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Devolved Election Projections

@DevolvedVotes

Project your own results of UK elections, including Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd, Northern Irish Assembly, London Assembly and Westminster. 🗳️

devolvedelections.co.uk
Joined May 2025
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Photo by Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)Photo by Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)Photo by Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)Photo by Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)Photo by Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)Photo by Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)Photo by Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)Photo by Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)Photo by Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)Photo by Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)
We've updated our Electoral Reform maps! You can toggle between the list map which includes all seats and the AMS constituency map. All our Electoral Reform maps are made by legoing real constituencies together. devolvedelections.co.uk/elec…
Image from Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)
Image from Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)
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Zoom in on your hometown, or type in your existing constituency name to find where you've ended up. Colours are by largest party, they do not necessarily have a majority.
Image from Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)
Image from Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)
Image from Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes)
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The same maps work for STV, List PR and all our Electoral Reform options. The numbers our from our Nowcast under small list AMS. 🌹 Lab 208 🌳 Con 151 ➡️ Ref 137 🐤 LD 58 🌱 Green 48 🎗️ SNP 23 🌼 PC 12 ☘️ SF 7 🌱 SGP 5 🦁 DUP 3 🔷 UUP 3 ⚪ Other 7
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Our current Westminster Nowcast with all the weekend's polls added: 🌹 Lab — 327 🌳 Con — 141 🔶 LD — 65 🎗️ SNP — 43 ➡️ Ref — 41 🌼 PC — 8 ☘️ SF — 8 🌱 Green — 4 ⚫ Ind — 3 🦁 DUP — 2 🌹 SDLP — 2 🔷 UUP — 2 🤝 APNI — 1 ⬅️ Res — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1 ⚪ Speak — 1
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The Lib Dems are holding on very well, meanwhile Reform have lost quite a lot of ground to the Conservatives in a few weeks. They're now back on the other side of the tipping point which puts them behind the Tories on average. devolvedelections.co.uk/west…
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The SNP and Plaid are doing well, and recent polls in NI have pushed SF safe in all their seats. They're also leaning towards a gain in ELD but that would evaporate if there was a unionist pact. We've tried to factor in Lockhart going DUP>IND in UB, but it's a work in progress
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You can try a similar test for yourself on our site, essentially the same result. FM: Absolutely. But some very marginal seat gains could easily be offset by some moderates being put off by the Single Unionist Party. devolvedelections.co.uk/nort…
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool

Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

devolvedelections.co.uk
Peter Donaghy (@peterdonaghy) profile picturePeter Donaghy@peterdonaghyNov 7
I ran the Assembly Election forecast model with a hypothetical Unionist unity party replacing DUP/UUP/TUV. It would definitely be the largest party, limited impact otherwise. Would flip the Alliance seat in North Antrim; a better chance of a gain in N&A, MU, LV, ELD, S'frd and WT
2027 Assembly Election - hypothetical combined unionist party scenario

ALT 2027 Assembly Election - hypothetical combined unionist party scenario

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A DevolvedElections projection for NI Assembly ‘27: ☘️ SF — 27 🦁 DUP — 13 Ⓣ TUV — 13 🔷 UUP — 13 🌹 SDLP — 12 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ⚫ Ind — 1
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Sorry: This is based on the latest @LucidTalk poll for the @BelTel
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On the Greens: The party got 1.9% last time, their best seats were Belfast South, Belfast East and North Down. They are polling at over double that which puts them in contention for a few seats.
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I am not going to manually change the results of polls. If you wish to see what would happen if the Greens get fewer votes then please do so on our site where you can try out any scenario you can imagine. devolvedelections.co.uk/nort…
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool

Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

devolvedelections.co.uk
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We've updated our NI Monte Carlo sim using current candidate lists from the excellent @NI_Elects. This locks in the number of candidate for parties which have confirmed their intentions. devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-p…
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For constituencies in which parties have not confirmed their plans, we assume 2022 numbers and allow for some addition/subtraction if their vote share changes enough.
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There are pre-Drumcree polls in here, so we expect SF's chances to improve. How unionist preferences have shifted after Drumcree is less clear.
Belfast East APNI DUP GP TUV UUP 30.0% APNI DUP DUP GP UUP 22.9% APNI APNI DUP TUV UUP 19.7% APNI APNI DUP GP UUP 16.7% APNI APNI DUP DUP UUP 9.9% Belfast North APNI DUP SDLP SF SF 26.3% APNI DUP SF SF TUV 19.3% APNI DUP SF SF UUP 16.0% APNI DUP GP SF SF 9.8% APNI DUP SF SF SF 5.3% Belfast South & Mid Down APNI DUP GP SDLP SF 88.7% APNI GP SDLP SF UUP 3.2% APNI DUP GP SF UUP 2.1% APNI DUP GP SDLP UUP 1.7% APNI DUP SDLP SF UUP 1.3% Belfast West DUP PBP SF SF SF 51.0% DUP SF SF SF SF 22.1% PBP SF SF SF SF 15.5% IND PBP SF SF SF 3.6% DUP IND SF SF SF 2.8% East Antrim APNI DUP TUV UUP UUP 89.5% APNI DUP DUP UUP UUP 3.6% APNI DUP DUP TUV UUP 3.1% APNI APNI DUP TUV UUP 1.9% APNI APNI DUP UUP UUP 1.2% East Londonderry DUP IND SDLP SF TUV 51.3% DUP IND SDLP SF UUP 25.0% DUP IND SF SF TUV 4.7% DUP IND SF TUV UUP 4.0% DUP DUP IND SDLP SF 2.9%

ALT Belfast East APNI DUP GP TUV UUP 30.0% APNI DUP DUP GP UUP 22.9% APNI APNI DUP TUV UUP 19.7% APNI APNI DUP GP UUP 16.7% APNI APNI DUP DUP UUP 9.9% Belfast North APNI DUP SDLP SF SF 26.3% APNI DUP SF SF TUV 19.3% APNI DUP SF SF UUP 16.0% APNI DUP GP SF SF 9.8% APNI DUP SF SF SF 5.3% Belfast South & Mid Down APNI DUP GP SDLP SF 88.7% APNI GP SDLP SF UUP 3.2% APNI DUP GP SF UUP 2.1% APNI DUP GP SDLP UUP 1.7% APNI DUP SDLP SF UUP 1.3% Belfast West DUP PBP SF SF SF 51.0% DUP SF SF SF SF 22.1% PBP SF SF SF SF 15.5% IND PBP SF SF SF 3.6% DUP IND SF SF SF 2.8% East Antrim APNI DUP TUV UUP UUP 89.5% APNI DUP DUP UUP UUP 3.6% APNI DUP DUP TUV UUP 3.1% APNI APNI DUP TUV UUP 1.9% APNI APNI DUP UUP UUP 1.2% East Londonderry DUP IND SDLP SF TUV 51.3% DUP IND SDLP SF UUP 25.0% DUP IND SF SF TUV 4.7% DUP IND SF TUV UUP 4.0% DUP DUP IND SDLP SF 2.9%

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SF got over 3 quotas here last time so this makes sense. It would be a big lift but not as big as what's needed in West Tyrone. @LucidTalk's poll is out this weekend, so we might get some idea of why SF are being so ambitious.
Northern Ireland Elects (@NI_Elects) profile pictureNorthern Ireland Elects
@NI_ElectsNov 5
🚨 NEW: Michelle O’Neill, Emma Sheerin, Linda Dillon, and Ian Milne to stand in Mid Ulster for Sinn Féin #AE27
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I they manage it, it would be a straight gain from the SDLP. The other is safe for unionism (most likely the DUP). devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-p… (Our average still has pre-Drumcree polls so SF's chances are probably higher than this)
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Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Ewan Gibbs (@ewangibbs) profile picture
Ewan Gibbs@ewangibbsNov 4
One of those days when we’re reminded loads of British and especially English ‘politicos’ know more about Kansas and Texas than they do about Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.
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