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Herman Trading

@RHerman

NQ, ES & Gold futures | Probability over opinion | ICT + backtests | TradingView indicators | https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/pruz2NQ6Tu | https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/7xIEUoPhSw

 Portsmouth, United Kingdom
hermantrading.pro
Joined December 2017
  • Tweets20.8K
  • Following234
  • Followers13.9K
2.7KMedia
Photo by Herman Trading (@RHerman)Photo by Herman Trading (@RHerman)Photo by Herman Trading (@RHerman)Photo by Herman Trading (@RHerman)Photo by Herman Trading (@RHerman)Photo by Herman Trading (@RHerman)Photo by Herman Trading (@RHerman)Photo by Herman Trading (@RHerman)Photo by Herman Trading (@RHerman)Photo by Herman Trading (@RHerman)
London session. 62% probability for the short side. I took shorts only. +2R on the day. This is the full model. 1. Intelligent Balance Probability Map at 2 AM NY: 62% short, 38% long 2. Bias set: shorts and shorts only 3. Wait for a sweep reversal with confirmation 4. Short #1: too early, too aggressive. -1R 5. Short #2: small but valid confirmed sweep reversal. Entry 6. TP toward the more probable side. Level reached: +3R Basic ICT idea, done with numbers: trade toward the more probable side, and only with confirmation. Full walkthrough in the video. After the first short stopped out, would you have taken the second one?
Herman Trading educational graphic showing a 62% short directional bias on NQ during the London session. An original TradingView replay screenshot accompanies the message that probability selects the trading side while confirmation determines the entry.

ALT Herman Trading educational graphic showing a 62% short directional bias on NQ during the London session. An original TradingView replay screenshot accompanies the message that probability selects the trading side while confirmation determines the entry.

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19 green days at +$200: +$3,800. 1 red day at -$4,000. Net: -$200. 95% green days. Losing month. One day without a stop can erase a month of discipline. Do you have a hard daily loss limit?
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𝟭𝟱𝗺, 𝟭𝗛 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝟰𝗛 𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝟭-𝗺𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗡𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀. HTF Fractal Bars [Herman]: → 3 independent higher timeframes, 15m, 1H and 4H by default → each one customisable, on or off → HTF candles drawn as clean OHLC bars, green bullish, red bearish → C1, C2, C3 structure → HTF highs, lows and opens in context No predictions. No probabilities. No black box. Just raw higher-timeframe structure next to price. Inspired by Ben's work on OHLC and OLHC candle structure (@Bentrades_ttfm). Free and open source. Link below. Which higher timeframe do you read first: 15m, 1H or 4H?
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Default 15m, 1H and 4H, drawn next to NQ on the 1 minute chart.
Herman's TradingView screenshot of the HTF Fractal Bars [Herman] open-source script page. NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures on the 1 minute on the left; to the right the indicator draws higher-timeframe candles as OHLC bars for HTF1 15m, HTF2 1h and HTF3 4h, red for bearish and green for bullish, with C1, C2 and C3 labels. A table bottom right shows fractal agreement, bias, alignment and the HTF phase of each timeframe. Price axis on the right. Free multi-timeframe candle structure indicator.

ALT Herman's TradingView screenshot of the HTF Fractal Bars [Herman] open-source script page. NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures on the 1 minute on the left; to the right the indicator draws higher-timeframe candles as OHLC bars for HTF1 15m, HTF2 1h and HTF3 4h, red for bearish and green for bullish, with C1, C2 and C3 labels. A table bottom right shows fractal agreement, bias, alignment and the HTF phase of each timeframe. Price axis on the right. Free multi-timeframe candle structure indicator.

