$BTC
77-78K. ā³
On the HTF, liquidations continue to accumulate to the upside, with a large cluster sitting around the 77ā78K region.
This is the next major area I expect price to sweep, even if we see another local low before getting there.
After continuously sweeping the lows over the past few weeks, this isn't the time to flip bearish. The downside liquidity has been repeatedly targeted, while the upside remains the next major magnet.
$BTC
Did I miss the last move from 80K to 73K? Yes, but...
Caught 96K ā 74K.
Caught 65K ā 76K.
Caught 76K ā 64K.
I was also bearish at 87K, targeting a move down to 80K. Unfortunately, price has been moving against my long positions since.
I'm still holding both my long positions from 59.4K and 76.2K, while continuing to buy spot on every dip.
Time will tell. š
$BTC
Buying the fear...
Third big bid filled.
Exactly where most are getting fearful, I'm getting more exposure.
Let the games continue. š²
$BTC
Bid triggered... āļø
The second stink bid has been swept, meaning I've added another 10% to my spot holdings.
My average spot entry has moved up slightly, now sitting around 62.3K.
Nothing changes with the overall strategy. I'm continuing to accumulate on weakness rather than trying to predict the exact bottom. I'd rather have my bids filled on the way down than sit on the sidelines waiting for a perfect entry that may never come.
I've now had my first two 10% orders filled. Two more remain lower at 73K and 70K, each representing another 10% of my current spot balance.
If we get another leg down, I'll be adding more. If these orders never fill, I'm already positioned for the move higher.
The goal remains the same: accumulate during periods of fear and hold for significantly higher prices in 2027ā2028.
Don't overcomplicate it.
Bid the dips. š
$BTC
Introducing my next pivot...
517 days before the halving.
In previous cycles, this timeframe has aligned with bear market bottoms. This cycle, however, Bitcoin bottomed earlier, meaning this pivot could mark a higher low instead.
Bought some more spot at 73K.
Tick Tock. š
$BTC
3 phases...
Bottom phase (in progress)
Expansion phase ā³
Topping phase ā³
Last bull market, Bitcoin made a new ATH 32% faster than the previous cycle.
If the same pattern repeats this cycle, we could see a new ATH as early as June.
Don't lose sight of the bigger picture.š
$BTC
On the 90D liquidation map, a Ā±10K move from current price would trigger:
ā¢ $5.67B in long liquidations
ā¢ $11.89B in short liquidations
That's more than 2x as much short liquidity sitting above price compared to the long liquidity below. Towards the upside, the local target remains 78ā79K, where a significant amount of short liquidity is stacked.
Higher.
$BTC
Trade the trend...
Deviation below the range lows.
Next range: 100K-85K.
Higher. š
$BTC
Trade the trend...
The trend has shifted to the upside. During a bull market, deviations below range lows can be capitalized on and often provide great opportunities to enter swing longs.
Both of my swing long positions are now open, and Iām not planning to take any profit until price reaches or gets close to 160K.
I'll continue entering swing longs while the trend remains bullish. Once the time comes to start shorting again, I'll be ready.
The trend is your friend.š
$BTC
Last time I received this much hate was at 80K during the bear market rally. Price kept pushing higher against my short position, which eventually played out.
The same thing is happening now, except I'm on the opposite side. I'm very bullish, yet price keeps pushing lower against my long positions and spot buys.
I always position slightly early. Catching the exact bottom isn't the goal. Catching the bigger move is.
I'd much rather have some positions sitting in a couple of percent of drawdown while being positioned for the next major expansion than sit on the sidelines waiting for the perfect entry and potentially miss the entire move higher.
The strategy hasn't changed. I'm prepared to be early, I'm prepared to sit through some volatility, and I'm prepared to hold for much higher prices.
Time will tell. š
$BTC
Don't get bearish at the range lows.
This area is always where bears get extremely loud and most become fearful of the market. Price will likely give a local bounce towards the 78ā79K area.
This isn't the time to be looking for shorts. š
$BTC
Keep it simple...
Price is back inside the range. Just like with previous ranges, look for longs near the range lows and stay cautious around the range highs.
Personally, I'm only looking for longs since the HTF trend remains bullish.
Range lows offer the best opportunities to long. This is typically where bears get the loudest and most participants become fearful.
That doesn't make me bearish. I'm extremely bullish on the HTF, but until price finds acceptance back above the range, expect more chop.
Bid the lows. Stay patient. š
$BTC
Just like the previous cycle, SPX is experiencing a correction during the early stages of the BTC bull run.
Historically, these SPX corrections have coincided with Bitcoin forming significant lows before the next expansion higher. Rather than leading to a prolonged breakdown, these periods of weakness have provided opportunities to accumulate BTC ahead of the next leg up.
We're seeing a similar setup develop again. SPX is correcting, BTC is pulling back, and the broader market is becoming increasingly bearish.
I view this as a typical retracement within the larger trend, not the beginning of a new bear market. If the historical relationship holds, this could be another opportunity to position ahead of higher prices.
I'm buying here. š
$BTC
Expectations vs Reality.
The last time price was at 75K, most were greedy and upset that they had missed the bottom.
Now price is back at 75K, and most are calling for new lows.
Reality is that price hasn't changed, sentiment has. With price down 14% from the recent highs, bears are getting louder, and most are waiting for the low 60Ks before buying.
Just like they got front-run at the lows last time, their bids will get front-run again because they're too greedy to buy these prices.
New lows aren't coming. š
$BTC
Expectations vs Reality.
Most will get front-run again.
When price pushes lower, those targeting 75ā72K will eventually lower their targets to the 60s or even new lows.
That shift in sentiment will be the best signal to buy and swing long.
My second swing long entry is at 74.3K.
The bottom is in. Snap back to reality. š
$BTC
Welp...
Congrats to those who caught the move down, but this isn't the time to be bearish.
We've had the pullback. Now it's time to take advantage of it.
Time to bid. š
$BTC
Bid triggered... āļø
The second stink bid has been swept, meaning I've added another 10% to my spot holdings.
My average spot entry has moved up slightly, now sitting around 62.3K.
Nothing changes with the overall strategy. I'm continuing to accumulate on weakness rather than trying to predict the exact bottom. I'd rather have my bids filled on the way down than sit on the sidelines waiting for a perfect entry that may never come.
I've now had my first two 10% orders filled. Two more remain lower at 73K and 70K, each representing another 10% of my current spot balance.
If we get another leg down, I'll be adding more. If these orders never fill, I'm already positioned for the move higher.
The goal remains the same: accumulate during periods of fear and hold for significantly higher prices in 2027ā2028.
Don't overcomplicate it.
Bid the dips. š
$BTC
Stink bids are set...
If price revisits this area, I'm prepared to add significantly more to my spot bags. I'm not going to miss what I believe could be one of the best buying opportunities of this cycle.
If price doesn't move lower, I'm already extremely well positioned for higher prices. I don't mind these bids getting front-run, but this is most definitely not the time to be bearish.
If you're still underpositioned, buying here and around these areas is where you should be looking to accumulate.
Buy the fear. š
