20+ years in the market. Educated through mistakes. Markets, data, and history. Not financial advice.
Canada
Joined February 2022
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The S&P 500 bull market turns four today. Up 118% from the October 2022 low.
Every bull market that made it to four kept going.
The catch: in four of six cases, the bear market that followed took the index back below the birthday level.
$SPX
Asked about the AI bubble, Nadella won't call it.
Build phase, then diffusion phase. Cycles, not a straight line.
His metric: AI tokens per capita in 5 to 10 years. Up by a gargantuan amount.
Diffusion is the whole game now.
$MSFT
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Nadella's line on superintelligence: it has to empower humans and stay in human control.
If not, he says, it should be rejected by definition.
Software engineering changed completely and still got more important.
$MSFT
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Nadella on where AI actually moves the needle next: in-silico science.
Saint-Gobain used Azure discovery on cement additives. Cement is tied to ~7% of global CO2.
New drugs and new materials, not just chatbots.
$MSFT
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Abby Winnifred Rae retweeted
100GW in space is roughly equal to 800GW on Earth.
Moreover, solar on Earth must be paired with massive batteries to continue powering compute at night and supplemented with combustion or nuclear power during winter.
These are not the same at all.
Yesterday's CPI, ranked by damage:
2-year yield +19bps, biggest jump since April 2025
$NVDA -5.5%, down ~10% in two days
Nasdaq -0.74%
S&P 500 -0.38%
Core came in 0.3%, exactly the line Waller drew for a 50-point December hike.
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Schumer is an old dusty cunt $msos
REPORTER: “Senator Sanders just held a press conference where he said he cannot support you for leader. Senator Slotkin was with him…how do you respond to that?”
SCHUMER: “I’m confident I will be elected Majority Leader, and our caucus is really united…”
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Okay Nvidia $NVDA, you got me to bite. Forward PE as low as 11x, rolling forward PE of 17x and dropping. Not advice, and as always, every time I dip my toes it's lava.
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Brent crude fell 21% in ten days, below $90 for the first time since August. The market priced a peace deal that does not exist yet. New on Priced In: abby190713.substack.com/p/oi…
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Dan Niles started buying $NVDA into the probe selloff.
12x forward earnings. And his Jobs point: Apple rose 25% in 2011, the year its founder took his final leave and died.
The bet is not that Jensen is safe. It is that the price already assumes the worst.
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Abby Winnifred Rae retweeted
BREAKING: Texas Democrats filed two bills to legalize recreational marijuana for everyone 21 and older, allowing possession of up to two ounces, home cultivation of 12 plants, and licensed retail sales.
10x 👀 🚀 $SPCX
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