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A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether the worst of the selloff is over, how the Anthropic IPO could trade, why stocks onchain have stalled and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:45 Is the Worst Behind Us?
07:48 Why the Macro Models Are Cautious
10:25 The Nvidia Wild Card
16:11 Never Sell the Singularity
19:23 AI Stocks at COVID-Low Valuations
24:33 Meta's AI Bet Is Priced at Zero
28:01 How the Anthropic IPO Could Trade
34:00 Will Anthropic Wipe Out SPV Buyers?
38:04 The Mystery Morning Seller
39:42 ZEC in the Wall Street Journal
41:14 Why Stocks OnChain Stalled
44:28 Can Elysium Skip the Launchpad Trap?
50:48 Is ETH's Store of Value a Hail Mary?
56:14 MegaETH Pivots to AI Inference
How will the Anthropic IPO affect the broader market?
âThere is a potential that 2027 isnât as favorable of a market for credit as it has been in the last six months...
I think Anthropicâs reaction in the first couple of weeks is going to be pretty telling for whether or not we get another dip in the broader market in my view.â
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether the worst of the selloff is over, how the Anthropic IPO could trade, why stocks onchain have stalled and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:45 Is the Worst Behind Us?
07:48 Why the Macro Models Are Cautious
10:25 The Nvidia Wild Card
16:11 Never Sell the Singularity
19:23 AI Stocks at COVID-Low Valuations
24:33 Meta's AI Bet Is Priced at Zero
28:01 How the Anthropic IPO Could Trade
34:00 Will Anthropic Wipe Out SPV Buyers?
38:04 The Mystery Morning Seller
39:42 ZEC in the Wall Street Journal
41:14 Why Stocks OnChain Stalled
44:28 Can Elysium Skip the Launchpad Trap?
50:48 Is ETH's Store of Value a Hail Mary?
56:14 MegaETH Pivots to AI Inference
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José says AI progress is accelerating faster than markets are pricing in.
âAnthropic ARR is still up 10% month on month in October... Nvidia, Google, Broadcom, Oracle are all down versus a year ago, before Claude Opus 4.5 came out which really kicked all of this off. To me thatâs just insane.â
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether the worst of the selloff is over, how the Anthropic IPO could trade, why stocks onchain have stalled and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:45 Is the Worst Behind Us?
07:48 Why the Macro Models Are Cautious
10:25 The Nvidia Wild Card
16:11 Never Sell the Singularity
19:23 AI Stocks at COVID-Low Valuations
24:33 Meta's AI Bet Is Priced at Zero
28:01 How the Anthropic IPO Could Trade
34:00 Will Anthropic Wipe Out SPV Buyers?
38:04 The Mystery Morning Seller
39:42 ZEC in the Wall Street Journal
41:14 Why Stocks OnChain Stalled
44:28 Can Elysium Skip the Launchpad Trap?
50:48 Is ETH's Store of Value a Hail Mary?
56:14 MegaETH Pivots to AI Inference
Kinetiq is giving apps a fast lane to Hyperliquid's orderbook.
Apps on HyperEVM can already trade on Hyperliquid's exchange. Each order waits a few seconds before it reaches the book, and prices can move in that time.
That makes it hard to build products that need to keep pace with the market.
Elysium plans to cut that wait to a fraction of a second. Apps there will also get a fuller view of the book, so they can size each trade to the liquidity on offer.
Using the fast lane means trusting Elysiumâs infrastructure to relay market data and orders correctly.
Builders who are comfortable with that get a much faster way into Hyperliquidâs markets.
Wall Street wants in on Hyperliquid. So why isnât its broader onchain ecosystem thriving?
Our Kinetiq report anchors around that question.
Hyperliquid made $818M in revenue in 2025. It has built an exchange people clearly want to use.
The institutional appetite for its infrastructure looks unprecedented for an onchain exchange.
ICE partnered with TradeXYZ for proposed US markets. Payward will deploy HIP-3* markets. Druckenmiller invested in TradeXYZ.
Yet HyperEVM, where developers can build apps around the exchange, seems underdeveloped.
Thatâs striking because HyperCore gives those builders something valuable: established markets whose prices, liquidity, and trading functionality can become part of other financial products.
That composability opens possibilities well beyond what users can do through the exchange alone.
So is the demand simply missing?
Perhaps.
