Elon Musk posted about me. I try to ask (mostly) relevant questions. Capital markets, AI, crypto, prediction markets.
Joined January 2014
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like satya nadella i also want to measure everything by if it changed the GDP meaningfully. but my collection agency is asking me to just pay the bills
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"We’re a bunch of portrait painters and the camera just came out. "
Software is dead.
We’re a bunch of portrait painters and the camera just came out.
Sure, there’s some residual value in zombie subscriptions and old people who don’t bother to switch.
Or corporations who pay a fortune for things that should be free and bizarre main frame software that nobody has an incentive to update.
But RIP 98% of the software industry.
Fable 5.2 can built Microsoft Excel in ~50 hours (source: @MatthewBerman ).
At the current rate of improvement:
2027: 7 hours
2028: 57 min
2029: 8 min
2030: 1 min
2031: 8 seconds
ChatGPT just launched generative interfaces for chat results.
Ask a question and it finds the most elegant way to display it (a map, data, etc).
Within 3-5 years it will generate the perfect interface + software for your task in less time that it takes to microwave a burrito.
People always love to answer this with: “There’s still record shops!”
The difference is, the guy who used to own big record store owned a private jet.
Now he drives a beat up Ford Taurus.
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Dr. Doubt, Ph.D. retweeted
In January 2025 Meta decided its servers last 5.5 years, not 4 to 5. Same servers as the day before. That one change added $2.59 billion to its 2025 profit, a dollar a share.
Same month, Amazon looked at some of its own servers and went the other way, 6 years down to 5. That cost them about $1 billion in profit.
They can’t both be right about how long this stuff lasts. Which one is guessing?
Dr. Doubt, Ph.D. retweeted
Tesla made $787 million in profit last quarter. In the same quarter it expensed $1.2 billion of stock compensation, up 76%, mostly because of the CEO pay package from 2025.
So it cost more to pay people in stock than the company earned for the people who own the stock.
If the pay is bigger than the profit, who is working for who?
Dr. Doubt, Ph.D. retweeted
if you are building for humans and not agents you are missing a TAM 100x multiplier rightaway
October 2025, Coinbase's own blog: "Coinbase has no intention of becoming a bank." Last Friday the OCC made it a national trust bank. That took 13 months.
Bitcoin's very first block has a newspaper headline about bank bailouts baked into it. The whole point was not needing one of these.
So did crypto beat the banks, or did it just fill out the application?
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Tesla made $787 million in profit last quarter. In the same quarter it expensed $1.2 billion of stock compensation, up 76%, mostly because of the CEO pay package from 2025.
So it cost more to pay people in stock than the company earned for the people who own the stock.
If the pay is bigger than the profit, who is working for who?
Oracle took in $11.4 billion of customer prepayments last quarter. Same quarter a year ago: zero. These are paid so far ahead that the 10-Q treats them like a loan, and Oracle books interest expense on them.
This is the same company that sold $43 billion of bonds in nine months and set up a program to sell up to $20 billion of stock.
When a customer has to front you the cash to build the thing they're renting, are they your customer or your bank?
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Starbucks made $222 million last year off gift card and app money people loaded and never spent. The 10-K has a word for it. "Breakage."
No coffee made, no cup, nobody paid to pour it. That's about 8% of their operating profit, from drinks that never existed.
If customers forgetting their own money is 8% of your profit, how hard are you really going to try to remind them?
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it takes a special type of person to understand and predict market movements. good news is, that type of person can also understand how the @X algo works.
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Berkshire’s balance sheet at the end of September: $336.7 billion in Treasury bills. $335.5 billion in stocks.
So the most famous stock picker on earth now holds more T-bills than stocks. Last quarter it sold more of other companies’ shares than it bought, and spent $9.6 billion on its own.
If these guys can’t find anything worth buying, what exactly is everyone else buying?
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In January 2025 Meta decided its servers last 5.5 years, not 4 to 5. Same servers as the day before. That one change added $2.59 billion to its 2025 profit, a dollar a share.
Same month, Amazon looked at some of its own servers and went the other way, 6 years down to 5. That cost them about $1 billion in profit.
They can’t both be right about how long this stuff lasts. Which one is guessing?
Oracle’s latest 10-Q says it has $664 billion in revenue customers have signed up for but it hasn’t earned yet. Read one line further. Only 13% of that shows up in the next 12 months. Half of it, about $332 billion, isn’t expected until year four or later.
Oracle’s revenue for all of last fiscal year was $67.4 billion.
When half the backlog depends on customers still paying in 2030, is that a backlog or just a forecast with a signature on it?
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The 2% inflation target started as a throwaway line. New Zealand’s finance minister said “0 to 1%” on TV in 1988 to calm people down, and the central bank later stretched it to 0 to 2%.
The Fed only made 2% official in 2012. Most rich countries had copied it by then.
Does anyone actually know 2% is the right number, or did the whole world just copy New Zealand’s homework?
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MIT's 2025 study made headlines saying 95% of companies got zero return on generative AI, despite $30–40 billion spent.
Critics noted the "zero return" finding rested on just 52 interviews, and success had to show up within six months.
How did 52 interviews become the statistic everyone quotes?
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In Q3 2026, AWS brought in $46.0 billion of Amazon's $201.9 billion in revenue, about 23%.
It also earned $17.8 billion of Amazon's $28.1 billion in operating income, about 63%.
Is Amazon a store that runs a cloud, or a cloud that happens to run a store?
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The computer that guided Apollo to the Moon ran at about 2 MHz with roughly 4 KB of RAM.
The chip inside some USB-C chargers runs more than 20 times faster.
If a phone charger out-computes a Moon landing, what are we using all this compute for?
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Uber gave Claude Code to 5,000 engineers in December 2025, and the whole 2026 AI budget was gone by April.
Uber also ranked engineers on internal leaderboards by how much they used Claude Code.
If you rank people by how much they spend, what did finance expect them to do?
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