Ron Sear (@RonCyr9) header
Ron Sear (@RonCyr9) profile picture

Investor from ‘91-‘07. Trader since 2007. Tweets are a digital journal of my day to day trades. Not financial advice. Educational. Short only SPX trader.

Canada
Joined October 2022
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Do you believe this man will now back the AI trade? No. It’s the Democrats’ economy now. The war remains an arena Trump, Netanyahu and Hegseth can still exploit. Imagine them actually succeeding at last. Trump thinks solely of his legacy. Defeat Iran! Oil up!!
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Something to always worry about.
The IAEA has been informed that power has been restored to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), ending the plant’s 27th loss of off-site power since the beginning of the military conflict. Earlier today, the plant lost the connection to the 330 kilovolt (kV) power line, forcing it to rely on emergency diesel generators.
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$SPX was down -2.68% to close at 7,376.86 for the week. My family accounts were up 6.18% and $SPXU was up 7.56%. A “Weekly Sell Signal” was hit on Thursday. We are right on the long term trend line. Bounce or go much lower? 7,107.73 is the number to watch next week.
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I am now pulling ahead against my benchmark, the S&P 500. This week certainly helped my YTD return. As of the Friday close, family accounts are now up 20.76% vs $SPX at 7.76%. It’s been a frustrating year and it’s beginning to pay off.
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I journal this in my little black book but it takes so long on a Saturday morning. I’m using AI to help me out. I’m just going to use it for weekly conclusions. I warned about the potential of a correction and it happened.
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$SPX was down -4.35% to close at 7,686.38. My family accounts were up 9.39% and $SPXU was up 13.20%. Sell signal remains in place. Daily chart has $SPX in the “Panic Selling Zone” but not at the weekly. Bear market begins at 7,033.18. Long term trendlines are still holding.
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Update: Yields this morning were up and oil was down slightly causing me to conclude that we would have a down day. Bought $SPXU at $35.66 and wishing I held yesterday. Bear market begins at 7,033.18. I warned about this last night about wishful thinking for peace.
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“Peace isn’t the opposite of war—weakness is. Being anti-war will not stop war. Appear weak, and you don’t get peace… you get escalation.” That has clearly occurred. 2027 will be the year of greater war. I’ll write more in the days and weeks to come.
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$SPX was up 1.58% to close at 7,688.87. Family accounts were down -3.34% and $SPXU was down -4.89%. Today’s move may trigger a new “Daily Buy Signal” at 7,697.23 for Thursday. WTD $SPX is up 1.44%, family down -2.57% and $SPXU down -4.27%. The week/war is not over.
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I have purchased $SPXU at $34.29. This is a day trade only. My target price is $34.54 or slightly better if I can get it.
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Sold $SPXU at $34.29. This was an unsuccessful trade and will not hold overnight.
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Stop loss orders are so important for any investor. As a short only trader, it is critical and I have sold $SPXU at the open for $35.02 for a daily loss of -3.34%. A new “Daily Buy Signal” could be triggered at 7,703.72. Look at all the signals since August. Indecisive.
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Today is the first day of “It’s the Democrats economy”. The election result came as I expected and the initial reaction was exactly what I wanted but unfortunately futures are up and stop loss will be triggered at the open. An overwhelming message has been sent.
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$SPX was up 0.37% to close at 7,568.96. Family accounts were down -0.33% and $SPXU was down -0.85%. No change in the “Daily” or “Weekly” Sell Signals. Futures are now down over 1.00%. It is currently doubtful that we can pull out of this downtrend. That number is 7,756.69.
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I have purchased $SPXU at $36.35 moments ago. This will be held as a longer term trade. Stops are in for any surprises. Political or military. So interesting that the market broke on Friday and oil is now down significantly and negotiations are well underway. 300% short $SPX.
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$SPX was down -0.50% to close at 7,541.80. Family accounts were up 1.13% and $SPXU was up 1.50%. Today was significant. First time the drop in Oil didn’t punish me. Had this been July, the market would have gone up 1.50%. Instead the market “Sold Off”.
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I have sold my entire position in $SPXU at $35.75 for a daily gain of +1.13%. Lots of volatility to make money on the short side. I’m only in cash due to the rumour of a possible deal with Iran and the consequences of the price of oil down significantly today. 100% in cash.
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I wasn’t fast enough to get a higher average price. I’m happy with $35.75.
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I have purchased $SPXU at $35.35. This should not be a day trade but a continuation of positioning for lower prices in the S&P 500. We should drop to 7480 as a minimum short term target.
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I have placed a limit order in the $35.75 average range. Should start to get filled.
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Returns as of Oct. 30, 2026. Annual returns: Family up +27.57% vs SPX +12.41%. Monthly returns: Nov +5.57%, Dec +6.25%, Jan +7.03%, Feb -1.55%, Mar +13.03%, Apr -23.47%, May -5.09%, Jun +17.74%, Jul +2.64%, Aug +1.49%, Sep +2.09% & Oct +5.00%. YTD family up +13.74% vs +11.77%.
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Update: we have officially triggered the more serious “Weekly Sell Signal” on $SPX. The number to watch was 7,601.48. If we close below that number, it will be safe to assume that more selling is on the way. Since August, we have not breached the band, only briefly touched it
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I have sold $SPXU at $35.43 for a daily gain of 3.75%. I will be looking for a lower price later in the day to buy back or wait until Monday. Finished the month strong.
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I have never commented on the equal weight S&P 500 Index. But it says a lot. The index peaked in August and has been in a “Weekly Sell Signal” and is calling for 20% downside to June of 2027. How many of you stayed short to Wednesday and covered? Did you give up? Pissed today?
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