Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Citi on Aristocrat Leisure $ALL: "Aristocrat reported EBITA (incl JVs) of $2,236 million, ~2% ahead of Citi and and ~1% ahead of VA consensus. "Revenue was in line with Citi and VA consensus. By divisional profit, Gaming and Product Madness beat while Interactive again materially missed Citi and VA consensus. "CEO Trevor Croker has announced his intention to retire in April 2027. "Daphne Guisard (current Chief Commercial Officer of EMEA and Head of Product Madness) has been named CEO (elect). "A final dividend of 51 cps was announced, ahead of Citi (48 cps)." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

Citi on Orica $ORI: "FY26 ~2% ahead; FY27 appears largely in line on bottom line "FY26 EBIT $1,057M (vs VA cons $1,039M) or ~2% ahead. Compositionally, Digital and Specialty Chems drove the outperformance with Blasting largely in line.  Cash flow Y/Y however down 20%, driven by ~$344M in significant items resulting in net debt up Y/Y to 1.46x (vs Cons 1.44x).  "Looking forward, cost reduction program appears to be brought forward, with ~$100M on track by end of 2027.  However, capex appears higher at ~$615M (vs Cons $478M), driving interest guide (implied $244 vs cons $208M), which should largely offset.  "Overall, as usual, no quantitative guidance provided. In absence, we estimate FY26 EBIT beat (~$18M) and bring forward of cost out ($10-20M), offset higher interest (~$36M), and we expect minimal/LSD NPAT revisions. No US supply update however does create uncertainty" #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

Citi on Xero $XRO: "Slight 1H EBITDA miss but EBITDA incl. capex 1% beat; FY guidance upgraded but in-line with consensus "Xero reported adjusted EBITDA of $362 million, up +3% yoy and -2% below CitiE and VA consensus and NPATA of $81 million. "While revenue was slightly ahead, EBITDA miss was driven by lower gross profit margin. "However, capitalised R&D spend of $240 million was lower than expected and adjusted for capex, EBITDA is 1% higher than consensus. "NPATA of $81 million was slightly ahead of CitiE of $79 million due to lower than expected tax expense with PBT lower due to higher D&A and interest expense." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

RBC Capital on GrainCorp $GNC: "Graincorp (GNC) has delivered a broadly inline FY26 result with uEBITDA -27% yoy to $226m, +2%/+1% vs RBCe/Cons, and in line with guidance $200-240m. GNC has declared a final dividend of 14cps (100% franked). "Key takeaways "Result in line with recent guidance: Underlying EBITDA -27% yoy to $226m, +2%/+1% to RBCe/Cons, and in line with recent guidance $200-240m (provided 10-Sep). Underlying NPAT -64% yoy to $31m, +15% vs RBCe/Cons ($27m) and prior guidance $20-50m. Final ordinary dividend 14cps fully franked, bringing total FY26 dividends to 28cps (FY25: 48cps, comprising 28cps ordinary + 20cps special). "No formal guidance (as expected): Consistent with prior years GNC has not provided formal FY+1 guidance. GNC stated it will provide guidance with its February AGM. "Current conditions support solid 2026/27 Winter Crop: ABARES forecasting an East Coast winter crop of 26.6mmt, led by Victoria and southern NSW. "2027/28 Crop outlook constructive: “Recent rainfall across [East Coast Australia] has improved the soil moisture profile and prospects for a larger summer crop in northern regions. In southern regions, rainfall is supporting crop yields, with harvest activity now accelerating strongly.” "FY27 export and crush margins supported by global pricing: “FY27 export and crush margins are expected to improve from FY26 levels, reflecting positive conditions in southern regions and a more constructive global backdrop.” "FY26 Balance sheet in good shape: 'Core cash' of $171m (FY25: $321m; 1H26: $163m) recovered slightly from the half. GNC’s $75m on-market buy-back continues ($38m to date, 51% complete). "MD/CEO Succession: GNC has commenced search process to replace MD/CEO Robert Spurway who has been at the helm for 7 years." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

