purely analytical based to crunch the numbers live on the current election. Data I present is not affiliated for either party.
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Hello everybody. I’m not going to be perfect but I’ll be hand calculating all the data with precision.
Swing States:
In 2020 I predict GA,NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA would all likely go to Biden the night of when looking at the numbers.
Also predicted NC likely to Trump early the…
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NEW BATCH OF VOTES FROM ALASKA SENATE RACE:
New batch over 5.5K votes just came in and Dan Sullivan wins the batch 2,836 to 2,561 over Mary Peltola.
Sullivan nets over 275 votes and Peltola remains firmly in the lead by almost 4,000 votes.
51-46% on 🔴+5 margins in favor of Sullivan over Peltola from this most recent batch.
The analysis still holds firm that Mary Peltola will very likely be the next senator of Alaska over the incumbent Dan Sullivan.
While Peltola is favored to win most batches it’s not impossible for Sullivan to win some batches that come in.
Note this could still take a week or two before an official decision desk makes a call.
Alaska elections take even longer.
NEW BATCH OF VOTES FROM ALASKA SENATE RACE:
Massive batch over 24k votes just came in and Mary Peltola wins the batch 12,605 to 10,872 over Dan Sullivan.
Peltola nets over 1700 votes and extends her lead again to now 4,250 votes over Sullivan.
52-45% on 🔵+7 margins in favor of Peltola over Sullivan from this most recent batch.
The analysis holds and is again better confirmed that Mary Peltola will very likely be the next senator of Alaska over the incumbent Dan Sullivan.
Peltola also has a decent shot to hit the 50% mark as well.
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As I said at the time…
This was factually incorrect and was never correct
Cindy Hyde-Smith is going to represent Mississippi in the United States Senate for the next six years. We believe thousands of votes remain to be counted from dozens of Republican counties, and we are confident those votes will reinforce her path to victory.
Election officials are continuing the normal process of counting outstanding ballots, including absentee ballots. They must have the time to complete that work and ensure every lawful ballot is accurately counted and every Mississippian’s voice is heard.
We expect Democratic lawyers to pull out every stop, and we are prepared. Our focus is on completing the count and returning Cindy Hyde-Smith to the Senate to keep fighting for Mississippi values.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
As of this November 5 post, Democrat Scott Colom led Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by over 1,000 votes with 96% counted in Mississippi's Senate race, which remained too close to call with outstanding ballots projected to favor Colom.
apnews.com/projects/elect…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Unit…
mississippitoday.org/2026/11/05/tho…
FollowingtheNumbersElection2026 retweeted
Scott Colom will almost certainly be the first black senator in Mississippi to be elected by the people through popular vote ever.
The last time there was a black senator elected in Mississippi?
February 4th 1874 Blanche K. Bruce is elected by Mississippi state legislature(not via popular vote).
Bruce was initially born into slavery in Virginia but escaped slavery during the civil war, later went onto college at Oberlin and then became the second black senator after Hiram Revels in 1875.
Bruce was a big advocate for civil rights and spoke against election fraud.
NEW BATCH OF VOTES FROM MISSISSIPPI:
Over 2000 votes just came in and Scott Colom just netted almost 600 of those(1300-~700).
Colom winning this batch by nearly 29% point at ~63-34 margins
This expands Coloms lead to over 1700 votes now.
Again every batch of new vote data is confirming the analysis that Scott Colom will defeat Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi Senate Race
The historical significance behind Scott Colom winning this race is rather important too
Scott Colom will almost certainly be the first black senator in Mississippi to be elected by the people through popular vote ever.
The last time there was a black senator elected in Mississippi?
February 4th 1874 Blanche K. Bruce is elected by Mississippi state legislature(not via popular vote).
Bruce was initially born into slavery in Virginia but escaped slavery during the civil war, later went onto college at Oberlin and then became the second black senator after Hiram Revels in 1875.
Bruce was a big advocate for civil rights and spoke against election fraud.
This last batch that helped the AP/NBC decision desks call it was from Jackson County.
A red county in favor of Hyde-Smith that Colom won the batch 1,063-1,039(+24🔵).
Colom does again ~15 points better than previous margins.
That was the story around the entire state
xitter.twitterapi.xyz/electionstats24/status…
Happy to say the predictive analysis framework we laid out on election night has now come to fruition.
I didn’t have much doubt in this prediction as the framework built was solid based on possible scenarios.
This is why confidence level was rather high when sharing updates.
Understanding past voting patterns, where the remaining votes are coming from and where the largest share of votes are still to come from plays a huge role.
These are the kinds of election races I specialize in.
That is the goal of this account as it stands. Not to be a decision desk, but instead crunch numbers and share my findings.
I will also eventually share a nonpartisan view of what happened to lead to the results that occurred this election across America as well.
And I will also share potentially interesting information I find related to each current/past election(s) that happens as well.
But this account is primarily built around the predictive analysis for each election.