But limited capacity, fee spikes, and complicated plumbing between apps and HyperCore have made building difficult.
So surely some teams may have built elsewhere or shelved ideas that looked too expensive to operate.
Users cannot discover products that nobody finds worthwhile to build.
So rather than confidently saying thereâs no demand, Iâd prefer to think appetite for what those builders could create around HyperCore remains untested.
Kinetiqâs Elysium aims to give them a more conducive environment to build.
There may also be an audience ready to experiment. HYPE whales might welcome avenues to speculate and more interesting ways to put their capital to work. Their participation could help new apps establish liquidity and, in turn, attract new users.
Of course, neither HYPE wealth nor better infrastructure guarantees sustained demand.
But âusers donât want thisâ and âusers havenât had a compelling version to tryâ lead to very different conclusions.
Hyperliquid has already shown what happens when traders find a product they love. @Enter_Elysium gives builders room to discover what brings the next wave.
Has Hyperliquid had its wealth effect yet?
@0xOmnia: âYou saw this on Ethereum a few years back. You saw this most recently on Solana, and itâs yet to happen on Hyperliquid...
Thereâs 20 to 40 billion dollars of capital that is basically sitting on HyperCore, staked or unstaked, waiting to do something."
A new episode of Hivemind is live!
This week the team is joined by @0xOmnia to discuss whatâs behind the AI selloff, the uncertain future of self custody, why Hyperliquid needs an L2, and more.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 The Midterm Cycle That Always Repeats
03:31 Why Privacy Helps Security
05:44 Does Gridlock Kill the AI Trade?
15:38 The Biggest Hedge Fund Deleveraging in Years
19:12 Is the Selloff Overdone?
22:47 Will Democrats Come for Trumpâs Crypto?
25:39 Prediction Markets Turn on JD Vance
32:17 How Binance Got Hacked
36:08 Is Self Custody Dead?
41:24 Why Hyperliquid Needs an L2
49:57 What Launches on Day One
Will big funds sit out the rest of the year?
âI think a lot of people have no real desire to step in front of this...
If you hit your numbers this year, which a lot of funds probably did given how good most of the year was...
what incentive do you actually have to step back into the market here between now and the end of the year?
Thanksgiving is in a couple weeks, Christmas and the holidays a couple weeks after that.â
Kinetiq is building the app economy around Hyperliquid.
Elysium is Kinetiqâs new network for the apps that run alongside Hyperliquidâs exchange, targeting roughly 100 times the block space they get on HyperEVM today.
Block space has been a key bottleneck on HyperEVM. Market makers pay gas on every quote update, so fee spikes mean fewer updates and wider spreads. Few apps beyond staking and lending have taken off.
More room should let market makers keep prices fresh without fees eating into their margins. A maker selling downside protection through an options app on Elysium could then hedge with perps on Hyperliquid. Each of those trades pays the exchange a fee.
HIP-3 let outside teams launch their own markets on Hyperliquid. Elysium could do the same for apps.
Read the full report here.
delphi.link/Kinetiq
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Our new report âKinetiq: Building the Hyperliquid Economyâ is live!
Trading on Hyperliquid has grown faster than the block space its apps run on. Kinetiq is building Elysium to give those apps 100 times the capacity.
Read the report here.
delphi.link/Kinetiq
Will stocks still rally after the midterms?
Kevin: âNothing goes up and to the right in a straight line.
But from a long term time horizon period, I think markets look a lot better six to 12 months from now than they do today...
If you were optimistic a week ago, I donât think thereâs anything that has changed as fundamentally as the market is screaming right now.â
Crypto continues to have a tough month.
Fewer than 5% of altcoins on our dashboard rose this month. The average token fell 24%.
Weakest sectors
âą AI: -31.2%
âą Modular: -29.1%
âą DePIN: -27.9%
âą Layer 1s: -26.5%
âą ETH DeFi: -23.0%
View the full dashboard here for free.
delphi.link/SectorperformancâŠ
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Could pausing AI trigger a recession?
Kevin: âThe economy very quickly re-rates, more likely than not falls into a recession. Markets obviously hate that. Market sells off.
So if youâre newly elected into this Democratic Congress, youâre obviously thinking about 2028.
The incentive to crush markets, crush the AI trade... itâs a terrible look.â
Why did Kinetiq build on Hyperliquid?
