UK GP ๐ฉบ and long-term investor. Daily market dissections with dark humour ๐ช Built from ยฃ0, no inheritance, no leverage. Full portfolio public on eToro ๐
Gloucester, England
Joined March 2014
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UK GP ๐ฉบ First in my family to go to university, and the first to invest. Built from ยฃ0, no inheritance, no finance degree.
+25.6% this year. Risk score 4/10. No leverage, no shorting.
This is Scalpel to Stocks ๐ช Here's the whole story ๐
By day I'm a GP. By 6am I'm reading earnings reports with a coffee, because it turns out the skills overlap more than you'd think. Take a history, look for the red flags, ignore the noise, and never panic in front of the patient.
I didn't start well. In 2022-23 I day traded, which is a bit like treating yourself with whatever's in the medicine cabinet. Lots of activity, very little healing. ๐ข I stopped, and rebuilt everything around one boring, brilliant idea: buy good businesses and leave them alone long enough for compounding to do the heavy lifting.
Where it stands today, straight from my eToro profile:
๐ +25.6% so far in 2026, +27.3% over the last 12 months
๐ก๏ธ Risk score 4 out of 10, and it hasn't gone above 4 all year
โ
69% of trades profitable, two thirds of months in the green
๐ Worst dip this year: about 9%
๐๏ธ Active every single week
Every position is public. The winners, and the ones that have humbled me.
I'd rather show you the scars than pretend I don't have any.
If you want to see the full workings, the thesis behind each holding and the whole journey, it's all on my eToro profile:
etoro.com/people/cosmosephirโฆ
A bit more about Scalpel to Stocks:
scalpeltostocks.com
Not investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. ๐
Good night Scalpels ๐
Dow +0.5%, S&P 500 +1.3%, Nasdaq +1.6%.
Memory chips led the bounce: Sandisk +13.7%, Micron +11.9%.
Tuesday's hot CPI, already filed under "someone else's problem".
Thursday: does the rally keep its memory, or forget by lunch?
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A chip company is now worth more than America's biggest bank ๐ฆโก๏ธ๐ป
$AMD is up about 9.7% today and back above $JPM in market value. Six days ago people were writing the AI trade's obituary. Tonight Jamie Dimon's vault is being overtaken by a firm that sells extremely expensive sand ๐๏ธ๐ฅ
Full disclosure: AMD is my biggest holding, so I'm trying very hard to look calm ๐
Proper comeback, or just short sellers sprinting for the exits?
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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Berkshire Hathaway is up 13% in a month. The Nasdaq 100 is down 10%.
From the 9 Oct close to Tuesday's close (price change):
$BRK.A +13.1%
$Coca +10.1%
S&P 500 -3.7%
Nasdaq 100 -10.2%
$META -10.8%
$GOOG -18.3%
The Kobeissi Letter flags it as Berkshire's biggest monthly lead over the S&P 500 since 2010. A railway, an insurer and a cash pile beat the AI trade, and Coke came along for the ride.
I hold Coke and Meta, so my portfolio has spent the month politely arguing with itself.
One month isn't a trend. Today the Nasdaq 100 is up about 2% and Berkshire is a touch lower.
Boring compounder or AI dip: which would you rather own for five years?
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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Wall Street is queuing for Anthropic like it's the last telly on Black Friday ๐
Bloomberg says the $ANT IPO is "multiple times" oversubscribed: up to $90.4bn raised at $70-$78 a share.
Same morning, Sam Altman reportedly told Samsung AI demand has been "double counted" ๐คก
Nasdaq futures +1.9% anyway ๐
Deal of the decade, or the top with a ticker?
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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๐จ NVIDIA IS OVERSOLD. McDONALD'S IS OVERBOUGHT. ๐จ
I ran 14-day RSI on 128 big US-listed stocks at Tuesday's close. The two most oversold and the three most overbought sum up the last month in one picture.
๐
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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1/5 Nvidia $NVDA | RSI 23.9 | most oversold of the 128
Down 25.4% in a month to $168.89. Up about 5% pre-market today, so the bargain hunters got there before this thread did.
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Wall Street spent Tuesday panicking about prices. Then overnight, someone found the rocket fuel.
