The Rooting Guide

Texas Tech fans, the playoff is there for the taking. But the next two weeks are going to make you earn it. Win out, and our model puts the Red Raiders’ CFP chances at 98.4%. Drop one, and suddenly you’re sweating out November. With trips to Oklahoma State and Baylor up next, this is where things get real. And your rooting interests have a distinct Texas flavor this week: Baylor, Texas A&M and SMU. Yes, that means cheering for Baylor before heading to Waco to try to ruin their next Saturday. This week’s friendship has an expiration date. 🤝 First, handle business in Stillwater. Here’s who to root for around the country in Week 11 to help Tech’s playoff chances. 👇 therootingguide.com/team/tex…

UCLA is No. 4, and apparently still needs to submit additional paperwork to convince everyone it belongs. 🐻 The good news: the Bruins can keep answering on the field. Keep winning, and the playoff conversation takes care of itself. But Illinois is a meaningful hurdle. A great ranking doesn’t make November games automatic. Beyond that, UCLA’s biggest outside interests take fans well beyond the Big Ten: Texas A&M, SMU, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. You don’t have to settle every argument about the Bruins. Beat Illinois and let a few other contenders explain their losses instead. Here’s who UCLA should root for in Week 11 👇 therootingguide.com/team/ucl…

The Oregon playoff obituary remains on hold. 🦆 The Ducks still have an at-large path AND a route through the Big Ten championship. But even winning out wouldn’t make this comfortable: our model gives a 9–3 Oregon a 57.2% CFP chance. There’s work to do in Eugene—and some help to find elsewhere. USC beating Indiana would be especially useful. That upset gives Oregon a bigger modeled boost than its own expected win over Michigan. That doesn’t make Michigan optional. It tells you how much the surrounding race matters. So this week’s assignment includes cheering for USC and Boise State. A Trojan victory and a Broncos win over Oregon State? Oregon fans may find one of those requests easier than the other. First, beat Michigan. Here’s the rest of your Week 11 rooting guide 👇 therootingguide.com/team/ore…

Houston still has two playoff doors open: an at-large bid and a conference championship. 🐾 That makes this weekend’s Big 12 scoreboard especially interesting. Oklahoma State beating Texas Tech would help open up the conference-title race. Baylor beating BYU could help there too, while also handing a major at-large competitor another loss. Same conference. Two different reasons to care. A trip to the Big 12 title game would give Houston a chance to settle this with a trophy. The at-large route gives the Cougars another way in. First, though: beat Colorado. None of this gets easier if Houston becomes the upset everyone else is celebrating. Then it’s Go Pokes and Sic ’Em—a temporary alliance with very specific terms and conditions. Here’s who Houston should root for in Week 11 👇 therootingguide.com/team/hou…

Iowa’s assignment is straightforward. The playoff invitation is less so. 🐤 Win out to finish 10–2, and our model gives the Hawks a 66.9% CFP chance. Good shape. Still enough uncertainty to make Selection Sunday unpleasant. Another loss drops that outlook below 1%, so Purdue comes first. But Iowa fans also have plenty of reasons to keep the remote nearby. Texas A&M, SMU and Baylor can help thin the at-large traffic. Wisconsin and Illinois can help closer to home. Yes, Illinois—the team Iowa visits next week. Please beat UCLA, enjoy yourselves briefly, then return to being the opponent. Three wins would give Iowa a strong case. Some chaos would make that case easier to hear. Here’s who to root for in Week 11 👇 therootingguide.com/team/iow…

Wake Forest fans, if the ranking feels short on respect, this weekend offers a pretty useful response. Go win at SMU. 🎩 That result alone would lift Wake’s CFP chances by nearly 24 percentage points in our model. This is a game that can materially change the outlook. The committee discussion can continue afterward. First comes a road trip with serious playoff stakes. Elsewhere, Louisville is your biggest outside rooting interest, with Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Illinois also on the help-wanted list. And while seemingly half the playoff bubble is cheering for SMU this week, Wake has a very simple way to ruin everybody’s plans. Here’s who the Deacs should root for in Week 11 👇 therootingguide.com/team/wak…

