Sam | AI, Money & Power

🚨 Jensen Huang is out at Nvidia. Now one person will sign off on its numbers twice. He resigned today, effective immediately, after reports of an affair with a woman alleged to be a Chinese spy and another with an employee. CFO Colette Kress is now interim CEO, and she keeps her CFO job. 📅 Nvidia reports results on Tuesday, November 17. US rules require both the CEO and the CFO to personally certify each quarterly report. Right now, that's one person. 🏛️ The board also named its first-ever chair, Harvey Jones. In 33 years, Nvidia never had one. Should one person hold both jobs at a company this size, even for a few weeks?

🤔 Is Sam Altman warning us about an AI bubble, or just trying to get cheaper chips? He's one of the biggest buyers of AI chips on the planet. Yet he told Samsung executives that some AI demand has been "double counted," according to Korea's Financial News. His point: strip that out, and almost all the real growth comes from two companies, OpenAI and Anthropic. That matters because 99% of Samsung's latest quarterly profit came from chips. If those two buyers slow down, Samsung is stuck with too many chips, prices fall, and profits go with them. Which one is it?

🚨 Some websites hide secret instructions meant for AI assistants, invisible to you. Grok Bot now warns you when it finds one and refuses to follow it. @grok what could a hidden instruction make an AI do without me noticing?

🇺🇸 You may soon be able to trade Apple or Nvidia at 3 a.m. on a Sunday, like you do with Bitcoin. For now, Apple and Nvidia have said no. OKXICE, a venture of crypto exchange OKX and the NYSE's owner, picked 62 US companies to trade as tokens around the clock. 56 objected, including Tesla and JPMorgan. The 6 that didn't are all crypto-linked, like Robinhood and Coinbase. Why say no? The tokens are created by a middleman, not the company. The company doesn't choose who issues them or where they trade, and at night the token's price can drift from the real stock. Some also fear investors will think they endorsed it. The SEC gave companies 30 days to block such a platform. I'm convinced TradFi is heading toward full tokenization, US stocks included. But for now, is this veto mainly protecting investors, or the companies themselves?

Google just released what it calls its strongest AI. If you already pay $20 a month for Gemini, you still cannot use it in the app. Gemini 4 Carbon is available today only on Google AI Ultra, which starts at $99.99 a month, five times the $19.99 Pro plan. Pro still gets Argon. A Google product lead said models at this level are expensive, and not the kind the company can release widely. OpenAI's top ChatGPT model also sits on plans that start at $100 a month. Anthropic includes its top model, Fable, on its $100 plan. xAI lists its latest Grok models from the $30 plan, not behind a $100 gate. The free and $20 tools keep getting better. But at Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic, the version they call their best is turning into a $100 product. If Grok offers its latest model at $30, how long can the others keep their best one behind $100?

🇺🇸 If you work in tech and your 401(k) is in an S&P 500 index fund, you may be making the same bet twice. According to Goldman Sachs, as reported by Bloomberg, AI infrastructure stocks make up about 40% of the S&P 500. In Europe's Stoxx 600, it's closer to 15%. That difference showed up last week. The S&P 500 had its worst week since April 2025, while the Stoxx 600 finished slightly higher. Goldman also notes that in the eight biggest AI-led selloffs since 2023, European stocks did better every time. Your salary and stock awards already depend on tech doing well. An index fund is supposed to spread your risk. Today, it adds more of the same one. In financial regulation, concentration is one of the first risks we look at. Most people never check it in their own retirement account.

Polymarket asks a different question: what Anthropic will be worth at the close of its first trading day. As of 5 p.m. ET on November 9, with more than $4 million traded, the most likely range was $1.5 to $1.75 trillion. If the IPO is priced at $1.2 trillion, that means about a 57% chance of a first-day gain above 25%.

The rules also differ from one platform to another. US: Kalshi's Nvidia contracts were approved on Nov 3 as security futures, a decision now challenged in court. EU: ESMA says such contracts sold to retail investors are likely CFDs, with leverage limits and risk warnings.

But weekend markets are thin: fewer buyers and sellers, so small orders can move the price a lot. When Kalshi's Nvidia contract reopened Sunday night, a few trades worth $136 in total printed at $150, 20% below Friday's close. Minutes later, the price was back near $177.

