Just tweeting about numbers and sports. I probably say dumb things once in a while. please ignore them.
Joined May 2020
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Dug into 44,711 NFL 4th downs (2015 to 2026 wk 9)
1. Coaches follow the math far more than a decade ago
2. Going for 2 early is rare even when the model says go
3. Three coach types: go-for-it, punt-first, by the book
4. They need a clear edge to go, but kick a FG even at a loss
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Super detailed web app: nfl-fourth-downs.vercel.app
every decision, every coach, game by game (updated through week 9)
made it back on 10/25 but didn't post until now
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This is was the thread / theory I based the analysis on FYI:
xitter.twitterapi.xyz/SportsandMath1/status/…
To understand why NFL coaches sometimes make “-EV” decisions
is basically down to the % of the variance they “control”
e.g. they’d prefer to play a game out as a 1-3 pt underdog than let a coin flip (or single play) decide the result
they’re risk averse to high leverage plays
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