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HTF Fractal Bars [Herman] on TradingView: tradingview.com/script/Z8uVy…
HTF Fractal Bars [Herman] — Indicator by helmans13

HTF Fractal Bars [Herman] — Indicator by helmans13

HTF Fractal Bars shows up to three higher-timeframe (HTF) OHLC bar panels to the right of price, built directly from the chart's own bars. It adds a Fractal Agreement engine that classifies what each...

tradingview.com
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Gold at 02:00: one check, and London took the Asia high first on 95 of 103 days

Gold at 02:00: one check, and London took the Asia high first on 95 of 103 days

Article · @RHerman
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Yesterday's high stayed untouched on 85.4% of 82 NQ days. Three checks, all known at 08:00 New York time: 1. The 08:00 overnight filter is on (overnight session 18:00-07:59 ET) 2. The Daily Open (18:00 ET) is right next to the previous close 3. The 08:00 open is inside the previous week's range The question: does New York stay below the previous day's high after 08:00? 2022-2026: 85.4% of 82 days Expected from the distance alone: 75.3% 2015-2021: 80.6% of 108 days It shows up about 1.4 days a month. A frequency, not a trade signal. No entries, stops or costs modelled. Do you take yesterday's high off the target list on days like this? Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, NQ Daily Study (nq-daily-study), 2015-2026
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Expected from the distance alone: 75.3%. 2015-2021: 80.6% of 108 days.
Light Herman Trading graphic in 4:5 with deep gold accents. Label: Previous day high not taken after 08:00. Headline: Yesterday's high, then in gold: untouched 85.4%. A white glass card lists three numbered checks at 08:00 ET: 1, overnight filter at 08:00; 2, Daily Open next to the previous close; 3, open inside the previous week's range. Two bars follow: this setup 2022-2026 (82 days) 85.4% in gold, expected from distance alone 75.3%. Footer: NQ Daily Study, 2015-2026. Herman Trading wordmark top left, NQ at 08:00 tag top right, www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. A backtest of NQ futures showing when the previous day high tends to stay untouched in the New York session.

ALT Light Herman Trading graphic in 4:5 with deep gold accents. Label: Previous day high not taken after 08:00. Headline: Yesterday's high, then in gold: untouched 85.4%. A white glass card lists three numbered checks at 08:00 ET: 1, overnight filter at 08:00; 2, Daily Open next to the previous close; 3, open inside the previous week's range. Two bars follow: this setup 2022-2026 (82 days) 85.4% in gold, expected from distance alone 75.3%. Footer: NQ Daily Study, 2015-2026. Herman Trading wordmark top left, NQ at 08:00 tag top right, www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. A backtest of NQ futures showing when the previous day high tends to stay untouched in the New York session.

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Hey @grok Scalping or swing trading: which one makes more traders profitable?
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𝟭𝟭.𝟭𝗸 𝗚𝗶𝘁𝗛𝘂𝗯 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗱𝗲. 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗼𝘂𝘁, 𝗗𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁, 𝗛𝗲𝗶𝗸𝗶𝗻-𝗔𝘀𝗵𝗶, 𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗿 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲. je-suis-tm/quant-trading: Python, around since 2018, and it ships strategy code with backtests instead of theory: → London Breakout → Dual Thrust → Bollinger Bands and RSI pattern recognition → MACD, Parabolic SAR, Awesome Oscillator, Heikin-Ashi → Pair trading, Monte Carlo, portfolio optimisation → Options straddle and a VIX calculator Apache-2.0 licence, 1.9k forks. It had 10.7k stars when I first shared it in September. I haven't tested these on futures yet. Which one should I backtest on NQ first? github.com/je-suis-tm/quant-…
GitHub - je-suis-tm/quant-trading: Python quantitative trading strategies including VIX Calculator,...

GitHub - je-suis-tm/quant-trading: Python quantitative trading strategies including VIX Calculator,...

Python quantitative trading strategies including VIX Calculator, Pattern Recognition, Commodity Trading Advisor, Monte Carlo, Options Straddle, Shooting Star, London Breakout, Heikin-Ashi, Pair Tra...

github.com
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The win rate you need to break even. It drops fast as your R:R grows. 1:1 → 50% 1:1.5 → 40% 1:2 → 33.3% 1:3 → 25% 1:4 → 20% 1:5 → 16.7% Before costs. Fees and slippage push every line up a little. Which line of the chart do you trade?
Herman Trading card styled as an optician's eye test chart, with lines getting smaller from top to bottom. Headline: Read the line for your R:R. The lines read: 1:1 = 50%, 1:1.5 = 40%, 1:2 = 33.3%, 1:3 = 25%, 1:4 = 20%, 1:5 = 16.7%. Caption: win rate needed to break even, before costs. A reference for breakeven win rate at each risk to reward ratio.