Ole Miss fans, last week was brutal. But the playoff path hasn’t disappeared. It has become considerably more dependent on other people making mistakes. Win out, and our model still gives the Rebels a 23.2% CFP chance. A long shot, absolutely. Enough to keep watching, also absolutely. Priority one: beat Oklahoma. Beyond that, root for at-large contenders to stumble. SMU, Texas A&M, Baylor and Florida can all do useful damage this week. Then there’s Louisville: a chance for a team on the résumé to keep making that résumé look better. At this point, Ole Miss fans are both upset enthusiasts and part-time publicists for past opponents. Hotty Toddy—and here’s who to root for in Week 11 👇 therootingguide.com/team/ole…

No. 11 in the country. Just a 16.8% CFP chance in our model. Kentucky fans are entitled to ask: what gives? 🔵 A lot of the answer is still on the schedule. Florida is close to a coin flip. Kentucky is an underdog at Missouri. Louisville is another game the model sees as slightly less than a coin flip. The ranking says Kentucky has a playoff position to defend. The schedule says defending it will be difficult. But win all three, and our model puts the Wildcats above 99%. The opportunity is very much there. This week, start with Florida. Then pull for LSU, Oklahoma and Texas A&M to make life less comfortable for other SEC contenders. Conference pride can take the weekend off. Here’s Kentucky’s Week 11 rooting guide 👇 therootingguide.com/team/ken…

Tennessee fans: how are we feeling about No. 8 when the Alabama team you beat 26–10 is sitting at No. 3? 🍊 After handling Kentucky 34–6, hoping to land a little closer to the Tide seems reasonable. But the Vols still have a very clear answer available: win out. Our model puts a 10–2 Tennessee above 99% to make the CFP. One more loss makes things considerably less comfortable: 29.9% at 9–3. Still alive, but suddenly asking a lot more of everyone else. So while Tennessee handles Texas A&M, some disruption in the at-large race would be welcome. Enter Baylor, SMU and Michigan. And yes, Kentucky is on your rooting list too. After making the Wildcats look bad last week, you’d now appreciate them looking good again. Here’s who Tennessee should root for in Week 11 👇 therootingguide.com/team/ten…

South Carolina’s playoff hopes are still alive. And “alive” is doing more work than you might think. 🐔 Win out, and our model gives the Gamecocks an 83.2% CFP chance. The catch? That includes beating Georgia. A pretty substantial item on the to-do list. This is overwhelmingly an at-large chase, and some help around the country over the next few weeks would make it more comfortable. But Carolina still has a chance to change its own résumé dramatically. For this week: handle Arkansas. Then become an enthusiastic supporter of SMU, Baylor and Oklahoma State. Apparently the road from Columbia to the playoff includes a layover in the old Southwest Conference footprint. Georgia can wait a week. 👇 therootingguide.com/team/sou…

BYU fans, the Utah loss hurt. But maybe not quite as much as past years, as their #2 ranking is actually helping the Cougars. The Cougars would be in if the playoff started today. Win out to finish 10–2, and our model puts their CFP chances above 99%. That’s a pretty good place to be with three games left. Here’s the interesting part: NONE of BYU’s five biggest outside games this week are Big 12 matchups. With two conference losses, the at-large route is doing most of the work. Which raises an uncomfortable question: would you rather BYU avoid the Big 12 title game? A trophy and an automatic bid are tempting. So is sitting at 10–2 while everyone else risks another loss. Our numbers don’t settle that debate—but they certainly make it interesting. First, beat Baylor. Then BYU fans get to spend part of Saturday cheering for Texas A&M, SMU and Michigan. November creates some strange friendships. Here’s who to root for in Week 11 👇 therootingguide.com/team/byu