@0xOmnia: âTwo and a half years ago when this was announced this was supposed to be a new paradigm.
You finally end the monopoly or duopoly of centralized exchange wants to extract more money, deploys an L2, print all the sequencer fees, and have fun.
This very specific development about Hyperliquid announcing HyperEVM... was exactly what got us excited about building Kinetiq.â
A new episode of Hivemind is live!
This week the team is joined by @0xOmnia to discuss whatâs behind the AI selloff, the uncertain future of self custody, why Hyperliquid needs an L2, and more.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 The Midterm Cycle That Always Repeats
03:31 Why Privacy Helps Security
05:44 Does Gridlock Kill the AI Trade?
15:38 The Biggest Hedge Fund Deleveraging in Years
19:12 Is the Selloff Overdone?
22:47 Will Democrats Come for Trumpâs Crypto?
25:39 Prediction Markets Turn on JD Vance
32:17 How Binance Got Hacked
36:08 Is Self Custody Dead?
41:24 Why Hyperliquid Needs an L2
49:57 What Launches on Day One
Is DeFi actually safer than exchanges?
Ceteris: âWhen youâre depositing your capital into the DEX... itâs not like youâre purely self custody at that point.
So you have a bunch of money in Hyperliquid and thereâs a bug in Hyperliquid and all the USDC gets drained...
Circle had a number where they would freeze. Apparently, $800 million is above the number.
If it happened to Hyperliquid, hopefully that would be frozen extremely quickly too.â
A new episode of Hivemind is live!
This week the team is joined by @0xOmnia to discuss whatâs behind the AI selloff, the uncertain future of self custody, why Hyperliquid needs an L2, and more.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 The Midterm Cycle That Always Repeats
03:31 Why Privacy Helps Security
05:44 Does Gridlock Kill the AI Trade?
15:38 The Biggest Hedge Fund Deleveraging in Years
19:12 Is the Selloff Overdone?
22:47 Will Democrats Come for Trumpâs Crypto?
25:39 Prediction Markets Turn on JD Vance
32:17 How Binance Got Hacked
36:08 Is Self Custody Dead?
41:24 Why Hyperliquid Needs an L2
49:57 What Launches on Day One
Why does Hyperliquid need an L2?
@0xOmnia: âOne could argue HyperEVM kind of fulfills this need...
But HyperEVM is built to fit within HyperCoreâs block times, so it has this dual block architecture. Itâs like seven TPS...
Imagine people wanting to do anything that you see happening on Solana or Base or Robinhood on HyperEVM. Itâs just not possible.â
A new episode of Hivemind is live!
This week the team is joined by @0xOmnia to discuss whatâs behind the AI selloff, the uncertain future of self custody, why Hyperliquid needs an L2, and more.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 The Midterm Cycle That Always Repeats
03:31 Why Privacy Helps Security
05:44 Does Gridlock Kill the AI Trade?
15:38 The Biggest Hedge Fund Deleveraging in Years
19:12 Is the Selloff Overdone?
22:47 Will Democrats Come for Trumpâs Crypto?
25:39 Prediction Markets Turn on JD Vance
32:17 How Binance Got Hacked
36:08 Is Self Custody Dead?
41:24 Why Hyperliquid Needs an L2
49:57 What Launches on Day One
Who wins as new data centers get harder to build?
"The premium is going to shift towards the hyperscalers and maybe some of the big incumbent neoclouds that have installed compute already. Theyâve not only built the data centers, but theyâve got all the permitting.â
A new episode of Hivemind is live!
This week the team is joined by @0xOmnia to discuss whatâs behind the AI selloff, the uncertain future of self custody, why Hyperliquid needs an L2, and more.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 The Midterm Cycle That Always Repeats
03:31 Why Privacy Helps Security
05:44 Does Gridlock Kill the AI Trade?
15:38 The Biggest Hedge Fund Deleveraging in Years
19:12 Is the Selloff Overdone?
22:47 Will Democrats Come for Trumpâs Crypto?
25:39 Prediction Markets Turn on JD Vance
32:17 How Binance Got Hacked
36:08 Is Self Custody Dead?
41:24 Why Hyperliquid Needs an L2
49:57 What Launches on Day One
Can AI replace good analysts?
