Ryan Maue

Major unprecedented climate news for 11/11: the Arctic polar vortex has broken down. The stratospheric warming event (SSW) with a wind reversal has officially happened -- just as we warned for 2-weeks. Now we wait for the next shoe to drop. On your head.

You're going to see this mid-level (500 mb) temperature forecast updated on my feed for the next 90-days --> to keep track of the Polar Vortex -- at least the tropospheric version (not the stratospheric, which I don't understand) Even with El Niño, we'll be discussing the "whole load" of Arctic air dumping into the Eastern U.S. The coldest week is "gentler" and Arctic blasts are less intense, but they don't need to be. I'd qualify this -47°C centroid of the PV over James Bay as the "whole load" but the surface cold pool isn't developed yet -- only late November. Just don't look to the Pacific for any help -- the Western Canada cold pool isn't happening. You'll need the Trans-Siberian Orchestra to bring the cold across the North Pole.

First real taste of winter chill and some frozen precipitation for the Great Lakes and Northeast. Freezes into the Southeast as a strong upper-level trough dips out of Canada courtesy of Greenland this weekend.

Weather models are run 6-weeks into the future with "ensembles" solutions tend to smooth/average out in space and time. You get a "best guess" of the snowfall at every location (the ensemble mean is not a solution). Through Christmas -- I see great things for us all!

-40°C at 500 hPa is vintage / winter cold at mid-levels for the polar vortex. Even -45°C showing up after forming over/near Greenland. So, can this Arctic blast "dump out" or not for Thanksgiving? El Niño heavy lean against but worth watching! Days 5-15 from AIFS-Single