LSU fans, Alabama was a crusher. But redemption gets a pretty good time slot. Texas. Saturday night. Under the lights in Death Valley. 🐯 Win, and our model moves LSU’s CFP chances from 20.5% to 36.8%. That’s an immediate opportunity to get right back in the hunt. Beyond your own game, your weekend comes with a surprising amount of Big 12 homework. With the SEC title path essentially gone, the at-large race takes center stage. Three of LSU’s five biggest outside games involve the Big 12. Just one is an SEC matchup. Your temporary allegiances: 🐎 SMU over Wake Forest 🤠 Oklahoma State over Texas Tech 🐻 Baylor over BYU 🍊 Tennessee over Texas A&M 🦬 Colorado over Houston Yes, Tennessee—even with the Vols still on LSU’s schedule. You can wish them well this weekend and take it all back later. First, beat Texas. Then embrace your brief career as a Big 12 enthusiast. therootingguide.com/team/lsu

Ohio State fans, I know you aren't used to looking at the playoff bracket from the outside. There’s still time to change that. But this weekend calls for something uncomfortable: chaos, upsets… and a Michigan win. 😬 The Buckeyes still have two paths. Win out to finish 9–3, and our model gives them a 33.7% CFP chance: • 20.3% through a conference championship • 13.5% through an at-large bid The Big Ten title route is the bigger piece—which helps explain why the three biggest outside games are all in the conference. The potential boosts to Ohio State’s current CFP odds: Illinois over UCLA: +9.6 percentage points USC over Indiana: +7.0 Michigan over Oregon: +9.1 For comparison, beating Northwestern adds +2.5 points. Each of those upsets would help more than Ohio State’s own expected win. That doesn’t make Northwestern optional: lose, and the model takes away 21.4 points. Handle your business. Then root for the Big Ten to make a mess. And if anyone catches you cheering for Michigan, tell them it’s a strictly administrative arrangement. therootingguide.com/team/ohi…

The Rooting Guide is updated after the committee’s rankings—and Tuesday had a few plot twists. 👀 Our Sunday projections already included the weekend’s results. Then the committee weighed in, and a few teams’ playoff outlooks shifted considerably. 🦆 OREGON GOT SOME LOVE No. 23 → No. 16 CFP odds: 28.3% → 39.0% The biggest beneficiary of the refresh. That seven-spot jump likely gives Oregon a much stronger foothold in the at-large race. Highest ranked three-loss team, and still very much part of the conversation. 🔵 BYU COULD EXHALE A LITTLE No. 9 → No. 10 CFP odds: 42.3% → 49.9% A tough loss, but only a one-spot slide. Our read: BYU’s positioning in the updated field leaves a more forgiving path than Sunday’s outlook suggested. Almost a coin flip overall—but our model puts the Cougars above 99% if they finish 10–2. Playoffs start now for BYU. 🍊 TENNESSEE MIGHT HAVE QUESTIONS No. 13 → No. 8 CFP odds: 53.9% → 40.4% Beat then-No. 6 Kentucky 34–6. Already beat Alabama 26–10. Still sit five places behind the Tide. Moving up five spots sounds great. But after those wins, hoping to land closer to Alabama seemed pretty reasonable. Our read: that placement leaves more at-large vulnerability than the résumé might suggest. A better ranking, but a less comfortable playoff outlook. 🐻 ARIZONA WON… AND LOST GROUND No. 22 → No. 23 CFP odds: 17.3% → 6.5% Escaping TCU apparently didn’t buy much goodwill. The refreshed field leaves Arizona with a much tougher at-large path. But No. 2 Utah is up next. That’s quite an opportunity to give the committee something new to discuss. The takeaway: moving up the rankings and moving closer to the playoff aren’t always the same thing. The whole field matters. What surprised you from the committee? Who would you have had higher or lower? Updated odds and rooting guides: therootingguide.com