RBC Capital on Aristocrat Leisure $ALL : "We view Aristocrat's in-line FY26 result to be positive for the company, notwithstanding the retirement of the CEO, as the Gaming Ops installed base was well ahead of market expectations (+6,257 vs market +5,056 and RBCe +5,884). "NPATA of $1,579m was up 2% on pcp and in-line with market while EBITA of $2,236m was flat and slightly ahead with Gaming 2% ahead, Product Madness was slightly ahead, however, Interactive was below market due to increased investment. "Net operating cashflow was down 2% on pcp and slightly below market while net leverage was slightly above at 0.4x. "The company expects NPATA growth on a constant currency basis reflecting momentum into FY27 with continued revenue and market share growth in Gaming, continued market share growth from Product Madness with an increasing contribution from DTC and accelerating performance at Interactive. "CEO Trevor Croker announced he would retire in April 2027 and he will be replaced by Ms Dafne Guisard, who joined the company at the beginning of 2026 as the Chief Commercial Officer for EMEA and has taken on responsibility for Product Madness." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

RBC Capital on Xero $XRO: "Plenty of noise but a headline net positive outcome despite the -2% 1H27 EBITDA miss vs RBCe and consensus in our view, with the upgrade to Xero’s FY28 aspiration and share buyback the key positives. "Positives include: 1) The upgrade to Xero’s FY28 aspiration to revenue of >$4.6bn (previously: $4.2bn; RBCe/consensus $4.432bn/$4.465bn) with a ‘greater than rule of 40 outcome’ (unchanged); 2) Strong US revenue growth: revenue +13% ahead of RBCe and +7% ahead of consensus, and +31k net adds – noting this included a +5k reclassification (i.e. 26k underlying), which compares with RBCe/consensus +24k/+22k; 3) $1bn share buyback announced, 4) continued momentum in Australia with +90k net adds (RBCe/consensus +80k/+78k) and revenue growth +23% y/y (albeit in-line with expectations); and 5) the tightening of Xero’s FY27 EBITDA guidance range from $860m-$920m to $880m-$920m – noting RBCe and consensus are already just above the mid-point of the new guidance range (both $903m). "However with the stronger inferred 2H weighting than RBCe/consensus, and increase to FY28’s aspiration we continue to highlight that consensus is not factoring XRO’s momentum into FY28E, where our EBITDA estimate is currently +8% ahead of consensus (RBCe $1,288m, consensus $1,193m)." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

Down a cumulative -62.48% in two months...

RBC Capital on Inghams Group $ING: "Volumes and pricing outcomes tracking better than our forecasts for 1H27. "However, we think the market will focus on the downgrade to FY27 guidance, as we anticipate it will lead to downward revisions to consensus earnings forecasts." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

RBC Capital on Orica $ORI: "We view Orica's FY26 result as mixed as while the result was 3% ahead of market, the guidance for capex, D&A and interest expense implies a 6% EPS downgrade to consensus estimates. "Orica reported an underlying NPAT of $590m for the 12 months to September, up 9% on pcp and 3% ahead of the consensus estimate of $574m, however, the company did take $42m of US supply disruption costs below the line. EBIT of $1,057m was up 7% on pcp and 2% ahead of the market estimate with slight beats across Blasting Solutions, Digital and Mining Chemicals. "Net operating cashflow was ahead of market, however, leverage was slightly higher at 1.5x. For FY27, the company continues to see positive momentum, strong fundamentals and profitable growth with earnings growth across all three business units, notwithstanding plant turnarounds at KI and Yarwun (Bontang deferred to FY28). "However, the guidance for capex, D&A and net interest costs imply a 6% downgrade to consensus estimates." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

Morningstar on CommBank $CBA: "Commonwealth Bank: Business Lending Powers On, but Costs and Credit Bear Watching "Commonwealth Bank's first-quarter fiscal 2027 cash profit of about AUD 2.8 billion was flat on the second-half quarterly average. "Income growth of 3% was driven by loan growth, but was matched by 3% higher expenses, while loan impairments rose to AUD 300 million. "Why it matters: The update is largely as expected. Home loan growth is slowing, net interest margins, or NIM, steady, and credit quality is normalizing from uncharacteristically low levels. "Home loan applications fell 16% on a year ago, consistent with our forecast for housing credit growth to slow to 3% in fiscal 2027, down from 6% last year." #banks #ASX #stockinfocus #investing

