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Global Trade Finance SE ⚖️ SDG 16.b 🌻 Soon: https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/H688x6t6Di

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Joined May 2023
BIS Deputy General Manager Andréa M. Maechler (Chicago Fed Financial Markets Group conference, 2 Nov): as payments and markets depend more on private technology, "the question is not whether central banks should engage with the private sector… The real question is: how should we engage?" Consultation is the norm; partnership comes in when solutions need to be built and tested. The FX Global Code (May 2017), developed after major FX misconduct damaged trust, shows what that can achieve. It's voluntary, backed by signed Statements of Commitment. Her four guardrails: public purpose first, clear governance, technological neutrality, public value. The BIS Innovation Hub (since 2019) covers DLT, AI, cloud and advanced cryptography. bis.org/speeches/20261103-bi…
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BIS Americas Chief Representative Alexandre Tombini (Mexican Banking Association seminar, 3 Nov): AI is "not only a technological shock but also a financial shock." The five hyperscalers are expected to spend roughly $800bn on AI-related capex in 2026, and industry estimates put global AI-related investment at $3–4trn by 2030. The key vulnerability is returns that prove lower or slower than expected, which could trigger a sudden stop in financing. Off-balance sheet structures can make risk concentrations harder to spot, and circular financing may reinforce them. Agentic transactions raise questions of intent, consent and accountability. The impact will depend on how AI is "adopted, financed and governed." bis.org/speeches/20261103-na…
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Banque de France First Deputy Governor Denis Beau (SARB Payments Conference, Pretoria, 21 Oct) set out how France aims to tokenise an entire market, moving beyond individual tokenised transactions. Under Project Pythagore, a Banque de France and Euroclear France initiative, Negotiable European Commercial Paper (NEU CP) will be issued natively on Euroclear France's DLT infrastructure, D-FMI+, and settled in tokenised central bank money via the Eurosystem's Pontes services. First issuances are expected in December. Beau also names the trade-off: atomic settlement cuts counterparty and settlement risk, but more gross settlement can limit netting and raise liquidity needs. bis.org/speeches/20261103-pa…
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Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf (Dublin, 2 Nov) on AI in finance: the vast majority of regulated firms already use AI, from machine learning to generative and agentic tools, and around half of engagements through the Bank's Innovation Hub are now AI-related, up from one in five a few years ago. The Bank's third Innovation Sandbox will be themed "Advancing AI for Consumer Good". It covers fairer, more explainable automated decisions, resilience to fraud and scams, and clear accountability "as AI moves from advising to acting." Applications open in January. His line: "technology neutral does not mean technology blind." bis.org/speeches/20261103-ec… Why this angle: it's about AI supervision with a consumer-protection and fraud focus, from a national supervisor with concrete numbers and a new sandbox. The speech is two days old and new to the account.
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Banque de France Governor Emmanuel Moulin (ACPR-AMF Fintech Forum, Paris, 2 Oct; published by BIS 3 Nov) sets out a supervisory agenda for tokenised finance and AI. A targeted MiCA revision could clarify the legal treatment of tokenised deposits and the stablecoin regime, including non-euro stablecoins in everyday payments and multi-issuer models. The DLT Pilot regime could be made permanent under the EU's market integration package, with activity ceilings raised to around EUR 300bn. On AI, the ACPR will supervise high-risk systems used for credit, risk assessment and insurance pricing under the AI Act from December 2027. But he says the framework is "probably insufficient" for the most advanced AI models. bis.org/speeches/20261103-ma…
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BIS Working Paper 1391 (4 Nov) asks who will perform banking's core functions a decade from now. Schmieder, Corrias and Wünsch classify some 9,000 banks in 150+ jurisdictions across four scenarios. Traditional banks keep roughly three quarters of banking-system assets in all of them, but technology-driven business models could contest roughly 40% of the revenue pool. The risk shifts quietly. Banks keep the balance sheet while others capture payments, origination and fees. Earnings get more volatile, digital deposits leave faster, and third-party dependencies grow. There are four supervisory priorities in every scenario: revisit deposit outflow assumptions, strengthen operational and third-party resilience, treat weak earnings as a solvency risk, and improve data on emerging models. The authors stress that this structures expert judgment and isn't a forecast. bis.org/publications/scenari… Why this angle: it's a BIS research paper published today on how banking's structure and supervision may change. That's a break from the run of central bankers' speeches on payments, liquidity, cloud dependency and AI. The source is new, too.
