Forecast Quant

Bitcoin’s $10 million Power Law date is not the most important part of the story. The real question is whether one equation, published in 2013 and left unchanged, can still describe Bitcoin’s long term growth. Bitcoin’s Power Law model connects price with time since the network’s launch. In the original formulation we are examining, price follows: P(t) = 4.41877086088824 × 10⁻¹⁷ × t⁵·⁵⁹⁸06919936792 Here, t is the number of days since January 3, 2009, Bitcoin’s genesis block. The equation describes a long term curve. It does not predict the price for tomorrow, next month, or the next market cycle. Using that equation without recalibrating its parameters, the model crosses $1 million on December 19, 2035, and $10 million on September 6, 2049. Those dates are mathematical crossings of the curve. They are not promises, price targets, or forecasts with guaranteed outcomes. A model can project a value precisely while the real world remains uncertain. That distinction matters because Bitcoin’s observed price does not follow a smooth path. It moves through booms, crashes, long consolidations, changing market structure, shifting liquidity, regulation, adoption, and shocks no equation can anticipate. The Power Law line is a simplified description of a long term trend, not a complete explanation of Bitcoin’s market. So what would make this model interesting? Its historical fit and its assumptions can be tested. We can compare the unchanged curve with observed BTC prices, measure how far price has moved above or below it, and examine whether the relationship has remained stable over time. We can also ask where the model fails, whether its fit depends on the chosen dates, and whether a simpler or different model explains the data just as well. A curve that looks convincing on a chart is not automatically evidence of a durable law. We have to account for the data window, model selection, uncertainty, and the possibility that the apparent relationship weakens as Bitcoin matures. The most useful takeaway is not “Bitcoin will be worth $10 million.” It is this: a model published in 2013 gives us a clear, falsifiable way to investigate Bitcoin’s long term price history. I’m studying that question with the original equation and historical BTC data. The goal is to show what the model says, what the data supports, and where the gap between them remains. The dates are exact. The future is not. $BTC #Bitcoin #PowerLaw #ForecastQuant

😳 0% fees to pay with bitcoin at Square until Dec 31. Will you spend a single sat? Square finished rolling out bitcoin payments over Lightning on Nov 10. 0% processing fee until Dec 31, then 1%. The tech is ready. The holders are not. Would you pay for coffee in $BTC? Repost it for the friend who'd rather starve than spend a sat.

500k > 2032

Smaller drawdowns and smaller multiples aren't only a Wall Street story; the power law already implies them. On a log-log trend growth slows every cycle, so a 2,000% run from the bottom was never the base case for $BTC. I projected the curve out to 2050 here.

You’re confusing the Power Law itself with the corridors built around it. The original Bitcoin Power Law is a single mathematical curve. It does not establish an upper or lower price boundary. The equation published in 2013 is: P(t) = 4.41877086088824 × 10⁻¹⁷ × t^5.59806919936792 Where t represents the number of days since Bitcoin’s Genesis Block. What’s remarkable is that this equation, developed using only Bitcoin’s first four years of historical data, has remained relevant for nearly 13 years without recalibration. More importantly, it has historically provided a surprisingly useful reference for Bitcoin’s long term price floors, although it is not a guaranteed lower bound. Of course, this doesn’t prove future predictive accuracy. But dismissing the model because someone constructed an excessively wide corridor around it misses the point entirely. I’m studying the original equation, not arbitrary upper and lower boundaries. bitcoin:native

Three prior crossovers is a small sample. What happens to the plan if $72–75K doesn't hold? I'd rather hold $BTC spot with no leverage than size a trade on step 4 hitting $90K by year end.

Handing seized coins to Coinbase Prime is a reminder that custody is a choice, not a default. Institutions can outsource it; individuals can still learn to do it themselves. I wrote a guide to building your own air-gapped setup, free on Kindle until Wednesday (today): amazon.com/dp/B0HQ5NS31N?dpl…

🫡 The next 15 Bitcoin Veterans Days, according to the original 2013 Power Law. November 11, 2027: $135,054 November 11, 2028: $180,473 November 11, 2029: $237,573 November 11, 2030: $308,740 November 11, 2031: $396,552 November 11, 2032: $504,235 November 11, 2033: $634,460 November 11, 2034: $791,120 November 11, 2035: $978,239 November 11, 2036: $1,200,930 November 11, 2037: $1,462,887 November 11, 2038: $1,770,054 November 11, 2039: $2,128,317 November 11, 2040: $2,545,324 November 11, 2041: $3,025,801 Same equation since 2013. No recalibration. Mathematical projections, not guaranteed prices. $BTC | @ForecastQuant

🫡 The next 15 Bitcoin Veterans Days, according to the original 2013 Power Law. November 11, 2027: $135,054 November 11, 2028: $180,473 November 11, 2029: $237,573 November 11, 2030: $308,740 November 11, 2031: $396,552 November 11, 2032: $504,235 November 11, 2033: $634,460 November 11, 2034: $791,120 November 11, 2035: $978,239 November 11, 2036: $1,200,930 November 11, 2037: $1,462,887 November 11, 2038: $1,770,054 November 11, 2039: $2,128,317 November 11, 2040: $2,545,324 November 11, 2041: $3,025,801 Same equation since 2013. No recalibration. Mathematical projections, not guaranteed prices. $BTC | @ForecastQuant

