Interests: Data. Python. Economics. Social Policy. Politics. Australia. Caveats: Not financial advice. Opinions my own. RT/Likes ≠ endorsement.
Canberra, Australia
Joined March 2012
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Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
In the recent US midterms, moderates of both parties did substantially and consistently better than extremists.
In Australia, compulsory voting means the returns to moderation, or "centrism", are even stronger. 1/2
theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/1…
Seems excessive ...
Taxpayers fund record 193-member Australian delegation to COP31
news24.com.au/politics/austr… via @News24Aust
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
Post-Keynesians and New Keynesians describe the same fight: workers and firms with competing claims on income. They differ on who should referee it.
I back the central bank. Not because the New Keynesian synthesis is perfect, but because it fits the data, informs policy, and comes with an anchor that works when the mandate lets it.
New Blog Post: Why I lean New Keynesian. markthegraph.blogspot.com/20…
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
Looking at the lending indicators data, even over time there is no way investors are coming back in any significant way into housing unless the tax changes are ammended or removed.
Some people might say that's a good thing, maybe it is but it also has broader repercussions for the housing market.
Why would you invest without CGT discount and NG? Yields are low, tennants can be difficult to deal with and price growth in the future is likely to be less than it has been in the past.
It is also likely to result over time in more competition for rentals (especially if net overseas migration remains high) and fewer new dwellings being built.
Post-Keynesians and New Keynesians describe the same fight: workers and firms with competing claims on income. They differ on who should referee it.
I back the central bank. Not because the New Keynesian synthesis is perfect, but because it fits the data, informs policy, and comes with an anchor that works when the mandate lets it.
New Blog Post: Why I lean New Keynesian. markthegraph.blogspot.com/20…
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
The collapse in Aussie firms' reported forward orders in Oct is a worry but may be at least partly volatility in the data. That said, several industries have reported weakening orders.
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
The forward orders index of the NAB Business Survey looks like it has absolutely fallen off a cliff.
As others have mentioned there may be a data issue, but there are broad based falls nonetheless.
h/t @PeteWargent
Big call from ALbo: Economy won’t go backwards under Labor, PM pledges afr.com/politics/federal/eco…
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
Labor + Greens = 71
One Nation + LNP = 71
Both 5 short of a majority.
It would certainly be an interesting parliamentary term...
ALP continues to slide in the national primary vote polling. The Coalition has held steady on a low 20s since Taylor took over. Thre greens are improving a little (capturing recent ALP dissatisfaction). One Nation is also steady around 26. Others down on last election a touch.
Nationally pollster 2pp just favours the Coalition - but pretty much a 50/50 split. 1/2
Non-market sector productivity: Since 2018, non-market hours have grown about 34 per cent, roughly triple the market sector’s rate. Much of the growth was in aged care, disability support and childcare, driven by the NDIS, an ageing population and government funding.
The ABS measures output largely through cost-weighted counts of services: hospital episodes, school enrolments, aged care residents and care provided. Measured output grew much more slowly than hours. Policy also increased labour inputs per service, for example through aged care staffing mandates.
More hours per unit of measured output means lower measured productivity. Some of that extra labour may improve service quality in ways the statistics fail to capture.
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
The ALP in government implemented the tax policies that saw them getting slaughtered at the 2019 election.
They took the electorate for mugs and now are paying the price.
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
New blog post: There is no painless way to fight inflation
My response to Paul Bongiorno in today's Saturday Paper.
markthegraph.blogspot.com/20…
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
This week's Macro Digest. Risk-off in AI, not across the board: the blue wave took the war premium out of oil and put a political discount on data centres, while central banks kept tightening into the selloff stephenkirchner.substack.com…
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
Support for the Coalition has surged to its highest level in almost a year while Labor’s vote has fallen to a record low. afr.com/politics/federal/blo…
