Michael

"The world is going to be more digital tomorrow, than it is today" @RaoulGMI Every generation has companies that represent the prevailing technologies / network effects at the time. There's typically a 20-30 year time lag between when these cohorts are born and when these companies become some of the most valuable companies in the world. The internet has sped this up to about ~15-20 years (Tiktok as an example) For Baby Boomers & Gen X, this was IBM, GE, Ford and McDonalds, Microsoft, Intel, AT&T (Enterprise tech, mass consumerism, personal computing etc) - ~25-30 year lag vs when boomers + gen x were born For Milennials, this was Apple, Google, Meta, Netflix -merge of hardware (e.g smartphones), software (e.g app store) and the internet - ~20-25 year lag What is this going to be for Gen Z and Gen Alpha? Mobile/technology-first, creator economy, decentralisation, AI-native etc. My working hypothesis is the likes of Coinbase, Tesla, Robinhood will be some of the most dominant / valuable companies in the world within the next 10-20 years. Crypto will form the backbone / infrastructure of this system (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana as the rails etc). This will only seek to accelerate because of network adoption / effects and the speed at which the internet can scale products and platforms. This projects out to early ~2030s for this to fully play out. Very few people realise this, but we're still so so early. Greatest macro opportunity of our lifetime

Can't lie to you man...this market has been so resilent, given everything that's been thrown at it this year. Pretty incredible tbh.

I don't care. This is true. if you're a young guy, get yourself in the gym. Fix your face. Be as hot as possible. Those who know, know🫡

Truth. This has always been and will always be the case. Few also understand that capitalism is one big allocating system. A lot of people get “allocated” long before they realise they’re being “allocated”. The best time to wake up was when you started your career. The second best time is now

The framing of US foreign policy, by most people, on here is all wrong imo. The president, in this case Trump, should be viewed as a temporary operator in a permanent system. This idea that this is “Trumps war” fundamentally under appreciates the different components parts and players that underpin the structure of the system and therefore who is actually making the “decisions”. I obviously don’t know, but I don’t think Trump is a war monger. In fact, I don’t actually think he cares. His no.1 MO is to grift for the Trump brand. He wants to do his 2 years and just sail into the sunset, whilst screwing people over while doing it. Thats my opinion, not a fact. Anyway, start with the framing that the US’s no.1 objective is to maintain the hegemony it established post WWII. How does it do that? Through establishing dominance in Money, Energy and Technology. There are different institutions & organised groups that touch upon each of these and at times will have conflicting or aligned interests e.g CENTCOM, FED, Wall Street, even Hollywood from a cultural perspective lol etc. Also, depending on the context different groups have more say than the other(s). When you begin to piece together these different component parts, you stop framing things within the confines of the current admin but start looking at things end to end at a systems level. COVID fundamentally accelerated everything and for far too long the US had been asleep at the wheel / complacent. Everything in this life is a function of sequencing and timing. I think we’re about to move into an extremely volatile period going into year end and quite frankly over the next couple of years.

This. In '27 people should really begin to focus on how they can apply AI to their daily workflows, both on a personal level and at work. Phase 1 was the buildout. Phase 2 will be the application of the technology, as token efficiency / costs come down over time. I delivered a workshop today at quite a large enterprise in the UK (the 3rd one i've done at this place) ~70 people, a lot of people still don't even know how to build basic workflow agents in Co-pilot studios or Gemini. As i've said countless times, the next 12-18 month, in enterprises, is going to be about process redesign, but from first principles. And why? Because a) there is now pressure (at the CFO level) to begin demonstrating value from all that AI spend, that goes beyond using AI just to summarise emails and b) cost optimisation is the no.1 thing that is front and center of most CEOs minds at the moment. Why? For a multitude of reasons, but to name a few... Rates are bidding, consumers on the lower K are being squeezed as a result of the cost of living. AI will most certainly be used as a lever (for real this time) to address costs at an enterprise level. All of these things are interconnected. The number 1 question anyone should be asking themselves is what is the system currently trying to optimise for? and how does this flow / affect the decisions of different players in the system? Everything flows downstream of this. I've been bigging this guy up for the last year now because it is genuinely excellent framing for how you should approach life genuinely but Incentives + Constraints = Outcomes @awettermann (he must be getting sick of me) 🫡

God help us seriously man looool "We're beta testing in San Francisco" 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

Having an understanding of the price of money aka Interest Rates, will save you a lot of pain in your life. Everything is in some way connected to this. To the balance sheet of the company that you work for to the price you pay for everyday goods and services. One person's asset, is another person's liability. Liabilities can either be serviced by generating income or taking on/refinancing with further liabilities. This dynamic operates at every level of the economy from individuals, companies and sovereign states. A very good read on this is Edward Chancellor - The Price of Time.