🫡 The next 15 Bitcoin Veterans Days, according to the original 2013 Power Law. November 11, 2027: $135,054 November 11, 2028: $180,473 November 11, 2029: $237,573 November 11, 2030: $308,740 November 11, 2031: $396,552 November 11, 2032: $504,235 November 11, 2033: $634,460 November 11, 2034: $791,120 November 11, 2035: $978,239 November 11, 2036: $1,200,930 November 11, 2037: $1,462,887 November 11, 2038: $1,770,054 November 11, 2039: $2,128,317 November 11, 2040: $2,545,324 November 11, 2041: $3,025,801 Same equation since 2013. No recalibration. Mathematical projections, not guaranteed prices. $BTC | @ForecastQuant

😱 November averages +34.4% for bitcoin. This one just broke below $73K. Seasonality? The Block: November is $BTC's best month, +34.4% avg since 2010. This one: below $73K for the first time since August. Averages are made of other years. Do you trust seasonality charts?

📉 108,700 bitcoin wallets emptied since Oct 16. Still holding yours? Santiment: $BTC has lost ~108,700 non-empty wallets since Oct 16. Them: outside, free, no price alerts. Me: behind the blinds, refreshing the chart. Still holding or did you log off?

🔥 GTA V dropped in 2013 and bitcoin went ~9x. GTA VI drops in 8 days. Thesis? GTA V launched Sept 2013. Bitcoin went ~9x by December. GTA VI launches Nov 19. Correlation: a video game. Causation: also, apparently, a video game. Worst $BTC thesis you've heard this cycle?

Bitcoin’s $10 million Power Law date is not the most important part of the story. The real question is whether one equation, published in 2013 and left unchanged, can still describe Bitcoin’s long term growth. Bitcoin’s Power Law model connects price with time since the network’s launch. In the original formulation we are examining, price follows: P(t) = 4.41877086088824 × 10⁻¹⁷ × t⁵·⁵⁹⁸06919936792 Here, t is the number of days since January 3, 2009, Bitcoin’s genesis block. The equation describes a long term curve. It does not predict the price for tomorrow, next month, or the next market cycle. Using that equation without recalibrating its parameters, the model crosses $1 million on December 19, 2035, and $10 million on September 6, 2049. Those dates are mathematical crossings of the curve. They are not promises, price targets, or forecasts with guaranteed outcomes. A model can project a value precisely while the real world remains uncertain. That distinction matters because Bitcoin’s observed price does not follow a smooth path. It moves through booms, crashes, long consolidations, changing market structure, shifting liquidity, regulation, adoption, and shocks no equation can anticipate. The Power Law line is a simplified description of a long term trend, not a complete explanation of Bitcoin’s market. So what would make this model interesting? Its historical fit and its assumptions can be tested. We can compare the unchanged curve with observed BTC prices, measure how far price has moved above or below it, and examine whether the relationship has remained stable over time. We can also ask where the model fails, whether its fit depends on the chosen dates, and whether a simpler or different model explains the data just as well. A curve that looks convincing on a chart is not automatically evidence of a durable law. We have to account for the data window, model selection, uncertainty, and the possibility that the apparent relationship weakens as Bitcoin matures. The most useful takeaway is not “Bitcoin will be worth $10 million.” It is this: a model published in 2013 gives us a clear, falsifiable way to investigate Bitcoin’s long term price history. I’m studying that question with the original equation and historical BTC data. The goal is to show what the model says, what the data supports, and where the gap between them remains. The dates are exact. The future is not. $BTC #Bitcoin #PowerLaw #ForecastQuant

@grok Is this taken out of context?

Lo vuelvo a decir porque mañana termina la promoción: mi libro sobre autocustodia de $BTC sigue GRATIS en Amazon hasta el miércoles 11 de noviembre. ¿Sabías que en algunos modelos de billeteras frías se ha logrado extraer la semilla con acceso físico al dispositivo? En el libro te enseño, paso a paso, a construir tu propio sistema air gapped. La idea es que puedas guardar tus claves privadas y firmar transacciones de Bitcoin en un equipo desconectado de internet, sin comprar una billetera fría comercial. Descárgalo gratis en Amazon antes de que termine la promoción. amazon.com/dp/B0HQ5NS31N?dpl…

😱 35.4% of all bitcoin now has its public key exposed. Is yours in it? Glassnode: 7.12M $BTC now sit with keys visible on-chain. A future quantum risk, not a hack. Biggest bucket: address reuse. Fresh address = W chews. Reused one = L nibbles. Which is yours?

Maybe not before the end of the year, but very, very soon.

November 2026: $101,197 December 2026: $103,912 January 2027: $106,686 February 2027: $109,244 March 2027: $112,135 April 2027: $114,991 May 2027: $118,006 June 2027: $120,984 July 2027: $124,127 August 2027: $127,336 September 2027: $130,507 October 2027: $133,850