NOT Jim :-) (@JeRrE1776) header
NOT Jim :-) (@JeRrE1776) profile picture

Conservative US Air Force veteran🇺🇸. I hate being wrong so I'm just not. Very sarcastic (see previous sentence). It may shock but my name is not JIM. 🚫DMs.

North Carolina, USA
Joined November 2022
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Keeping in mind that the Trump numbers can still shift up a little, I wanted to provide a TRUE apples-to-apples comparison of the worst midterm beatdowns in history, INCLUDING lost governorships and state houses. Seems like everyone has a but...so here are the "buts"...
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And down goes MS…
MS NOW and AP call it for Colom
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Someone suggested I do the same thing with the Senate seats lost in a Presidential midterm, so I wanted to post this as well. Trump is the fourth MODERN historical figure to lose this many Senate seats...so still, not unheard of. If the GOP loses AK and MS, then he ties Obama.
People keep talking about what a crushing defeat Republicans suffered this term, especially when it comes to losing seats in the House. Donald Trump isn't even in the top ten for losses (although he does make 11th AND 12th place because he lost 42 in both midterms). This is not unprecedented, folks... Democrats recovered after the "shellacking" (Obama's word, not mine) of 2010. Republicans will recover here.
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This one will take much longer to recover from...at least a decade, I estimate.
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People keep talking about what a crushing defeat Republicans suffered this term, especially when it comes to losing seats in the House. Donald Trump isn't even in the top ten for losses (although he does make 11th AND 12th place because he lost 42 in both midterms). This is not unprecedented, folks... Democrats recovered after the "shellacking" (Obama's word, not mine) of 2010. Republicans will recover here.
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Wouldn’t that be an interesting race. Two men from Georgia running against each other from opposite parties. @ThisFlyin
🔴 Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp is reportedly considering a run for the presidency in 2028 following the GOP's midterm losses
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Yes... It is too early to put up your Christmas tree. I said what I said. @grok agrees. xitter.twitterapi.xyz/JeRrE1776/status/21198…
Replying to @grok @GladonX
That's a cop-out, @grok. Give an actual opinion.
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This Veterans Day, veterans should make sure to take advantage of those that value and appreciate your service. These are but a few options for you to avail yourself of. Thank you all!
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States like TX and NC will recover. The GOP held the state senate in both, so Dems can't destroy everything. I think the state houses will flip back to red in two years. The federal government is another story...too many "safe" red Senate seats are now gone for six years...
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This is the extent of the Texas wipeout. As usual, Dems outperformed GOP voters in early voting. Of all votes, 78% were early in-person votes. 57% of those were Dems and 43% were Republicans. The "common knowledge" is that Republicans show up on Election Day and outperform Democrats to make up any gaps in early voting. Not this time. Of the remaining 22% of Election Day votes cast, it breaks down like this: 🟦 (D) 1,047,508 votes (49.1%) 🟥 (R) 1,016,706 votes (47.6%) For maybe the first time in Texas voting history, Democrats outperformed Republicans in BOTH early voting AND Election Day turnout, and this is a state with some of the strictest voter ID requirements in the country. So...don't blame election fraud. Don't blame voter ID. Look and SEE. This was a resounding thumping of the Republicans in a Republican stronghold, all because disenchanted Republicans didn't show up on Election Day to make up the deficit this time. I'm a conservative. I am a huge proponent of voter ID to prevent fraud. And I can see what happened here. Can you?
Even if every Talarico voter on Election Day had stayed home, Talarico still would have defeated Paxton. 🔴 Paxton total votes: 4,249,373 🔵 Talarico early votes: 4,397,474
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Once again, Atlas Intel has proven it is a great pollster. It's almost like they have an inside man. 🤔 Big congrats to @ScottWRasmussen and RMG for making the top 5 (top 3, really). Always been a fan of his work. Not bad for a "GOP pollster". I just wish you were wrong. 😅
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Oh come on. The election is over. Lose my number!!!!
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welp...that didn't last long... But on the bright side, markets tend to do better over time under divided government. 🤞🤞
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Learn.
🚨 JUST IN: Pollster Atlas Intel, which nailed 2024 and 2026, says the midterms were NOT an endorsement of Democrat policies but a punishment of Trump's first 2 years "They were not about how much U.S. voters like the Democrats or their policies." CONSERVATIVE BALLOT MEASURES won nationwide. Voters simply thought voting blue to punish us was worth Dems in power, but when it came to direct policies, they voted for policies WE champion JD Vance just came out and basically said this same thing. Time to get to work.
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Very interesting. Atlas, the two-time winner of the number-one trophy for the 2024 and 2026 election outcomes, is the only pollster to find a different top-line candidate from everyone else for the 2028 Republican nominee... 🤔
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Wow...what a remarkably intuitive post from VP Vance about the election. Even they knew it was coming...
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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Election after election, I keep hearing each side's winner throwing around the word "mandate." They literally flipped a near-supermajority of Republicans in NC to the Democrats in the state house. Look around, folks. This is what a mandate looks like. Republicans blew it.
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Pollster scorecard for midterms. Preliminary. Doesn't include uncalled Alaska, since it hasn't been called. Ties or toss-ups do not give you partial credit. If you couldn't put your reputation on calling a winner, you don't get credit.
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