Sam Freedman

New post from @LawDavF Trump and Netanyahu are both in trouble after their respective elections. What does that mean for the future of US-Israeli relations, the war in Iran and the wider Middle East? samf.substack.com/p/after-th…

There's been a lot of attention on Abdul El-Sayed and Israel. But wherever you look amongst the potential Democrat nominees there is little support for continuing with a failed approach.

New post: Probably the most important political trend of the year has been Farage's growing unpopularity, which has dropped Reform to third place in the polls. How did it all go so wrong for him? Is he now the main block on the radical right in the UK? samf.substack.com/p/the-fall…

Think this was my favourite stat in the piece...

Also on the substack this week we had John Kingman and Baroness Shriti Vadera writing about Britain's biggest growth opportunity - the Oxford-Cambridge Arc. And how it can pay for itself. (This one is free to read) samf.substack.com/p/the-lost…

After the midterms.... My post on the mess the Republicans are in, their coming civil war, and why Vance is in trouble. And on what the Democrats have to do to take an extraordinary opportunity and win a filibuster-proof trifecta in 2028. samf.substack.com/p/the-comi…

I did a big profile of Stephen Miller earlier this year. Called it "The Most Dangerous Man in America". This is going to go badly. samf.substack.com/p/the-most…

A midterms loss doesn't always indicate a party is about to lose the presidency but when it's this bad, it probably does. Especially given the mess the Republicans are in.

New post: After their midterms disaster the Republicans are in deep trouble - tied to a decrepit, vengeful narcissist with no loyalty to the party. It could rip them apart. Meanwhile, the Dems have an incredible opportunity. Can they hold it together? samf.substack.com/p/the-comi…

Here's one I prepared earlier... Last month's post on what the Democrats could do with control of Congress. samf.substack.com/p/what-hap…

The plan as it was in 2017 and as it is now. From 1 million homes and 1.1 million jobs to a much smaller development around Cambridge.

I've now updated this post with info from the last round of polls; why the Haley Stevens nonsense won't make much difference and some extra resources for following along tomorrow night.

Great set of final NYT polls for the Democrats, particularly Michigan, Texas and Kansas. Also they changed methodology from previous cycles which boosts the Republicans. Image on the right shows what they'd be on the old methodology. Feeling more confident in my predictions...

Very good last set of polls from YouGov for the Democrats: N Carolina: +11 Maine: +5 Texas: +4 Michigan: +4 Kansas: +1 Nebraska: even

Of particular interest is Vance starting to freelance on Iran, which could be setting up a major battle for the Republican party after the midterms....