Electoral Calculus (https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/4i0ISPybeH) is a quantitative political consultancy, well-known for its website of election predictions and data.
United Kingdom
Joined September 2016
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In line with our prediction on Monday 2 Nov, Democrats have won control of the US Senate.
The Democrats will win 54-56 seats, close to our forecast of 53 seats (range 50-60).
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
We predict the Democrats will win a majority in the US Senate in the US midterms on Tue 3 Nov, with 53 seats out of 100, including 2 Democrat-aligned independents. (Pred range: 50 to 60)
Republicans are forecast to take 47 seats. (Pred range: 40 to 50)
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
We correctly predicted that the Democrats would win a majority in the US House of Representatives.
Our forecast put the party within a range of 228 to 278 seats. Counting is still under way.
We predict the Democrats will win the US House of Representatives with 239 seats out of 435 in the US midterms on Tue 3 Nov. (Predicted range: 228 to 278)
The Republicans are forecast to take 196 seats. (Predicted range: 157 to 207)
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
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We predict the Democrats will win a majority in the US Senate in the US midterms on Tue 3 Nov, with 53 seats out of 100, including 2 Democrat-aligned independents. (Pred range: 50 to 60)
Republicans are forecast to take 47 seats. (Pred range: 40 to 50)
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
We predict the Democrats will win the US House of Representatives with 239 seats out of 435 in the US midterms on Tue 3 Nov. (Predicted range: 228 to 278)
The Republicans are forecast to take 196 seats. (Predicted range: 157 to 207)
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
Our latest poll-of-polls shows that #Labour has bounced back into an overall majority and would have 365 seats if a general election were held now.
The #Conservatives would be the opposition. #Reform drops to 4th on 57 seats behind the Lib Dems
More here electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
Our exclusive for the @DailyMirror with @FindoutnowUK shows that anti-Reform tactical voting has strengthened over the last 12 months, and could cost the party dozens of seats. ⬇️
mirror.co.uk/news/politics/r…
Exclusive: Nigel Farage could miss out on dozens of seats due to anti-Reform tactical voting at next election, according to new research by @ElectCalculus
mirror.co.uk/news/politics/r…
Electoral Calculus retweeted
‘My gut tells me it's going to be quite close,’ says polling expert Martin Baxter, chief executive @ElectCalculus standard.co.uk/news/london/j…
Electoral Calculus retweeted
Labour surges in London under @andyburnham premiership, @ElectCalculus @FindoutnowUK survey finds standard.co.uk/news/politics…
Our latest MRP poll with @PLMRLtd predicts that if there were a general election now, #Labour would win 353 seats, a majority of 56.
#Conservatives would be the official opposition on 90 seats and #Reform would be third on 81 seats.
Full figures ⤵️
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
With a more crowded political arena than ever, understanding constituency level shifts is essential. 📊
That's where MRP comes in. We break down how it works and the maths behind the map in the latest episode of Politics by Numbers! 🗳️
Watch here ⬇️
youtube.com/watch?v=c70P1uS5…
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Our latest poll-of-polls puts #Labour just 13 seats short of a majority, up 1pc over September as #Reform loses 1pc.
This is Labour’s strongest seat prediction since Oct 2024.
On these numbers #Labour could form a very workable majority with the #LibDems
electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
General Election prediction for Keir Starmer's seat, Holborn and St Pancras, shows Labour holding if a GE were held now, with a tight contest against the Greens.
Please note this is a general election prediction not a by-election prediction, as by-elections behave differently.
Our voter transition graphic shows how party support has changed since the 2024 GE.
• Established parties continue to lose votes
• Insurgent parties gain
• Few voters crossover between left and right
Full graphic⬇️
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
and video⬇️
youtube.com/watch?v=qF0aOxDq…
There has been a 'Burnham bounce' in the polling numbers this month with Labour back in first place and Reform UK in third. When translated into seats, this puts Labour ahead of the Conservative by over 100 seats.
More details: electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
Should Andy Burnham call a snap general election?
In the latest Politics By Numbers episode, we look at what history tells us about PMs who inherit office between elections and the surprising link between Sir Keir Starmer and Sir Winston Churchill ⬇️
youtube.com/watch?v=OYGvjPJu…
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Tune in to yesterday's @bbc5live to hear Martin Baxter discuss the key challenges facing Andy Burnham as he heads to No.10 ⬇️
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002yx…
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
Could London's political map really look like this after the next general election? standard.co.uk/news/politics…