Citi on Flight Centre $FLT: "Overall PBT guidance of $290-325M provided for FY27, with midpoint of ~$308M (vs VA cons $311M), is largely in line. "Below we show this effectively implies no market growth Y/Y. "However, it does assume no disruption in 4Q27e and FLT realizes a somewhat normal Leisure and Touring quarter. "Currently, with consumer and corporate demand proving somewhat resilient to high airline prices, this appears a reasonable assumption. "However, we expect the outlook to constantly change with the various factors at play." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

Going against the bearish sentiment in this week's Weekly Insights @FNArena fnarena.com/2026/11/11/rudis… "I’m backing the industry’s track record, quality and confidence" #investing #ASX #stocks #equities #allweatherman

Citi on CommBank $CBA: "CBA reported cash NPAT of ~$2.8bn, ~1-1.5% below CitiE/VA consensus run-rate. Relative to our forecasts, NII and costs were largely in-line. "The NIM was 'broadly stable' in the quarter vs consensus' expectation of 1bp attrition in 1H27. Costs were ~3% higher in the quarter on higher day count and inflation. "The slight softness in the result vs our expectations was in weaker trading income (impact of higher yields on bond inventories) and slightly higher bad debts (partly higher provision build from lower house prices). "Underlying credit quality was stable, with a modest uptick in mortgage arrears as expected but corporate non-performing and troublesome loans were flat in quarter at $6.9bn. "CET1 of 11.5% was slightly ahead of our 11.4% estimate as IRRBB was a 1bp positive from interest rate management. "Overall, only a modest miss for a quarterly, but it may disappoint given the sharp run in the shares." #banks #stockinfocus #investing #ASX

PGIM Credit: "While the prospects of a more moderate AI buildout sent ripples through the markets last week, we do not expect the U.S. midterm results to derail growth going forward. "As stated last week, our base case for the buildout is a slower-for-longer capex cycle (50% probability) where the AI-related contribution to U.S. GDP moderates slightly in 2027. "Meanwhile, divided government also means that the use of executive actions could expand and lift tariff rates from about 10% to closer to 15%, thus potentially maintaining an inflationary impulse." #investing #stocks #equities

RBC Capital on Life360 $360: "The 3Q26 result was generally solid, with most key metrics in-line/beating our forecasts. "But as has been the pattern in recent times there is always something to pick a hole in - this time it was Advertising, where the 3Q numbers missed by 6% and 4Q guidance was downgraded. "Given that Advertising represents the next big growth driver, the sell-off in the share price is understandable. "We remain bullish on the long-term growth outlook for the Ad business, but better results/story are needed to regain investor confidence. "We believe it's a matter of time, so retain our Outperform." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

Citi on Aspen Group $APZ: "Aspen Group's 2026 AGM reinforced our conviction in the stock. "Management reiterated FY27 guidance of 26.1 cents pre-tax EPS (+20%) and distributions of 12 cents (+9%), with 83% of FY27 development profit guidance already locked in via settlements and contracts on hand. "The investment thesis is built on deliberate, compounding foundations: a 23% EPS CAGR since FY19, and an approved development pipeline that has nearly doubled to ~2,100 lots in the calendar year — representing 8 years of supply at current sales rates, underpinned by a land bank worth ~$100m against an expected Gross Development Value of ~$1.4bn. "Aspen continues to demonstrate strong resilience and superior underlying EPS and NTA growth, underpinned by careful project selection, rigorous feasibility analysis on acquisitions and the consistent unlocking of value through planning approvals and execution." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

Research responses on Ventia Services $VNT rather lukewarm today, but Macquarie stands out (from @FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report): "Macquarie lowers its target for Ventia Services to $5.90 from $6.60 following weaker-than-expected telecommunications and energy infrastructure activity. "The broker notes management reaffirmed FY26 underlying profit growth guidance of 7%-10%, supported by cost reductions despite softer revenue. "While FY27-FY30 earnings forecasts fall by -3%-4%, the broker expects $60m in targeted savings to support margins and future growth. "Following a -16% share price decline, the broker highlights an attractive valuation and dividend yield, along with a solid balance sheet. Outperform rating maintained." #ASX #stockinfocus #investing