Read the job description of this: morganstanley.eightfold.ai/c… Assuming the world doesn't plunge into a recession next year, we're going to see A LOT more of this. Position accordingly. Infrastructure (Phase 1) > application (Phase 2)

BTC boys have been bullposting for the past year (since '25 Sept top). Curve fitting any data point to suit their narrative. The definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results.

Scarcity or abundance from the top flows through the system. What we're seeing with the riots across Europe is a function of decades of systemic decisions from unelected / elected leaders both in the private and public sector, driven by scarcity and the hoarding of capital. If Iran escalates, there is a major risk this is going to be 10x what it is now. You take it for granted till it's something you no choice but to notice, but Energy is at the heart of any functioning system, whether it'd be in biological ecosystems whereby the sun provides energy for photosysnthesis to occur in plants or whether it be in human systems where oil provides the energy for the means of production i.e transport, factories etc. Understand what the system is trying to optimise for, break it into it's component parts, the structures and players, what their incentives are, what their contraints are. All of this is a function of sequencing, duration and timing. And it genuinely super complex. If this materialises, the AI Capex trade becomes mega vulnerable (i think it is already tbh), bonds take a leg lower and we're all going to feel this in our mortgages, energy costs, food etc. Most crisis that we've had in the last 20 years have been largely focused on the Bits side...money printing addresses that. COVID and potentially what's about to take place is Iran is on the Atoms side. You cannot print food.

Any ground invasion of Iran… long XLE outright, long XLP/XLY (pair trade). This scenario probably accelerates the unwind of the AI capex trade e.g SMH. Personally think the SMH short trade is one of the best asymmetric trades out there atm, but I think it happens in the absence of a ground invasion of Iran. Latter is a rotational scenario vs a full scale deleveraging event (which is what the former is)

Who would have known? With technology you can do more with less. Capital has been increasing its share of income vs labor since the 1980s. Where is most capital concentrated? Currently it’s in the technology sector. I’m not entirely sure what the FT is trying to show / prove here. Just unnecessary fear monger if and lazy analysis. If we start seeing ex tech decoupling, but yes we’re going to have a massive problem. Think we’re ways off that though

Went to a gig last night. DJs were top tier. Passion beats hard work every single time. You can work hard in the absence of passion, but it almost always eventually catches up with you. Sometimes you’re so passionate about something, you forget you’re actually also doing the hard work. Someone who is passionate, but also disciplined 🔥

There's some instiutional grade research on substack, but for a fraction of the price. Amazing stuff

😉

Interesting divergence between SMH and JEDG (Space Innovators ETf). Both were highly correlated on the way up, arguably benefiting from the same liquidity conditions (JPY carry trade, Debt issuance etc) and expectations around technological infrastructure investment, but they’ve since decoupled. My concern with SMH is the growing mismatch between the rate of capital being deployed into AI infrastructure and the rate at which the real economy can absorb it productively. For example, If AI ARR growth decelerates from here, as I suspect, and given what I’m seeing in enterprise deployments, questions around the returns on hyperscaler capex become increasingly difficult to ignore. Often time i see people who have never worked in a day in enterprise, latching onto every word Dwarkesh, Leopold etc say coming up with these lofty targets on how AI can just be bulldozed through an org. The pop in Oracle on 2030 FCF eventually gets sold off by the end of next week imo Two things can be true at once. The technology is advancing exponentially. Enterprise adoption, operating model transformation and economic value capture aren’t. This is not to say this WON'T happen over time, because it WILL. But not in the aggressive timelines being touted. See all the data points by Mckinsey, US Census etc. Yes, these are only as good as their sample size, but this is also lived / ancedotal experience too AI can be transformative over the long term while the infrastructure investment cycle experiences a significant repricing along the way and this is kinda what i feel is happening with SMH atm. I just have a nagging feeling that aligator jaw is going to close but on the SMH side... History is always an analogue.

😉 Everything in this life is about sequencing. They're going to jawbone this into the outputs of LLMs somehow. Again, the constraint is trust and regulation

😉 xitter.twitterapi.xyz/MikeMacroM/status/2082…

👇 this should be your framing for the next few years. As compute continues to get commoditised, the cost to build, deploy and serve applications will continue to decrease. We’re in the very early innings of everything now converging around the application layer. The latest Chief AI Officer appoints at banks (Barclays, HSBC etc) are largely all operators who also understand the e2e workflow vs deep technical expertise ie Data Scientists. Sequencing. More to follow with these companies… you’re going to see strategy refreshes > Build teams > teams Executing at scale - you’re also going to see hiring over the next 12 months converge around delivering the application layer (process redesigners, compliance, programme managers etc). What a time to be alive