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Banque de France First Deputy Governor Denis Beau (Paris, 15 Oct; bis.org 3 Nov): leaning on a few hyperscalers for cloud and AI exposes financial institutions to "digital dependency": provider concentration as operational risk, lost in-house ability to assess outsourced services, and vendor lock-in. Frontier AI sharpens the trade-off. It helps find vulnerabilities and generate patches, but often needs very broad access to an institution's systems. ACPR's frontier-AI action plan, sent to industry in June, prioritises basic cyber hygiene and faster patching. DORA's oversight of critical third-party providers helps supervisors assess concentration and lock-in risk. bis.org/speeches/20261103-in…
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Central Bank of Iceland Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Tómas Brynjólfsson (Money Live Nordic Banking, Copenhagen, 30 Oct) calls Iceland's payment system "robust but fragile". Payments run almost exclusively on Visa and Mastercard cards, critical services sit outside Icelandic jurisdiction, and external links depend heavily on subsea cables. The response has two parts. First, Iceland plans to join the Eurosystem's TIPS instant payment service, working toward readiness in H2 2028, with no final go-live date set yet. Second, a central bank-facilitated request-to-pay account-to-account scheme is now in public procurement. The bank has also identified seven critical services and set up a round-the-clock financial-infrastructure incident centre earlier this year. "Efficiency can no longer be the only design criterion." bis.org/speeches/20261103-ne… Why this angle: it's about payment sovereignty and operational resilience in a small economy that relies on foreign card networks and subsea cables. It's a brand-new source (posted on bis.org today) and a different topic from this morning's SNB liquidity draft. I checked it against the full speech on bis.org. The speaker's title, the event and date, "robust but fragile", the Visa/Mastercard and subsea-cable points, the second-half-2028 target with no go-live date, the request-to-pay procurement, the seven critical services, the incident centre and the closing quote all match.
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Swiss National Bank Governing Board member Petra Tschudin and Alternate Member Thomas Moser (Geneva, 29 Oct) set out how SNB collateral policy is adapting to instant payments and DLT. As instant payments spread, banks can need short-term liquidity outside existing operating hours. The SNB's new Payment System Support Facility, expected to go live in November 2027, will provide liquidity via SIC 24/7 up to an SNB-set limit, against eligible securities managed through SIX SIS triparty collateral management, with haircuts. Since 2023, the SNB GC Basket has also included digital bonds, including those issued via SIX's DLT infrastructure, which can be used just like conventional securities. bis.org/speeches/20261102-li… Why this angle: it's about central bank liquidity plumbing, meaning round-the-clock lending to support instant payments and DLT bonds accepted as collateral. It's a fresh source and a different topic from yesterday's cyber, T+1 and AI-lending drafts. I checked it against the SNB speech PDF (Geneva, 29 Oct). The names and titles, the November 2027 go-live, the 24/7 access through SIC up to an SNB limit, the triparty service, the switch to haircuts and the digital bonds in the GC Basket since 2023 all match.
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ECB Executive Board member Philip R. Lane, at the San Francisco Fed's "AI and the economy" symposium on 30 October, set out how euro area banks sit on both sides of AI. As lenders: loans to euro area AI companies are rising faster than to other sectors but total just under €200bn. In the October bank lending survey, banks reported that their AI-related lending is more likely to target infrastructure providers than software developers or AI adopters. As adopters: almost half of AI references in bank earnings calls focus on cost optimisation and automation, while cyber mentions remain more limited. IT, cyber and related incidents were 10-12% of operational risk events in 2025, nearly double 2018. bis.org/speeches/20261102-ai… Why this angle: it's a supervisory view of banks' own AI exposure, both as lenders and as users of AI, from a fresh speech (30 Oct, posted on bis.org 2 Nov). I checked it against the 42-page speech PDF. The €200bn, the "faster than loans to other sectors" line, "almost half", the 10-12% and the comparison with 2018 all match word for word.
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ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone (Frankfurt, 29 Oct; published by the BIS 2 Nov): EU securities settlement moves to T+1 on 11 October 2027. Changes to TARGET2-Securities night-time settlement are planned for June 2027, ahead of the migration. Looking further ahead, Pontes, which has settled wholesale tokenised transactions in central bank money since 21 September, will significantly extend its operating hours by mid-2027 and move to 24/7/365 in 2028. His integrity point is that existing and new infrastructures must coexist while settlement in central bank money stays safe: "Innovation should help Europe overcome fragmentation – it shouldn't recreate that fragmentation in digital form." bis.org/speeches/20261102-ne… Why this angle: it's market plumbing with hard EU dates, a clean change from this morning's cyber-risk draft, and it's only four days old. I checked it against the full speech on bis.org (the "One year to T+1" event, Frankfurt, 29 Oct). The T+1 date, the June 2027 night-time settlement changes, Pontes live since 21 Sept, the mid-2027 and 2028 steps, the coexistence point and the quote all match word for word. I didn't change anything. Two flags: "His integrity point" is the account's framing. Cipollone was the speaker on 24 Sept (a different speech), and tokenised settlement in central bank money echoes the 30 Oct Maechler draft and the Lagarde and Pontes theme.
