Michael McDonald

If Mississippi counties continue to report their ballots as they have, Colom is expected to win the U.S. Senate seat michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

The data indicate Peltola most likely wins the Alaska U.S. Senate election michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

This bad take WSJ story about "disillusioned" youth voters annoyed me so much that I decided to debunk it with data. No, it was older voters who didn't vote michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

Florida Governor DeSantis may not be the tonic Republicans need to chase away the blues michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

What to expect with the Mississippi U.S. Senate election michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

I posted a preliminary turnout rate for the 2026 election: 124.3 million voted for a turnout rate of 49.42% among those eligible to vote. Falls short of the 2018 turnout rate of 50.05%, which was the highest since 1914 election.lab.ufl.edu/2026-ge…

I'm posting Election Day turnout by party registration for Delaware, Florida, and Nevada over on the better place. Won't post them here

#earlyvote evening update 11/2: at least 58.4 million people have cast a ballot in the 2026 general election New pre-election record for a midterm election 🥳🎉 This concludes my pre-election early vote updates election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…

I can't believe that I have to write this, but here we are. Numbers are not ballots. michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

It will be a tall order for Florida Democrats to win the Florida statewide offices michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

Maine is close, but I give Jackson the edge to defeat Collins based on the early vote. But there is a lot of uncertainty because Maine is a low volume early vote state michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

My early vote forecasts for Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska. These forecasts are uncertain because these are not high volume early vote states. Democrats start in a hole that they are clawing their way out of, but it may not be enough michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

#earlyvote early afternoon update 11/2: at least 57 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…

#earlyvote midday update 11/2: at least 56 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…

#earlyvote morning update 10/2: at least 55 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…

A big surge in African-Americans voting early in Louisiana has people talking that Democrat Davis has a shot. There's probably not enough juice there for a Demcoratic win michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

Come and get them! My voting-eligible population estimates for 2026. This is where I will post the turnout rates post-election. I usually post those around 5am Wednesday after I stay up all night. election.lab.ufl.edu/2026-ge…

#earlyvote afternoon update 11/1: at least 54 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…

Okay. Here we go. My first election forecasts with the early vote for Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas. tl;dr I generally see agreement with the polling michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

I've written an explainer on how to use early voting to forecast election outcomes michaelmcdonald.substack.com…