Some of my thoughts:
1) Whilst Norris was only narrowly faster than Piastri in standard dry conditions, their pace difference in the rain was exponentially larger.
Norris was around 1-2s per lap quicker at that point on slightly older tyres.
2) Russell could’ve really done a lot more without losing so much time spinning in the pits as he was the faster Mercedes quite considerably.
3) Whilst Hadjar put up a solid display, he was the slower Red Bull and probably didn’t warrant getting the place back from Max. He appeared faster in the second stint due to a 5 lap tyre offset however in real terms was still a bit behind Max, strong showing nevertheless.
4) Hamilton and Leclerc were fairly closely matched once they cleared the slower cars, Lewis marginally quicker but also Leclerc was missing some front flap which may explain it. Overall, there wasn’t much more to get from the Ferrari, it was just slow.
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🇧🇷 São Paulo GP Tyre Degradation Analysis 👇
In the race only the Softs were used, and we saw a typical graining effect on the tyres that is common in colder events as we had at Interlagos.
The graph shows the global tyre degradation on the Softs. We can clearly see signs of tyre graining with a steep initial rise in degradation but the rate shallows as we do more laps on the tyre.
It results in an effect where the difference between a 20 lap old tyre and 40 lap old tyre on the same fuel load is around 0.15s, however the difference between a fresh tyre and 20 lap old tyre is around 1s.
To make this tyre curve I’ve looked at the clear laps for each driver between Lap 26-56 (eligible dry phase) and corrected them for fuel (0.077s per lap around Interlagos).
The goal is to create the “true” tyre curve behaviour rather than estimating degradation per lap as a single value.
For those who are more analytically inclined, these are the tyre curves that I use for calculating race pace between teammates as well. Removing the effect of the tyre and fuel per lap essentially giving the “ideal” lap time on each tyre on each lap that we can compare across different drivers.
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Great trip down memory lane here. Should be the blueprint for what elite W2W racing between two great drivers looks like.
Looking over the lap times, Lewis had good speed in the 2-3 laps with slicks in the rain.
Only Norris and Antonelli were faster but they also had significantly fresher tyres whereas Hamilton was on 20+ lap old tyres at that stage.
Was quicker than Lawson, Piastri and the Red Bulls ahead on fresher tyres.
Obviously it’s difficult to compare directly due to track position, however by inspection he had a lot of speed.
It’s a strange one because when he was with Button in these conditions it’s where Jenson would excel. Think Brazil 2012 or Hungary 2011.
Long radius slow speed corners 🤝 Norris domination
What Ferrari need, and I think it’s the most important thing to do, is to build a slightly front-limited car for 2027. In this rule set, it’s the way forward.
Red Bull is the prime example. The car isn’t overly sensitive at the front, it’s rather numb aerodynamically but that makes it efficient and capable in all conditions.
Take the opening stint, for 1-2 laps the sharp front end of the Ferrari worked wonders for Lewis as he fired up the tyres and passed everyone on Lap 1. However, after that the rears have overheated and they’re driving on ice.
The Red Bull however naturally has less front grip, so maybe takes longer to switch on but they don’t suffer from the rear stepping out and that keeps the balance for the whole stint.
Rear tyres always wear faster than front tyres, so having a car that is rear-limited isn’t great.
The pattern from the inter-dry phase repeats in the dry as well. It’s just showcased better in extreme conditions.
What Hamilton and Leclerc really needed today was the full wet conditions from Q1. Aside from that, their hands were tied.
Meanwhile on the opposite end of the spectrum we have Aston Martin who have such little front grip that the inter-dry phase worked brilliantly for their car and the rear tyres were in perfect shape 🤣.
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Up and down race for Lewis. Some good moments, decent start but struggled (both cars) on used inters. His pace on the Softs was fairly strong though. Let down by strategy late on not switching tyres on the right lap and made a good save on slicks in the rain. Made the right call early on too, so honestly I think he did all he could with what was presented to him.
Should’ve been considerably ahead of his teammate despite starting last which is slightly annoying, but no point complaining over a P7 and P9.
Not sure yet why he didn’t pit
In situations like this the team need to be adamant the rain would get worse. You can’t let the driver decide anything when he can’t see the damn radar.
If they can see the rain is about to intensify, why not be absolutely clear about it?
From the drivers POV, they can’t tell. He felt fine the lap before and it wasn’t raining that much. Silly
Lewis had a phenomenal opening lap, but seemed to completely cook his tyres in the early laps. The Ferrari has a very sharp front end and that has not helped in the inter/dry conditions at all with the rear tyres.
And then as the track has dried their weakness in S3 on the straights is becoming way more apparent.
Elsewhere Hadjar is looking very fast compared to Verstappen too, in these conditions is very impressive!
