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Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) profile picture

Bud Davis

@JBudDavis

CFB Analytics |🏆 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge

buymeacoffee.com/jbuddavis
Joined June 2020
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Photo by Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)Photo by Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)Photo by Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)Photo by Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)Photo by Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)Photo by Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)Photo by Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)Photo by Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)Photo by Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)Photo by Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)
📊Recruit Expected Value v3 ▫️Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit ▫️Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level": - #1 Recruit is worth ~20X - Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X - Other 5 Star: 5-8X - 4 Stars: 1-5X ▫️Spend NIL accordingly
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Happy Veteran's Day to all who served Thinking about my paternal Grandpa who served as an engineer building front-line air fields across Europe. His letters home reveal a kid who missed his family (& hunting w/ his dog) Here are his photos from landing on Utah Beach on D+11
Image from Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)
Image from Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)
Image from Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)
Image from Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)
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We know much less about my maternal grandfather's service. He didn't like to discuss it and was a coal miner's orphan w/ few people to write home to . All we know is he served in a support role in the Pacific w/ the 5th Air Force & Far East Air Service Command.
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No exaggeration. This might actually be the worst thing you'll ever looked at in your entire life: Florida Offense vs Oklahoma
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Lol the Light Box usage by Oklahoma with UF's 12 usage and Sack/Scramble rate is killing me
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looking at this offense and trying to find ANYTHING
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Brad White really got away from his tendencies vs OU. Varied the personnel and went way heavier on the boxes. Blitzed a ton w/ lots of Man on the backend. (got smoked by a bad OU offense)
Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) profile pictureBud Davis@JBudDavisNov 10
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Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) profile pictureBud Davis@JBudDavisNov 5
Oklahoma ▫️Pretty poor offense that is taking a lot of sacks ▫️Done better vs 3-3-5 which Florida bases out of ▫️Doing better throwing to the TEs and likes to target the slot (need Ni & LB to cover well)
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to clarify since i'm so good at chart titles, this is florida's defense vs ou
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"need Ni & LB to cover well" lol 2.3 epa/play on TE tgts
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CFB film breakdown content slop about to go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Kegan Reneau (@KeganReneau) profile pictureKegan Reneau
@KeganReneauNov 10
Gentlemen, you had my curiosity, but now you have my attention
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Image from Kegan Reneau (@KeganReneau)
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Unlike our holy and always insightful CFB analytics content
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I should post this disclaimer every week
Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) profile pictureBud Davis@JBudDavisNov 9
Replying to @BanFallWeddings
I think season long Opp Adj EPA/play is a very solid representation of how a team has played to-date. I've never done a compariison against other metrics nor testing of predictiveness It's just a value I made, a value I like, and something I have fun posting every week
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📊Opp-Adj EPA/Play Wk 1-10 ▫️Irish are the real deal ▫️Unbeaten Utes visiting Arizona. Solid #pac12afterdark ▫️Texas kids used to dream about scoring points. Now they dream of operating a Buc-ee's franchise ▫️Cougar Offense vs Ram Defense. It will be SOMETHING.
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Oklahoma ▫️Pretty poor offense that is taking a lot of sacks ▫️Done better vs 3-3-5 which Florida bases out of ▫️Doing better throwing to the TEs and likes to target the slot (need Ni & LB to cover well)
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📊Adv Stats Playcalling Sheet Florida ▫️Terrible sack & scramble EPA ▫️Actual pass atts are good, esp to TE ▫️Run game is slightly inefficient ▫️UF needs to lean way more on the QB-run. Huge for Buster at GT. You've got 2 similarly mid QBs, you can risk it Request in comments
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dirty dina represent
Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) profile pictureBruce Feldman
@BruceFeldmanCFBNov 1
BREAKING: FSU has fired Mike Norvell. Rick Stockstill has been named the interim head coach.
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Nick Gurol (@run_the_sims) profile pictureNick Gurol
@run_the_simsNov 3
Hand up! I put some slop on the timeline here. I got a lot of good feedback and did my best to incorporate it while taking another stab at this. I think all teams should be passing at least a little more. From my analysis, the "optimal" run-pass mix on early downs lands somewhere between 56% and 75%.
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📊Opp-Adj EPA/Play Wk 1-9 ▫️Another #blessed weekend of CFB ▫️BUTT ▫️Toad defense is crushing, great matchup w/ a fun Arizona defense this weekend ▫️Bobcats & Boise almost combined for 100 ▫️All in, Norvell is going to make ~$89M for 41 wins at FSU
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OFF/DEF Rushing & Passing
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Image from Bud Davis (@JBudDavis)
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G5
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