LongYield

Massie 2028!

Anthropic just filed to go public. Revenue: $16.3 billion. Net loss: $80.7 billion. But here's the twist: $72.4 billion of that loss came from a non-cash accounting adjustment. The real story isn't the loss. It's the $265.6 billion in compute commitments. We unpacked the S-1. substacktools.com/sharex/vOI…

The most valuable seat in an AI data center might belong to whoever designs its power system. Vertiv’s proposed UIG acquisition is a bet that owning the blueprint helps sell everything downstream. Is $VRT building an AI-power platform? substacktools.com/sharex/r-c…

$SNOW Most AI news is a logo on a slide. Snowflake is different: it only books product revenue when workloads actually run. That makes its acceleration a meter, not a press release. substacktools.com/sharex/mCX…

Most luxury companies ask: “How do we sell more?” Hermès asks: “How little can we sell without weakening scarcity?” That difference explains a 41% operating margin, years-long demand for its best products, and extraordinary pricing power. But at ~36x earnings, investors are already paying heavily for that certainty. New LongYield deep dive: How Many More Hermès Customers Can the World Create? substacktools.com/sharex/ycY…

Here is the scary part about Palantir's valuation: The bear case does NOT require Palantir to fail. It could grow revenue ~38% annually through 2030, reach $30B in sales, generate $12B of FCF... ...and our model still gets roughly $67/share. That is the problem with stocks priced for near perfection. A great company can produce great results and still be a bad investment if the starting valuation already assumes something even better. We reversed Palantir's DCF to calculate exactly what the current ~$420B valuation requires. The answer is extraordinary. $PLTR substacktools.com/sharex/9CJ…

$ACHR just stopped being only an air taxi story. Archer plans to acquire Boeing’s Wisk, Insitu and SkyGrid. Boeing gets roughly 20% of Archer. Archer gets defense revenue, autonomy tech and a much broader aerospace platform. But there is still one problem: The FAA has not certified Midnight. My deep dive into what changed, and what didn’t: substacktools.com/sharex/9Jd…

The market may be focusing on the wrong Constellation Software number. Yes, organic growth fell to 3%. But FCFA2S rose 57%. And CSU has already completed or committed to roughly $2.5B of 2026 acquisitions. The key question: Can it still earn historical returns while deploying billions every year? New LongYield deep dive: substacktools.com/sharex/4wl…

$SMCI just guided to as much as $72 BILLION in FY27 revenue. But that is not the number investors should be obsessing over. Revenue missed. Margins exploded to 17.5%. Management is already guiding them back down. And the audit is still unfinished. I broke down what actually matters in Super Micro’s earnings 👇 substacktools.com/sharex/OWG…

$ASTS revenue tripled. Backlog hit ~$1.3B. Cash is now >$3.8B pro forma. But none of those is the number that matters most. 12 BlueBirds are in orbit. AST says it needs ~45 for continuous U.S. coverage. That gap is the entire investment case. My Q2 deep dive 👇 substacktools.com/sharex/wBz…

Rocket Lab just posted a record quarter. Revenue: $234M, +62% YoY Backlog: $2.36B, +137% Space Systems: ~81% of revenue Q3 guidance: another record And yet $RKLB fell. Why? Because at a ~$50B valuation, investors are not really betting on today’s Rocket Lab. They are betting on Neutron. And that launch window is getting tighter. My full $RKLB earnings teardown 👇 substacktools.com/sharex/h7G…

Western Digital is no longer just a cyclical hard drive company. Cloud now represents 89% of revenue, margins have surged above 54%, and AI data growth is transforming the economics of storage. But after a massive stock rally, investors may already be paying for years of perfect execution. Is $WDC still attractive? My latest deep dive: substacktools.com/sharex/o1j…

MercadoLibre just delivered its first $10 billion quarter. Revenue: +50% Operating profit: -17% The market called it a spending problem. But 86% of the margin compression came from cost of revenue, not operating expenses. That distinction could decide what $MELI earns in 2027. Full teardown: substacktools.com/sharex/DI5…

$OPEN Opendoor just posted its best unit economics in years. $22,000 of contribution profit per home, up from only $4,000 two quarters ago. Management says that running these numbers forward produces profitability. We ran the math. The turnaround is real. The profit is far less certain. Read the full analysis: substacktools.com/sharex/3GH…

Chipotle’s quarter looked strong. It was not as strong as the headline suggested. Revenue rose 9.3%, but operating income fell. Net income declined. EPS stayed flat because the share count dropped 5.3%. The business is recovering faster than the earnings model. Full deep dive: substacktools.com/sharex/h8g…

Palantir’s Rule of 40 score was not 40. It was 155%. Revenue grew 93%. U.S. commercial revenue grew 149%. Adjusted operating margin reached 62%. This may have been the strongest large-cap software quarter in years. But is it already priced in? $PLTR substacktools.com/sharex/0M5…

The Magnificent Seven will not look the same in 2035. Our base case: • Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon remain • TSMC and Broadcom get promoted • Tesla gets relegated • Apple becomes increasingly vulnerable The New Magnificent Seven: substacktools.com/sharex/FT8…

Reddit just reported one of the strongest quarters in the internet sector. Revenue: +61% Adjusted EBITDA margin: 43% Free cash flow margin: 32% The stock still fell more than 20%. The problem is not Reddit’s business. It is Google changing how the internet distributes attention. Full analysis: substacktools.com/sharex/lzh…

Apple just reported one of the strongest quarters in its history. Revenue: $109.4B iPhone growth: 22% Mac growth: 29% EPS growth: 29% But the real story is not the earnings beat. AI is increasing demand for Apple devices while simultaneously creating chip shortages, higher memory costs, and record R&D spending. Apple may have entered its most profitable growth cycle yet. It may also have entered its most expensive one. My full analysis: substacktools.com/sharex/fyt…

Four hyperscalers are preparing to spend roughly $730 billion this year. The surprising part? Cloud growth is accelerating, not slowing: • AWS: +36.8% • Azure: +43% • Google Cloud: +82% The AI bottleneck is no longer demand. It is power, chips, packaging, and how quickly data centers can be built. But with capex consuming an estimated 92% of operating cash flow, the bill is arriving fast. The Supercycle Test: substacktools.com/sharex/T3s…