State Navigate

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 @StateNavigate knocked it out of the park this year. We only missed two state legislative chambers this year and got 93-94% of all contested state legislative seat winners right. We improved upon 2024, too. articles.statenavigate.com/u…

.@StateNavigate will only miss 2 state legislative chambers in the 2026 state legislative elections, the TX and GA Houses. It's our best ever when going back to the @CNalysis days. Pop a cork.

Threw this together pretty quickly but @StateNavigate looks like it's made the top 10 most accurate pollsters this year. + We had the best performance of any pollster when comparing field performance vs. others; our governor polls did 5 points better on average than the rest.

:)

JUST CALLED: In a remarkable upset, Democrats have flipped UT HD-62 in Provo. Democrat David Chappell had just a 2% chance of winning in our forecast, but he flipped one of the country's youngest state legislative districts anyway. projects.statenavigate.com/2…

My personal Virginia predictions and the @StateNavigate poll did remarkably well this year; the error will be reduced further as same-day registration votes are counted by Wednesday (esp. in VA5, though Perriello will narrowly lose). The last-minute GOP money saved McGuire, IMO. R's got caught sleeping at the wheel in a lot of reliably Republican districts this year, but everyone in Virginia knew from the start of early voting that it was a dogfight.

So far...pretty darn good.

It's official: Republicans now hold just 3 of 36 seats in the Connecticut State Senate. An extinction-level event hit Republicans in this chamber. Ironically, Republicans didn't do too badly in the State House compared with our forecast. projects.statenavigate.com/2…

🚨PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS🚨 The favorite in @StateNavigate state legislative/gubernatorial forecasts has won 95.8% of the time in races that have been called (131 uncalled seats; 5709/5957 of called races) Across 1,801 single-member races, the average gap between our forecast probabilities and actual win rates was 1.8 points, down from 4.7 in 2024. An INCREDIBLE improvement despite a >4x larger polling error this year than 2 years ago. As you can guess, most of the seats that upset our forecast went to Democrats: 198 of the 248 seats we missed (79.8%) were won by Democrats. We're still waiting on more races to call, but we'll be writing more in-depth about our forecast performance this year. But here at @StateNavigate, we celebrate our wins and focus on our losses. We've already discussed several methodology changes that should help us improve again in 2028.

Democrats' net gain in some state legislative chambers is so large that you have to go back to the 19th century. DEMs' net gain in the NH Senate precedes the Republican Party; you have to go back to 1847 (!) DEMs' net gain in the TX House is the largest since Reconstruction ended

2026 is not only the largest Democratic wave in state legislatures since the 1974 Watergate Wave. 2026 is probably the 7th-largest Democratic net gain in state legislatures over the last 100 years. It's likely going to beat Landslide Lyndon's 1964 win.

In 2026, Democrats have won over FIVE HUNDRED seats that voted for Trump in 2024 at the state legislative level so far, with more seats yet to be called. Republicans won 54 Harris-won seats, and HALF of them were left uncontested by Democrats. projects.statenavigate.com/2…

The @StateNavigate poll grades for all of our final 2026 general election polls are out. We were the most accurate pollster in the Georgia 2026 elections, but we still undershot Democrats. Still, most of our polls earned an A or B. Good job to the committee!