Thank you to all of the new followers across our beautiful country and across the globe.
I had almost no following before election night. There’s more to life than online followers but I am now happy to have an audience to share my work with during elections.
This is a space where you can come for just analysis. I will not share analysis to simply just make anyone happy. I will also not always be perfect as I’m not AI, but I will do my best to share my findings with the highest degree of accuracy I am capable of.
Thank you all across America, and especially including the hundreds of Mississippians who might’ve followed and the thousands of Mississippians who saw the analysis.
THE DAGGER BATCH OF VOTES FROM MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE:
702 new votes come in from Forrest and Copiah counties and Scott Colom wins it 436-251 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets 185 votes at ~62-36(🔵+26) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now near 4600 votes over Hyde-Smith.
We now have official decision decision desks calling this race after 8 days now.
As we’ve said, Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi
BACK TO BACK UPDATES FROM HINDS COUNTY IN THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE:
Hinds County drops again and Scott Colom just won it 745-124 over Cindy Hyde-Smith.
Colom wins the batch 84%-14% (+🔵70 margin) over Hyde-Smith.
Colom nets +621 votes in this batch and extends his lead to over 4,400 votes total and .5% too.
The analysis that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi remains in place.
BACK TO BACK UPDATES FROM HINDS COUNTY IN THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE:
Hinds County drops again and Scott Colom just won it 745-124 over Cindy Hyde-Smith.
Colom wins the batch 84%-14% (+🔵70 margin) over Hyde-Smith.
Colom nets +621 votes in this batch and extends his lead to over 4,400 votes total and .5% too.
The analysis that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi remains in place.
NEW BATCH OF VOTES FROM MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE:
Finally a massive long awaited Hinds County batch arrives.
807 new votes come in and Scott Colom wins it massively 703-96 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets 607 votes at ~87-12(🔵+75) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now closing in on 3,800 votes and will likely keep expanding.
There’s nothing to support a realistic path for Hyde-Smith to win this race over Colom in MS.
Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi
NEW BATCH OF VOTES FROM MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE:
Finally a massive long awaited Hinds County batch arrives.
807 new votes come in and Scott Colom wins it massively 703-96 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets 607 votes at ~87-12(🔵+75) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now closing in on 3,800 votes and will likely keep expanding.
There’s nothing to support a realistic path for Hyde-Smith to win this race over Colom in MS.
Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi
MORE VOTES COMES IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TODAY:
289 new votes from various counties including Clay, Noxubee, Hinds, and Tippah came in and Scott Colom won these batches 235-49 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets +186 votes at ~81-17(🔵+64) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now 3,176 votes over Hyde-Smith.
Analysis holds that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi and his lead will likely keep growing.
MORE VOTES COMES IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TODAY:
289 new votes from various counties including Clay, Noxubee, Hinds, and Tippah came in and Scott Colom won these batches 235-49 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets +186 votes at ~81-17(🔵+64) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now 3,176 votes over Hyde-Smith.
Analysis holds that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi and his lead will likely keep growing.
ANOTHER BATCH OF VOTES COMES IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TONIGHT:
312 new votes from Rankin County comes in and Scott Colom wins this batch 167-139 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets +28 votes at ~54-45(🔵+9) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now rises again and is 2,990 votes over Hyde-Smith.
This is a deep red county by over 20 points that Colom just won a batch by ~9 points.
Analysis holds that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi. Just awful margins for Hyde-Smith to put it simply that she could not afford.
NEW BATCH OF VOTES FROM ALASKA SENATE RACE:
Massive batch over 24k votes just came in and Mary Peltola wins the batch 12,605 to 10,872 over Dan Sullivan.
Peltola nets over 1700 votes and extends her lead again to now 4,250 votes over Sullivan.
52-45% on 🔵+7 margins in favor of Peltola over Sullivan from this most recent batch.
The analysis holds and is again better confirmed that Mary Peltola will very likely be the next senator of Alaska over the incumbent Dan Sullivan.
Peltola also has a decent shot to hit the 50% mark as well.
NEW BATCH OF VOTES FROM ALASKA SENATE RACE:
Almost 5,000 votes just came in and Mary Peltola wins the batch 3,342 to 1,472 over Dan Sullivan.
Peltola nets almost 1900 votes and extends her lead to now over 2500 votes over Sullivan.
68-30% on 🔵+38 margins in favor of Peltola on this last batch.
The analysis framework that’s been in place since last week is better confirmed with the latest batch. Mary Peltola will very likely be the next senator of Alaska over the incumbent Dan Sullivan.
ANOTHER BATCH OF VOTES COMES IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TONIGHT:
312 new votes from Rankin County comes in and Scott Colom wins this batch 167-139 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets +28 votes at ~54-45(🔵+9) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now rises again and is 2,990 votes over Hyde-Smith.
This is a deep red county by over 20 points that Colom just won a batch by ~9 points.
