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Settlement risk on prediction markets, measured.
1 Jan to 2 Oct 2026: 3,005 disputes on 2,666 Polymarket markets. Of 2,543 settled disputed markets, 853 (33.5%) settled differently from the disputed proposal.
Signed, verifiable records. Free API: predge.io
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Predge is partnering with @novicorpus, a fellow Arc accelerator team.
Novi gives an AI agent a legal body and a public record. Predge checks what the agent delivers and signs a verdict.
Who answers for an agent, and whether its work passed.
30-day pilot on Arc testnet.
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For an agent's settlement logic:
- a proposal is a claim, not a result
- a dispute in seconds tells you someone is watching, not who is right
- a finished vote is not always a settled market
- read the chain: almost 5 days after the reset, the venue API still said "disputed"
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Predge signed a record of this market while the vote was open and again after the reset. Both pass our verifier.
Issue, tx hashes, files: data.predge.io/dispute-of-th…
Check a record: data.predge.io/verify
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/verify now returns valid: false, reason key_revoked, for anything signed with the old key, even records signed weeks ago.
Harsh, but it is the honest answer. Whoever holds a leaked key can sign a record with any date on it, so the date inside the signature proves nothing.
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Lesson: if your signatures verify offline, verifiers cache your key for a long time. Design the revocation path before you need it:
- a status per key: active, retired, revoked
- a reason and a date
- verifiers that re-read the key list
- an anchor outside your infra
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Want to test a verifier against a live signed record and the rotated key? Free pilot key, one step:
predge.io/start
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Our host, Railway, emailed customers at 01:03 UTC on 22 Oct: an unauthorized party may have accessed customer env vars, some in decrypted form.
Our product is signed records. Our signing key lived in an env var, so we treated it as compromised. Here is what we did:
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Same day:
- new ed25519 attestation key, kid 3b6551a6439b9bda
- old key 13fa3d18a369e6c7 stays in our key list, marked revoked, with a reason
- partners told by email which kid to pin
Key list: api.predge.io/.well-known/pr…
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What an agent's settlement logic should take from this:
- a price near 0.97 or 0.9995 is a price, not a resolution
- after a second dispute, plan for days
- do not spend collateral that is still in a vote
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Predge signed a record of this dispute while the vote was open and again after it resolved. Both snapshots pass our verifier.
Full issue, tx hashes and files: data.predge.io/dispute-of-th…
Check a record: data.predge.io/verify
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