Where did that price come from? Weekend trading in Nvidia contracts: Binance (crypto exchange): $246M Hyperliquid (crypto platform): $131M Kalshi (US regulated): $27M On Monday morning, the main platforms showed almost the same price, around $178. The signal was consistent.

Nvidia's board announced an investigation into its CEO on Sunday. Nasdaq was closed. So how did the stock drop nearly 5% before the market even opened? Because Nvidia now trades 24/7 on crypto platforms. And that weekend price was set far from Wall Street. 🧵

🇷🇸 After Paraguay and the disruption in France, Serbia raises the same practical question: can you access your money when you need it? The causes are different. Alta Bank’s case includes an alleged internal fraud: Serbian prosecutors announced three arrests on November 2 over suspected misappropriation involving around 45 billion dinars. The bank lost its licence on October 30. Bankruptcy proceedings opened on November 3. Insured payouts are scheduled to begin on November 13. Eligible deposits are covered up to €50,000 per depositor across all accounts at Alta. Above that, recovery depends on the bankruptcy process. That protection matters. But it doesn’t guarantee uninterrupted access, and your bills still fall due while you wait. If your main bank became unavailable tomorrow, could you cover your essential payments? Sources: Serbian prosecutors (tok.jt.rs/html_tok/saopstenj…), Deposit Insurance Agency (aod.rs/clan/altabanka/pitanj…).

💵 Money gives you more choices and lets you spend less time solving everyday problems. An unexpected bill doesn’t have to mean hours rearranging your budget. A broken appliance doesn’t have to take over your weekend. That may not be happiness. But having fewer problems dictate how you spend your day matters.

If SpaceX and Tesla merge, one company would own the whole AI stack: 💡The brain: Grok 💡The chips: Terafab 💡The data centers: in orbit, a plan for up to 1 million satellites 💡The network: Starlink 💡The bodies: Optimus robots and Cybercab Musk's words: "We are pretty much in the superintelligence singularity." Most companies build a product. This one wants to build the brain, the body and the sky it runs on.

🚨🇵🇾 Paraguay update 2 days after Ueno seizure: Nearly 3M people (~60% of adults) still locked out after the digital bank collapsed on solvency failure. It held ~$800-850M in public/pension funds. President Peña (ex-shareholder) tried to resign — Congress rejected it and is impeaching him. He’s still in office for now. Small payouts (~$1.5-1.7k) have started for eligible savers; full guarantee up to ~$38k follows. Protests continue, the situation is not pretty in the streets... Biggest banking/political shock in years, it makes me rethink how important is cash sometimes.

🇺🇸 The CFTC just approved the first perpetual contracts on US stocks. The same day, Cboe and Citadel Securities sued to block them. Why? They are saying that these products belong to the SEC, not the CFTC. But they may also fear new competition from Hyperliquid x Kraken and Trade .xyz x ICE. Real legal issue, or just protecting their business?

🇺🇸 Anthropic just filed its updated IPO papers. In one quarter: $17 billion of revenue and a $23.29 billion loss. Here is what the filing shows: 1. Q3 revenue was about $17 billion, up about 1,127% from a year earlier. 2. Growth from the previous quarter slowed to about 47%, from 144% in Q2. 3. The net loss was $23.29 billion for the quarter and $104 billion over nine months, mostly accounting charges on convertible notes and derivatives, not cash. 4. It has about $895.4 billion of purchase commitments and leases, almost all for compute and infrastructure. That $895 billion is about 27 times its revenue so far this year, and it belongs on page one for anyone buying the stock. Would you buy Anthropic at the IPO, yes or no?

Fine print #2: concentration. The Magnificent 7 are now 33.4% of the S&P 500. One third of the index rides on seven companies. The twist: they made only 32.9% of this year's +12.7% gain, and earnings grew 30.7%. So far, the rally is broad and backed by profits.

Fine print #1: price. Shiller CAPE is 40.7 (Oct 2026). The highest midterm October before this was 33.8, in 1998. We are walking into the "buy signal" holding the priciest midterm ticket on record.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every single midterm October. 19 for 19. Average gain: +18%. Pollsters would kill for that track record. 🧵