๐ฆ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐ฝ๐ฒ๐น ๐๐ผ ๐ฆ๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ ๐ช | ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ฑ๐ฎ๐ ๐ญ๐ญ ๐ก๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ: ๐๐ผ๐๐๐๐ผ๐ป, ๐ช๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ป ๐๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ๐บ
Good morning Scalpels.
๐ Mission Control, 6am. Yesterday the inflation warning light came on: US prices up 0.4% in October vs 0.3% expected. Two-year yields jumped the most in 19 months, markets now price a December rate hike, and $NVDA fell 5.5%.
Then the FT says Anthropic's bankers want to lift its IPO to $1.5 trillion or more. $CRWV beat, raised its guide and jumped 13% after hours. SoftBank fell 10% in Tokyo, then clawed it back.
And one for the $AMD crew: Anthropic says Claude got itself running on AMD's MI355X chips in about 3 days, with almost no human help. That used to take engineers 6 to 12 months. ๐ฐ๏ธ
So, Mission Control: is the AI rocket back on course, or is the Fed about to pull the abort lever?
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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๐ฐ๏ธ Rest of the flight log:
๐ US close: S&P 500 -0.38% to 7,520.93, Nasdaq -0.74%. The Fed's Goolsbee called the inflation report "borderline disturbing".
๐ฅ Healthcare has beaten tech by 35.6 points over six months, the biggest gap in 25 years (per Kobeissi). Quietly lovely for $LLY and $ISRG.
๐ Asia: Taiwan led, with $TSM +3.1% after October sales came in nearly six times last year's. Nikkei +0.8%.
๐ช๐บ Europe reports today: Siemens Energy, E.ON and RWE.
๐บ๐ธ US: $QBTS before the open; $FNV and $CTVA after the close.
My rule: rockets shake on the way up. I don't steer by every warning light. Same monthly fuel, same course. ๐
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Good night Scalpels ๐
Dow -0.3%, S&P 500 -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.7%.
Hot CPI, a 10-year auction at 5.02%, and Microsoft (I hold) -2.2% after Anthropic launched Claude Sheets.
Somewhere an Excel macro just felt a chill.
Wednesday: bounce, or more of the same?
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Uncle Sam asked to borrow $42bn for ten years and the world said "go on thenโฆ but it'll cost you" ๐ธ๐ฌ
Today's 10-year auction cleared at 5.02%, foreign demand was soft, and the new 5% coupon is the highest since at least 2008.
When the world's safest borrower has to pay up, everything priced off it, from mortgages to tech valuations, feels the draught ๐ฅถ
Would you lock in 5% for ten years, or keep chasing stocks? ๐
$TLT $SPY $QQQ
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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US households now owe $19.1 trillion.
That's up $334 billion in a single quarter, per the New York Fed this afternoon.
Mortgages $13.4T. Car loans $1.73T. Credit cards $1.29T. And 5.0% of the lot is in some stage of delinquency, up 0.3 points on the quarter.
Same day as a hot CPI print. Borrowing more just as rates look like heading up is a bold strategy.
Who feels it first: the banks or the shops?
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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Inflation's newest villain: your crisps ๐ฅ
October CPI +0.4% vs +0.3% expected. Core +0.3% vs +0.2%. Snacks +1%, beef +0.9%. Waller already said a hot print means a half-point hike should be on the table in December.
So Nasdaq futures are down 1.2% and the 2-year yield jumped 15bp+. Monday was the free trial, Tuesday sent the invoice ๐งพ
Fed in December: 25 or 50? ๐
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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๐จ 5 FAMOUS NAMES STILL 40%+ OFF ๐จ
Monday was a strong day and all five of these joined in. They're still 40% to 61% below their 52-week closing highs.
Big brands, much smaller price tags ๐
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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1/5 FICO $FICO | โ60.8% | $723.76 vs $1,844.98 high (12 Dec 2025)
Every mortgage still needs a score. The shares lost theirs.
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AMD jumped 13% yesterday. Nvidia fell 4%. Same AI arena, very different landings.
๐ฆ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐ฝ๐ฒ๐น ๐๐ผ ๐ฆ๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ ๐ช | ๐ง๐๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ก๐ผ๐: ๐๐น๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐, ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ! ๐๏ธ
Good morning Scalpels.