ALT Herman Trading card styled as an optician's eye test chart, with lines getting smaller from top to bottom. Headline: Read the line for your R:R. The lines read: 1:1 = 50%, 1:1.5 = 40%, 1:2 = 33.3%, 1:3 = 25%, 1:4 = 20%, 1:5 = 16.7%. Caption: win rate needed to break even, before costs. A reference for breakeven win rate at each risk to reward ratio.

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17 of 17 days in 2023. One 08:00 NQ check saw the overnight high taken every time. The check, at 08:00 New York time: 1. The 08:00 overnight filter is on (overnight session 18:00-07:59 ET) 2. The Asia range is wide, more than 1.3x its median of the previous 24 sessions Then: does New York trade above the overnight high after 08:00? 2022-2026: 93.0% of 86 days, against 81.0% expected from the distance alone. Every year from 2015 to 2026 came in above its expected rate. The weakest was 2020: 76.5% of 17 days, against 74.8% expected. One year at 17 of 17 proves little on its own. 12 of 12 years above the expected rate says more. Do you run an overnight check before the 08:00 New York start? Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, NQ Daily Study (nq-daily-study), 2015-2026
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2022-2026: 93.0% of 86 days, against 81.0% expected.
White editorial Herman Trading graphic in 4:5 with orange accents. An orange pill reads NQ 08:00 check, the HERMAN TRADING wordmark sits top right. Huge black headline: 17 of 17 with an orange full stop. Below: Days in 2023 when NQ took the overnight high after the 08:00 overnight filter and a wide Asia range. A white card shows a bar per year from 2015 to 2026 with its rate, each above a dashed line for the rate expected from distance: 85.7, 88.9, 87.5, 83.3, 87.5, 76.5, 95.2, 91.7, then 2023 in orange as 17/17, then 92.3, 89.5, 91.7. An orange-tinted banner reads 12 / 12 years above the expected rate, 93.0% of 86 days in 2022-2026. www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. A yearly breakdown of an NQ futures backtest at the New York 08:00 start.

ALT White editorial Herman Trading graphic in 4:5 with orange accents. An orange pill reads NQ 08:00 check, the HERMAN TRADING wordmark sits top right. Huge black headline: 17 of 17 with an orange full stop. Below: Days in 2023 when NQ took the overnight high after the 08:00 overnight filter and a wide Asia range. A white card shows a bar per year from 2015 to 2026 with its rate, each above a dashed line for the rate expected from distance: 85.7, 88.9, 87.5, 83.3, 87.5, 76.5, 95.2, 91.7, then 2023 in orange as 17/17, then 92.3, 89.5, 91.7. An orange-tinted banner reads 12 / 12 years above the expected rate, 93.0% of 86 days in 2022-2026. www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. A yearly breakdown of an NQ futures backtest at the New York 08:00 start.

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Strategy A wins 70% of trades. Avg win 0.3R, avg loss 1R. Strategy B wins 35%. Avg win 3R, avg loss 1R. A feels amazing and loses 0.09R per trade. B feels awful and makes 0.40R per trade. Stop chasing win rate. Chase expectancy. Which one would you actually stick with?
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𝟲 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗩𝗶𝗲𝘄 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. 𝟴,𝟰𝟭𝟲 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺. Boosts on TradingView today, 28 Oct 2026: Sweep Reversal Map+: 3,527 Minicharts Pro+: 1,983 HTF Liquidity Map: 1,909 HTF Fractal Bars: 388 Tech Leadership Map+: 319 Premium & Discount Map: 290 All built around the things I care about most: structure, liquidity, context and bias. All six are on my TradingView profile. Link below. Which one is on your chart right now?
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Most boosted: Sweep Reversal Map+, at 3,527.
Herman Trading graphic, light, 16:9: "6 FREE TradingView Indicators", "Built for clearer market structure, liquidity and bias." Six tiles with small charts: HTF Fractal Bars (cleaner price structure, higher timeframe clarity), Premium & Discount Map (see value zones, trade with context), Tech Leadership Map+ (spot strength, follow leaders), HTF Liquidity Map (track liquidity before the move), Sweep Reversal Map+ (identify sweeps, catch reversals), Minicharts Pro+ (multiple markets, one view). A pill at the bottom reads "Links in comments" and "Bookmark this post". Free TradingView indicators for NQ futures traders.

