Relative Value Mike (@RelativalueMike) header
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contrarian macro/micro analyst, professional gambler, mat rat, LA lakers

United States
Joined February 2018
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There’s a hawkish hold posture market would appreciate on the inflation “taming” notion if we see more centrist governors from July’s 9-3 split move over to like a 7-5
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Fed rate hike this week will be an immediate policy mistake - can’t control supply driven inflation with front end rates (Islamic commandos don’t care) and all you end up with is hurting the job market and an already weakened ex-AI economy. Oh and there’s the $40T deficit…
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Frontier labs calling for a moratorium is simply game theory 101: those who foolishly pause their semis & memory orders will cede it to their competition in this race
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Hilarious that none of the mainstream media is picking up on what happens to Iran’s oil wells if they sit in idle capacity for too long. Devastating to global crude supply and the country’s economy for years if they continue down this route
As @POTUS has made clear, the United States Navy will continue the blockade of Iranian ports. In a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in. Constraining Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the regime’s primary revenue lifelines. The @USTreasury will continue to apply maximum pressure through Economic Fury to systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds. Any person or vessel facilitating these flows—through covert trade and finance—risks exposure to U.S. sanctions. We continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran.
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This is a bluff btw he knows Europe does not have the balls or capacity to even attempt this without US assistance
“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you…” - President Donald J. Trump
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US govt/Pentagon never single sources suppliers or vendors for any of its needs btw for this exact reason. When and if Anthropic can’t do the job then someone else will
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Lots of talk recently on tech companies grinding into shitcos when you add back SBC into their free cash flow numbers - $APP stands out in the opposite direction here
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Good place to start is looking at how these groups are funded from the top of the funnel beginning with taxpayer sponsored NGOs and private oligarch backers (check foreign). Too coordinated and well equipped to be grassroots
Replying to @camhigby
As a former Special Forces Warrant Officer with multiple rotations running counterinsurgency ops—both hunting insurgents and trying to separate them from sympathetic populations—I’ve seen organized resistance up close. From Anbar to Helmand, the pattern is familiar: spotters, cutouts, dead drops (or modern equivalents), disciplined comms, role specialization, and a willingness to absorb casualties while bleeding the stronger force slowly. What’s unfolding in Minneapolis right now isn’t “protest.” It’s low-level insurgency infrastructure, built by people who’ve clearly studied the playbook. Signal groups at 1,000-member cap per zone. Dedicated roles: mobile chasers, plate checkers logging vehicle data into shared databases, 24/7 dispatch nodes vectoring assets, SALUTE-style reporting (Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Time, Equipment) on suspected federal vehicles. Daily chat rotations and timed deletions to frustrate forensic recovery. Vetting processes for new joiners. Mutual aid from sympathetic locals (teachers providing cover, possible PD tip-offs on license plate lookups). Home-base coordination points. Rapid escalation from observation to physical obstruction—or worse. This isn’t spontaneous outrage. This is C2 (command and control) with redundancy, OPSEC hygiene, and task organization that would make a SF team sergeant nod in recognition. Replace “ICE agents” with “occupying coalition forces” and the structure maps almost 1:1 to early-stage urban cells we hunted in the mid-2000s. The most sobering part? It’s domestic. Funded, trained (somewhere), and directed by people who live in the same country they’re trying to paralyze law enforcement in. When your own citizens build and operate this level of parallel intelligence and rapid-response network against federal officers—complete with doxxing, vehicle pursuits, and harassment that’s already turned lethal—you’re no longer dealing with civil disobedience. You’re facing a distributed resistance that’s learned the lessons of successful insurgencies: stay below the kinetic threshold most of the time, force over-reaction when possible, maintain popular support through narrative, and never present a single center of gravity. I spent years training partner forces to dismantle exactly this kind of apparatus. Now pieces of it are standing up in American cities, enabled by elements of local government and civil society. That should keep every thinking American awake at night. Not because I want escalation. But because history shows these things don’t de-escalate on their own once the infrastructure exists and the cadre believe they’re winning the information war. We either recognize what we’re actually looking at—or we pretend it’s still just “activism” until the structures harden and spread. Your call, America. But from where I sit, this isn’t January 2026 politics anymore. It’s phase one of something we’ve spent decades trying to keep off our own soil.
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For those doubting AI infra capital raising abilities heading into ‘26 and beyond just remember the dinosaur energy sector raised $2T in ‘24 without batting an eye. TMT equity analysts could learn a lot by talking to people in debt financing
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For those complaining about the missing Oct Nov CPI print data here is Zillow’s more accurate read on rent which is the main driver of inflation basket at this point
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Don’t forget oil spot and futures prices are usually a pretty accurate predictor of how serious Middle East geopolitics are headed
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Shutting down strait of hormuz indirectly gives US more economic bullets to negotiate with China as they face increasing inflationary forces on top of a weakening economic backdrop for the country
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Why is no one asking what the CBO inputs when accounting for impact of tariffs + >4% GDP growth over the next year? It’s literally a blackbox that’s spit out incorrect figures many many times
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No one talking about Japanese 30y yields spiking. 2nd largest bond market and BoJ bal sheet loaded up to the tits already with their own bonds. Low growth, spiking inflation, higher borrowing costs sounds like recipe for disaster
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$AMZN -5% afterhours on street misses (mainly from retail). AWS +40% and Ads +50% y/y are the key drivers for the name going forward
$TWTR -11% for the day. Q3 earnings below street estimates due to large 1x litigation charge. Daily active users grew +13% y/y; Ads ARPU up 25%. Apple IDFA change not impactful to existing tech or biz model & new user monetization models will be built around iOS restrictions
$PAGS continues to dip -10% for the day. Recent acquistion of bank charter provides lower cost of capital for consumer loans and draws SME POS/payments customers to under-penetrated banking accounts market and vice versa. Essentially Square in the US w/ bank charter
$MRCY -16% after street cut on growth outlook. Strong cash play in A&D sector w/ stable teens growth being market leader in modular, open architect signal & intel systems for military & commercial uses. 3x faster R&D to market for primes than current COTS “plug-and-pray” model
$MAXR recovering slightly from session lows -10%. Aftermarket news of updated class action lawsuit from ‘19 led by pension fund was result of ‘18 AMOS-8 contract cancellation from Israeli sat co under old mgmt regime. Investors had many months to digest news and de-risk
$MAXR -14% on the back of no news. Legion satellite constellation still on track for Q3 launch and should be major catalyst going fwd. Considered a leader in space infra and satellite building and imagery
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