Last week the chip contenders got thrown off the Travelator. Yesterday they climbed back on. ๐๏ธ
๐ข $AMD +13% to $508.58. Oppenheimer upgraded it with a $600 target, and Google Cloud picked AMD processors to run its new AI chip systems. Contender of the night.
๐ด $NVDA โ4% to its lowest close since April, with an investigation around its CEO hanging over it. The reigning champion is on the crash mat.
The S&P 500 had its best day since April. Today's final event is the Eliminator: US inflation at 13:30 UK.
Is AMD the new champion, or did it just win one round? ๐
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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The rest of the arena ๐๏ธ
US close Monday: Dow +2.2%, S&P 500 +2.3%, Nasdaq +2.7%. The chip index rose nearly 7%, and $AVGO +8.8%. $CEG raised its full-year guidance.
Overnight: Nikkei +2.6%, KOSPI about +4% as Korean chips piled back in. Alibaba in Hong Kong โ3.4%.
Futures: S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq flat. Bitcoin stuck near $74.7k while stocks sprinted.
Today's calendar ๐
โข 13:30 UK: October CPI (forecast +0.3% headline, +0.2% core, 3.9% a year)
โข 14:35 and 18:30 UK: Fed's Logan and Schmid speak
โข Results: $CRWV CoreWeave after the close, plus $OXY
Markets price about 84% odds of a December rate hike, so a hot number would sting.
I hold $AMD $CEG $BABA. One good round isn't a championship. Monthly contributions, no leverage. Not advice.
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Good night Scalpels ๐
Dow +2.2%, S&P 500 +2.3%, Nasdaq +2.7%.
Last Thursday the market fell down the stairs. Tonight it's acting like nobody saw.
Tuesday: follow-through, or the hangover?
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Results night after the bell. Not one big name fell.
๐ข $SANM +20.4%, sales smashed its own guide
๐ข $TTD +20.1%, beat, Q4 guide well above forecasts
๐ข $AAON +14.2%, beat, outlook raised
๐ข $TTWO +4.2%, bookings fell but GTA VI is 10 days away
After-hours prices vs today's close. Not advice.
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Anthropic just launched two new Claude models in the middle of a Monday rally ๐ค
You still can't buy Anthropic shares. So the market buys its landlords instead:
$AMZN +3.4%, $GOOGL +1.9% on the day (live, ~19:05 UK).
Owning the cloud the AI lives in beats owning the AI. Less glamorous, same rent cheque ๐ธ
I hold Amazon. Not advice.
Would you rather own the genius or the landlord?
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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๐จ 5 BIG US BANKS BY P/E ๐จ
The five biggest US banks all trade between 12 and 14 times trailing earnings. The interesting bit is whose profits are actually growing.
๐
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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1/5 Morgan Stanley $MS | 14.4x trailing P/E | The priciest of the five, which in banking still only means 14 times.
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Thursday's sell-off, half undone by Monday afternoon.
Versus Wednesday's close (live, ~16:25 UK):
$AMD +2.6%, $META +1.5%, $GOOGL +0.8%: back above.
$NVDA -11.8%, $MSFT -2.9%: still below.
S&P 500 -2.1%, having won back about half of Thursday's drop (Nasdaq 100 about two-thirds).
The market didn't fall out of love with AI. It just stopped paying the same price for every name in it.
Which would you rather buy here: the ones that bounced, or the ones that didn't?
I hold $AMD, $META and $MSFT. Not advice.
James | Scalpel to Stocks
Nvidia's having a Monday. The rest of AI isn't. ๐ฟ
Premarket vs Friday's close:
$NVDA โ5.9%
$AMD +4.3%
$GOOGL +2.7%
Nasdaq 100 futures +0.9%
Nobody's leaving the AI party. They're just swapping dance partners while the host is stuck in a board meeting. ๐๐ช
I hold $AMD (no leverage, not advice).
One-day wobble, or the start of a proper rotation out of Nvidia?
James | Scalpel to Stocks
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โ๏ธ MORNING POST
Monday after a week of AI whiplash.
S&P futures +0.4%, Dow +0.6%, Nasdaq 100 slightly red. Taiwan +6% overnight after its worst week in 20 years.
On my radar: $CEG reports before the open (date unconfirmed), $HIMS after the close. CPI tomorrow, with ~80% odds priced for a December hike.
Dip-buyers or dead-cat bounce?
James | Scalpel to Stocks