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RV의멱함수라고 생각한다.
This is the most rigorous Bitcoin paper
I've read. I've been studying —
and testing — it for 20 days.
scientificbitcoininstitute.o…
Dr. Santostasi and Dr. Perrenod gave us the ruler —
and the imagination to see the oscillator.
Together: the most falsifiable framework
in crypto economics.
The Power Law isn't just a model —
it's the most precise ruler we have
for measuring where Bitcoin stands.
Most models describe the past.
The Power Law keeps passing tests
it was never designed for.
"Isn't β=5.69 just curve-fitting?"
Fair question.
So I ran a test the paper didn't.
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Materials & Methods
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Data: Daily closing price and non-zero balance
address count (BitcoinMagazinePro,
2010-08-17 to 2026-06-04, n=5,771).
Model: log₁₀P(t) = log₁₀A + β·log₁₀(t)
where t = days since Genesis Block (2009-01-03).
Out-of-sample design:
The power law was fitted exclusively on data
up to the freeze date, with zero observations
from the test period used in estimation.
Two freeze points were tested:
① Freeze at 2016-07-08 (2nd halving)
Training: n=2,153 | Test: n=3,617 (10 years)
② Freeze at 2020-05-10 (3rd halving)
Training: n=3,555 | Test: n=2,215 (6 years)
Residuals computed as:
ε = log₁₀(P_observed / P_predicted)
normalized by in-sample σ.
Mean residual and area integrals
(trapezoidal rule) applied to test period only.
The out-of-sample test was my idea.
Computation and analysis executed with
Claude Opus 4.8 (Anthropic).
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Froze the power law using data up to 2016 only (β=5.717).
Then measured the following 10 years it had never seen.
Result: mean residual −0.05σ. Effectively zero.
Frozen at 2020 instead → next 6 years, −0.13σ.
Same story.
The line drawn in 2016 ran straight through the next decade.
That's not fitting. That's forecasting.
The Power Law: powerful because it can be broken —
and hasn't been.
Knowing where we are won't tell us when things will happen — but it tells us exactly what to do now.
Buy Bitcoin Now.
@Giovann35084111 @moneyordebt @ScientificBTC
@saylor @natbrunell
#Bitcoin #PowerLaw
DC BitMax retweeted
JUST IN: Binance says it has now covered 100% of losses from the $6.3 billion crypto hack by North Korea.
DC BitMax retweeted
2017년 인천 초등생 손가락 훼손 살인사건
공범 중 한명 곧 출소 ㄷㄷ📌
- 범인: 당시 17세 김양 (공범 18세 박양)
- 내용: 8살 여아 유인 살해 후 시신 훼손, 손가락 등 일부를 공범에게 선물로 전달
- 전말: 트위터 살인 역할극 커뮤니티에서 만나 실제 엽기 범행 모의
- 결말: 주범 징역 20년, 공범 징역 13년 확정
✔️정확한 만기 출소 예정일
- 공범 박양: 2030년 4월 12일 출소 예정 (징역 13년, 출소 시 만 32세)
1심에서 무기징역 →2심에서 살인방조로 감형
2017년부터 복역해 형기를 이미 상당 부분 채우
만기인 2030년까지도 얼마 남지 않은 데다
가석방 심사 대상에 들어갈 수 있음
- 주범 김양: 2037년 3월 30일 출소 예정 (징역 20년, 출소 시 만 37세)
범행 당시 미성년자(만 17세)여서 소년법상 법정 최고형인 20년형 받아, 만기 출소해도 고작 37세에 불과함
DC BitMax retweeted
Trezor finds drainers on three Safe 5s sold via CryptoBilis
• Zero reports of user funds lost
• Firmware 2.13.1 blocks implant batch
• Reseller network cut by 80%