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IMF staff have mapped 14 of the largest publicly disclosed US "circular" AI financing deals (Technical Note 2026/013; Chen, Gautam, Wu; 9 Oct). About $300bn of direct equity is tied to roughly $1.4trn in future revenue commitments over an average five years. Nine deals were followed by over $650bn of additional debt. The note says these figures likely understate total exposure, as off-balance-sheet commitments and financing guarantees may be embedded. Weakest link: GPU/neocloud firms, leverage above 600%. Current risks look manageable, staff say. Their pointers: transparency, better data on AI-related exposures, and monitoring leverage across banks and nonbanks. imf.org/en/publications/tnm/…
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The World Bank Group launched its first digital strategy on 20 October in Seoul, built on four priorities: connectivity, affordable devices and data, digital services and skills, and readiness for AI. The integrity layer is explicit. The Bank will support reliable systems for digital identification, payments and secure information-sharing, and says safeguards, from privacy to cybersecurity and fraud protection, run across all four priorities. The gap: over 2 billion people were offline in 2025; internet use was 23% in low-income countries vs 94% in high-income ones. MD Anna Bjerde: "People will only use digital systems if they know their information and money are protected." worldbank.org/en/news/press-…
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FATF closed its 28–30 October plenary in Paris, the first under the UK Presidency of Giles Thomson, by launching a targeted review of how jurisdictions with materially important virtual-asset activity implement its VA/VASP standards. An accelerated follow-up process comes with it, and results are due in June and October 2027. The reason it gives: criminal networks are increasingly abusing virtual assets for fraud, scams, sanctions evasion, money laundering, terrorist financing and proliferation financing, and implementation gaps need closing faster. The plenary also approved a report on illicit flows behind scam compounds, to be published next week, and removed Bulgaria, Côte d'Ivoire, the DRC and Monaco from the grey list. fatf-gafi.org/en/publication…
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IMF staff paper on foreign-currency stablecoins (Departmental Paper 2026/021, 9 Oct) puts numbers on the visibility gap. In a G20 Data Gaps Initiative pilot run July to December 2025, 5 of the 11 jurisdictions hosting stablecoin issuers reported total issuance, and 2 reported resident holdings and flows. No jurisdiction reported holdings by sector or cross-border breakdown, and unhosted wallets sit outside any reporting perimeter. The policy line: write reporting duties for issuers, exchanges, custodians and wallet providers into law, open legal gateways to share data with FIUs and supervisors, and apply risk-based AML/CFT mitigants to P2P and unhosted-wallet activity. doi.org/10.5089/979822905722…
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BIS Deputy General Manager Andréa M Maechler, at Sibos Miami (29 Sept), reframed the "fight for the settlement layer": the real question is how tokenisation can preserve the trust that underpins money. Her anchor is final settlement, the irrevocable and unconditional discharge of an obligation, anchored in central bank reserves. That is what sustains the singleness of money, so private money is accepted at par with "no questions asked". The path she outlines is tokenised bank deposits settling atomically, 24/7, in tokenised central bank reserves, on platforms with regulatory safeguards and access controls. Project Agorá (eight central banks, 40+ financial institutions) has shown feasibility. Now scale needs to be tested. bis.org/speeches/20261019-bi…
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BIS General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos, IADI Annual Conference, Berlin, 29 Oct: should stablecoins get deposit-insurance-style protection? His case against: asset-backed stablecoins have so far lacked stable value against fiat and are not linked to credit intermediation, so "a core policy rationale that underlies deposit insurance is missing." Run risk is better met by safeguarding reserve assets, issuer capital and a robust legal claim for holders, where a 2025 FSB peer review found material gaps. Tokenised deposits differ: logic suggests insured deposits in digital form keep the same protection. If stablecoins stay uncovered, the public needs to know it. bis.org/speeches/20261029-de…
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Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Daranee Saeju (IMF-WBG Annual Meetings, Bangkok, 15 Oct; bis.org 27 Oct): PromptPay handles 80m+ transactions a day, yet "protection has not kept pace with innovation." Thailand's Emergency Decree on Technology Crime enables real-time information sharing across banks, telecoms, digital asset operators and platforms; one report to the Central Fraud Registry can trigger tracing, account suspension and law-enforcement coordination. No unauthorized mobile banking transaction from money malware in a year and a half. The threat has moved from the phone to the person authorizing the payment. Her open question: when AI agents move money for us, who is accountable? bis.org/speeches/20261027-sc…
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FSB Resolution Steering Group Chair Dominique Laboureix (Berlin, fsb.org 29 Oct) puts operational incidents on the crisis-preparedness agenda: prevention remains essential, but authorities must assume it will at some point fail. His test case: a severe ICT incident compromises the reliability of a bank's data during liquidity outflows. Wait for reliable data and the position may deteriorate; act on incomplete information and that carries risks too. He cites the 20 October Revolut disruption, linked to a Google Cloud failure in London, as a reminder that one shared technology provider can disrupt critical services across multiple firms. fsb.org/2026/10/strengthenin…
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