CT). Sharing those line + current (if still playable) all szn
Projections via @GetBettorOdds
Corbie retweeted
3 CFB early Clicks | Week 11 π
> Backing the Tide
> A low major shootout
> & a team who just ran for... 16 yards
Lets have some fun @YahooSports
sports.yahoo.com/college-fooβ¦
3 CFB early Clicks | Week 11 π
> Backing the Tide
> A low major shootout
> & a team who just ran for... 16 yards
Lets have some fun @YahooSports
sports.yahoo.com/college-fooβ¦