Greg Speicher

Ultimately, it may come down to whether he broke the law.

New College (not NFL) OC who is young, aggressive and innovative Open the checkbook for lineman on both sides of the ball who can flat out play and dominate.

Maybe the Berkshire guys know what they're doing. What they bought: #1 frontier model (Gemini 4 Carbon — tops Artificial Analysis, holds the Arena record) Nobel-winning AI lab (DeepMind/AlphaFold); Isomorphic raised $2.1B with Lilly, Novartis, J&J The only real Nvidia alternative: TPUs 30–41% cheaper; Anthropic 1M+ chips, Meta, Oracle, reportedly OpenAI Cloud growing 103%: $30.7B quarter, operating income tripled, $561B backlog One of the largest private networks on earth: a dozen-plus subsea cables, $15B more under way Search accelerating: fastest query growth in five years; ~90% share, 95% mobile 14 products with 1B+ users, five with 3B+; Gemini hit 1B faster than anything Google has shipped; AI Overviews 2.5B YouTube: 15.8% of US TV time, double Netflix; one quarter of YouTube ads ≈ 4x Netflix's full-year ad revenue Waymo: 500K+ paid rides/week, 14 cities, 4,000+ cars, 10x in two years; Tesla ran 25 ~14% of Anthropic (IPO this month, ~$2T) ~5% of SpaceX ($94B); both stakes cost ~$4B $500B revenue run rate, 13 straight quarters of double-digit growth, Q3 +25% Antitrust: no breakup in search, none in ad tech, share unmoved Wiz closed: $32B, $1B+ ARR growing 40% 32B tokens/minute (4x), 8.5M developers, 350M paid subs $265B cash vs. $125B long-term debt Pretty good business.

Not sure this team can go 3-0. Sadly.

For sure. Just a lot to ask for a true freshman.

Historically bad in the Shoe! My goodness! What can Day even say. Wanted Fahey to ball out, wanted it in a big way he’s not even close to being ready. This is the backup plan when the season’s on the line.

Great question because this is not a normal loss. At home with this staff and NIL budget! After USC and with what’s ahead in the BIG.

Fahey is going to get someone killed.

I’ll advised? Alphabet has arguably the best full stack for the AI Industrial Revolution with massive cash flow to fund it.

The NFL experiment is in trouble. And why don’t we have a better backup QB with a $50 million roster. No hate for Fahey but he is too green.

Fahey is a good kid but not ready for this moment.

Sad but true. Very sad.

Three months of price action doesn’t prove a secular short. By that scoreboard, $NVDA has been cooked a dozen times since its IPO. Time to reread the chapter on Mr. Market.

This is naive. China is extremely capable and will continue to make rapid progress in AI with or without distillation.

Mobile, Shorts, and Reels all under-monetized at first before earning their keep. It’s not stupid for Google to disrupt itself, or for ChatGPT to monetize free users. A conversation tells an advertiser far more about intent than ten blue links ever did a single search query, though search remains exceptionally good at capturing commercial intent. That’s a richer potential advertising surface, not a poorer one.

Eric, what’s your current view — can AI Mode monetize at parity or better with legacy search, and over what period? And what carries it: the click as it works today, a changed version of the click, or something else like pay-per-lead, a sponsored option inside the answer, or paid presence across the conversation?

“the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.” - Warren Buffett $GOOGL $AMZN

I don't doubt advertisers feel squeezed. And Google turns the pricing knobs — that came out under oath in the antitrust trials. But that's a different claim than the one you started with. "They're hiding a decline by extracting more" has to show up in the numbers. I already laid out the Q3 numbers (cost per click +4%, slower than last year). I don't see evidence of a dying franchise. Google is moving users into AI Mode knowing it monetizes worse, and doing it anyway. That's deliberately cannibalizing your own business before someone else does. The economics are harder, too. Unlike traditional Search, AI has meaningful marginal costs. Google has to improve monetization and drive inference costs down. Pacing the ads to the cost curve looks like weakness from outside. It's discipline. But look at the optionality. AI Mode queries are three times longer than traditional searches. That's a much richer surface for identifying and monetizing commercial intent. And Google has a separate Gemini app with over a billion monthly users and no advertising yet. That's another opportunity if it can figure out the economics. You see Google milking a dying franchise. I see it cannibalizing a healthy one to build something potentially more valuable. I could be wrong. But I think your argument misses that distinction. I'll be watching paid clicks as ads roll into AI Mode, and then the Gemini app.

The “Google is hiding the decline by squeezing advertisers” story has a problem: the filings say the opposite. Q3 10-Q: paid clicks +8%, cost per click +4%. Last year: clicks +6%, price +7%. Price inflation is lower than it was. Tinuiti’s independent data shows CPCs flat for a full year before a 4% uptick in Q3. That’s not a TV network jacking rates on a shrinking audience. What actually slowed was volume: clicks went from +13% to +8% in one quarter. Google said why on the call — AI Mode queries carry fewer ads, and they’re only now scaling ads into it. That’s a company taking a monetization hit to move users to a better product, on purpose. Meta did the same with Reels in 2022. Everyone called it a decline then too. Maybe it doesn’t work. But if you’re going to call it extraction, show me the extraction. The numbers show the opposite.

what about credibility?