Analysis holds that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi. Just awful margins for Hyde-Smith to put it simply that she could not afford.
ANOTHER BATCH OF VOTES COMES IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TONIGHT:
186 new votes from Grenada County comes in and Scott Colom wins it big at 147-36 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets +111 votes at ~79-19(🔵+60) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now rises again and is closing in on 3k votes over Hyde-Smith.
Analysis holds that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi
ANOTHER BATCH OF VOTES COMES IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TONIGHT:
186 new votes from Grenada County comes in and Scott Colom wins it big at 147-36 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets +111 votes at ~79-19(🔵+60) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now rises again and is closing in on 3k votes over Hyde-Smith.
Analysis holds that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi
THE VOTES WONT STOP COMING IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TONIGHT:
By far our largest batch of the day nearing 1k new votes from Madison County comes in and Scott Colom wins it 546-423 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets 123 votes at ~55.5-43(🔵+12.5) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now rises again up to 2,851 votes over Hyde-Smith.
Again Colom exceeding his prior margins in another county by over 10 points.
Analysis continues to hold that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi
This most recent Rankin County batch that came in this evening of hundreds of votes and Cindy Hyde-Smith only won it ~54-43%.
Yes she netted votes. But that was expected.
Colom cutting the margins by nearly 15 points on this batch.
Again Hyde-Smith needed to exceed her margins in countries to have any chance to win this race and she hasn’t really done that anywhere since election night.
I’m having trouble even finding a scenario where Scott Colom isn’t the next senator of Mississippi based on all of these batches of votes that came in today.
Again the analysis keeps suggesting Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi.
It’s become even more clear at this point
Here’s Rankin County vote data from Mississippi Senate Race.
Comparison to 2024 data provided as well.
There’s potentially still at least 1-2k votes to come out of here based on county reports.
Rankin county has reportedly been working through the weekend to count votes.
This is one of, if not the best opportunity for Cindy Hyde-Smith to cut into Scott Colom’s lead.
But problem I’ve ran into all along for Hyde-Smith to win has been and continues to remain Hinds County.
But even in Rankin based on the likely remaining vote being mail and provisional, I’d estimate Hyde-Smith would net ~300-500 votes potentially at most. And that’s just a rough estimate based on amount of ballots that get accepted.
If Colom does better than anticipated on those provisional ballots he could cut down the net margins even more but that can’t be fully assumed.
Regardless, that’s just nowhere near enough for Hyde-Smith to overcome and it’s why the numbers have supported when the votes are done being counted, Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi.
This accounts for a various amount of scenarios of the remaining vote number from each county.
In fact Colom will likely only expand his lead over Hyde-Smith once the votes are certified.
rankincounty.org/egov/docume…
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THE VOTES WONT STOP COMING IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TONIGHT:
By far our largest batch of the day nearing 1k new votes from Madison County comes in and Scott Colom wins it 546-423 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets 123 votes at ~55.5-43(🔵+12.5) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now rises again up to 2,851 votes over Hyde-Smith.
Again Colom exceeding his prior margins in another county by over 10 points.
Analysis continues to hold that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi
THE VOTES AGAIN KEEP ROLLING IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TONIGHT:
Multiple batches totaling over 530 new votes come in and Scott Colom wins it 297-223 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets 74 votes at ~56-42(🔵+14) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom wins Panola County 154-44 and Hyde Smith wins Rankin County 179-143.
Colom’s lead is now nearing 2,730 votes over Hyde-Smith.
Analysis holds that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi
THE VOTES AGAIN KEEP ROLLING IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TONIGHT:
Multiple batches totaling over 530 new votes come in and Scott Colom wins it 297-223 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets 74 votes at ~56-42(🔵+14) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom wins Panola County 154-44 and Hyde Smith wins Rankin County 179-143.
Colom’s lead is now nearing 2,730 votes over Hyde-Smith.
Analysis holds that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi
THE VOTES KEEP ROLLING IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TONIGHT ONE AFTER ANOTHER:
Another notable batch of 227 new votes come in and Scott Colom wins it 152-69 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets 83 votes at ~67-30(🔵+37) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now back up to 2,654 votes over Hyde-Smith
Analysis holds that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi
THE VOTES KEEP ROLLING IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TONIGHT ONE AFTER ANOTHER:
Another notable batch of 227 new votes come in and Scott Colom wins it 152-69 over Cindy-Hyde Smith.
Colom nets 83 votes at ~67-30(🔵+37) margins over Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is now back up to 2,654 votes over Hyde-Smith
Analysis holds that Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi
THE VOTES ARE ROLLING IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE TONIGHT:
Another larger batch of 354 new votes come in and Cindy-Hyde Smith wins it 230-107 of measure over Scott Colom.
Hyde-Smith nets 123 votes at ~65-30(🔴+35) margins over Colom.
Colom’s lead is now 2,571 votes over Hyde-Smith
Nothing to change to the analysis.