âThe idea of a partner who disagrees with me on something and then argues with me about it for a week to get to truth, the AIs are too sycophantic to do that.â
New Emerging Managers episode with Paavan Gami (@hiro_sugimoto_) of Raas Partners is live, our first with a public equities fund manager
Before starting Raas, Paavan spent 5 years at Greenoaks, where he was part of the now legendary Carvana trade (if you read Colossusâ Neil Mehta profile, you know the one). They sold before the crash in â21, bought back in after a 90% drop, then kept buying through another 75% drawdown while LPs told Neil the company was going bankrupt. They ended up owning ~4% of Carvana, a stake worth $1B+ by 2025, and the stock went on to 100x off its 2022 low
His line on how you get comfortable doing that stuck with me: âitâs very hard to run into a burning building if you donât know the structure of that building already.â
Then he left one of the best seats in investing to make a 20-year bet on India. Beyond the macro case everyone knows (1.5B people, half under 30, 6%+ real growth a year for 25 years), his bigger thesis is that stock picking in India has far more alpha than in the US, for structural reasons:
- Private capital is thin, so the best companies go public early. That means you can basically do Series B/C-style growth investing in public markets
- The index is mostly state-owned companies, metals, mining, oil and gas (only 1 internet company in the top 50), so the market still doesnât know how to price tech
- Most consumer categories are still ~90% mom-and-pops, so the leader at 5% share can compound to 30-40%
We get into all of it, plus whether AI breaks the India story (Iâm more worried than he is), the two businesses heâs âmarriedâ (Eternal and Meesho), and how he uses AI agents in his process
(Disclosure: Iâm an LP in Raas Partners)
Is self custody dead?
Ceteris: âThereâs really not a ton of good options. And itâs at the point now where you canât really give anybody custody advice.
Self custody has never really gotten better over 10, 15 years.
I think youâll see more and more money going to exchanges and custodians.
So itâs important that these exchanges and custodians have better security practices.â
A new episode of Hivemind is live!
This week the team is joined by @0xOmnia to discuss whatâs behind the AI selloff, the uncertain future of self custody, why Hyperliquid needs an L2, and more.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 The Midterm Cycle That Always Repeats
03:31 Why Privacy Helps Security
05:44 Does Gridlock Kill the AI Trade?
15:38 The Biggest Hedge Fund Deleveraging in Years
19:12 Is the Selloff Overdone?
22:47 Will Democrats Come for Trumpâs Crypto?
25:39 Prediction Markets Turn on JD Vance
32:17 How Binance Got Hacked
36:08 Is Self Custody Dead?
41:24 Why Hyperliquid Needs an L2
49:57 What Launches on Day One
Power costs have turned the AI build into a political fight.
Data centers used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023 and could need close to 12% by 2030.
Keeping up means new plants and transmission lines that households help pay for through their power bills while the profit stays with the tech companies.
Households have been pushing back for more than a year, starting in 2025 when New Jersey and Virginia elected governors who campaigned on electricity costs.
We flagged this in October as one of the signals to watch for the AI build.
This week the pushback reached the midterms. Voters sided against data centers in nearly every local ballot measure and elected governors who mostly back tighter rules on them.
The Philadelphia chip index fell 12% two days later as markets sold off the biggest construction story theyâve had in decades.
Voters now help decide who pays for AIâs power and how fast the build can move.
Read the full report here.
delphi.link/Housewins
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Is the AI buildout at risk?
âEven in the case that you had a real shortage... I donât think itâs bearish for everyone.
Some of the people who built out a lot of existing capacity do really well.
For Nvidia and TSMC, it only really affects them if we get to the point where thereâs so few data centers being built...
Right now the chips are still a big bottleneck. I donât think it changes that much.â
A new episode of Hivemind is live!
This week the team is joined by @0xOmnia to discuss whatâs behind the AI selloff, the uncertain future of self custody, why Hyperliquid needs an L2, and more.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 The Midterm Cycle That Always Repeats
03:31 Why Privacy Helps Security
05:44 Does Gridlock Kill the AI Trade?
15:38 The Biggest Hedge Fund Deleveraging in Years
19:12 Is the Selloff Overdone?
22:47 Will Democrats Come for Trumpâs Crypto?
25:39 Prediction Markets Turn on JD Vance
32:17 How Binance Got Hacked
36:08 Is Self Custody Dead?
41:24 Why Hyperliquid Needs an L2
49:57 What Launches on Day One