ALT Herman Trading graphic, light, 16:9: "6 FREE TradingView Indicators", "Built for clearer market structure, liquidity and bias." Six tiles with small charts: HTF Fractal Bars (cleaner price structure, higher timeframe clarity), Premium & Discount Map (see value zones, trade with context), Tech Leadership Map+ (spot strength, follow leaders), HTF Liquidity Map (track liquidity before the move), Sweep Reversal Map+ (identify sweeps, catch reversals), Minicharts Pro+ (multiple markets, one view). A pill at the bottom reads "Links in comments" and "Bookmark this post". Free TradingView indicators for NQ futures traders.

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All six, free on my TradingView profile: tradingview.com/u/helmans13/
helmans13 — Trading Ideas and Scripts — TradingView

helmans13 — Trading Ideas and Scripts — TradingView

Follow helmans13 on TradingView for unique chart analysis, custom indicators, and market view. Join our global community of traders and investors.

tradingview.com
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By 12:00 the New York high was already in on 53.5% of NQ days.

By 12:00 the New York high was already in on 53.5% of NQ days.

Article · @RHerman
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A wide Asia range makes NQ LESS likely to take the overnight high. 62.9% vs 68.6% on an average day. The question: does New York trade above the overnight high (18:00-07:59 ET) after 08:00? NQ, 2022-2026: → Average day: 68.6% of 643 days → Wide Asia range only: 62.9% of 194 days → 08:00 overnight filter only: 87.9% of 290 days → Both together: 93.0% of 86 days Wide Asia means more than 1.3x its median of the previous 24 sessions. On its own, the wide Asia range lowers the odds. Next to the 08:00 overnight filter, it adds to them: distance alone predicts 81.0% for those 86 days. A filter can change sign once you combine it. Test it alone and together. Do you read a wide Asia session as a reason to fade or to follow? Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, NQ Daily Study (nq-daily-study), 2015-2026
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Both together: 93.0% of 86 days.
Dark Herman Trading graphic in 4:5. Label: Overnight high taken after 08:00. Headline: Wide Asia alone, then in gold: less likely. A dark glass card titled NY trades above the overnight high, 2022-2026, shows four bars: average day (643) 68.6%, wide Asia range only (194) 62.9% in gold, 08:00 overnight filter only (290) 87.9%, both together (86) 93.0%. Footer: wide Asia means over 1.3x its 24-session median, NQ Daily Study. Herman Trading wordmark top left, NQ at 08:00 tag top right, www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. A backtest of NQ futures showing that a wide Asia session on its own lowers the chance of New York taking the overnight high, but raises it when the 08:00 overnight filter is also on.

ALT Dark Herman Trading graphic in 4:5. Label: Overnight high taken after 08:00. Headline: Wide Asia alone, then in gold: less likely. A dark glass card titled NY trades above the overnight high, 2022-2026, shows four bars: average day (643) 68.6%, wide Asia range only (194) 62.9% in gold, 08:00 overnight filter only (290) 87.9%, both together (86) 93.0%. Footer: wide Asia means over 1.3x its 24-session median, NQ Daily Study. Herman Trading wordmark top left, NQ at 08:00 tag top right, www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. A backtest of NQ futures showing that a wide Asia session on its own lowers the chance of New York taking the overnight high, but raises it when the 08:00 overnight filter is also on.

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Hey @grok I have $500. Prop firm challenge or my own account?
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