The biggest CFP risers and fallers after Week 10—and a few changes that deserve a closer look 👇 🔒 FOUR BIG WINNERS NOW ABOVE 94% Alabama: 76.5% → 96.6% Georgia: 84.9% → 98.6% Notre Dame: 87.7% → 99.4% Utah: 83.4% → 94.2% All four entered the weekend with strong playoff chances. All four won—and now their fans can spend a little less time stress-watching everyone else. 📉 OHIO STATE, OLE MISS AND LSU HAD A VERY DIFFERENT WEEKEND Ohio State: 69.8% → 21.3% Ole Miss: 50.4% → 11.5% LSU: 49.1% → 18.7% The three biggest odds changes in the country. All in the wrong direction. None is out. But the margin for error got a whole lot smaller. 🚨 SOME PLAYOFF PATHS NEARLY DISAPPEARED 🫣 UTSA: 20.1% → 0.6% Missouri: 7.0% → 0.7% Florida: 4.5% → 0.0% November is unforgiving. 🍊 TENNESSEE HAD THE BIGGEST JUMP 26.2% → 53.9%. From roughly one chance in four to better than a coin flip. A 27.7-point increase leads the country. A pretty good weekend to know all the words to Rocky Top. 🦆🐤 OREGON AND IOWA AREN’T DONE YET Oregon: 6.2% → 28.3% Iowa: 12.7% → 24.7% Remember when these teams felt like playoff afterthoughts? Oregon went into Columbus and kept rewriting the story of its season. Iowa handled Northwestern and nearly doubled its chances. Still work to do. But those playoff obituaries may have been a little premature. 🐺 NEW MEXICO IS BOISE’S BIGGEST G6 CHALLENGER New Mexico: 18.1% → 27.9%. With UTSA’s chances collapsing, the Lobos are now the primary G6 threat if Boise State falters. New Mexico fans have two favorite teams: the Lobos and whoever’s playing Boise. 🤔 TEXAS TECH WON… AND FELL? 44.8% → 34.9%. Tech survived West Virginia, but its FPI rating dropped from 16.8 to 15.7. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State hammered Kansas State, and Baylor kept winning. The remaining schedule suddenly looks less forgiving: At Oklahoma State: 63.9% win probability → 47.3%. At Baylor: 61.5% → 57.0%. Tech won Saturday. Its next two road trips got scarier. Here’s why that matters so much: At 11–1: 99.2% CFP odds. At 10–2: 22.3%. That is one VERY expensive second loss. 🛋️ INDIANA LOST GROUND FROM THE COUCH 88.9% → 82.0%. A bye protects your record. It doesn’t protect your résumé. Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan and Minnesota—all teams Indiana beat—lost. Meanwhile, Iowa and Notre Dame strengthened their playoff cases, and UCLA kept winning in the Big Ten race. The Hoosiers are still in excellent shape. But “we didn’t lose” doesn’t mean the weekend helped. That’s what makes November so fascinating: your team plays one game—or none—and the entire country can change its outlook. See where your team stands and who to root for in Week 11: therootingguide.com

The Rooting Guide is updated and LIVE for Week 11! 🏈 Week 10 shook up the playoff race. See where your team stands—and which teams you’ll be awkwardly cheering for next weekend. ✅ Team rooting guides ✅ Updated CFP odds ✅ Conference standings ✅ Projected bracket Your team has one game. Your rooting interests have several. therootingguide.com

Iowa asked for help today. Apparently everyone left them on read. 😂 Minnesota, Miami, Missouri, Cincinnati and Washington—all came up short in the biggest outside games for the Hawkeyes. But the most important result? Iowa took care of that themselves. 24–10 over Northwestern. Our pregame model projected 24.5% CFP odds with a win, versus just 0.2% with a loss. Right in the hunt. Wisconsin, Alabama and Oklahoma did chip in—each worth a modest 0.2–0.3 percentage-point boost in our pregame projections. The outside help wasn’t much. The Hawkeyes’ own win was everything. See how every game impacted Iowa today: therootingguide.com/?team=Io…

Wow, what a game! HUGE win for Notre Dame. Our pregame model put the Irish at 99.2% CFP odds with a win, up from 87.7%. And Miami? Still at 98.2% in the loss scenario. The sky isn’t falling in Coral Gables. But a LOT of other fan bases were borrowing Miami gear tonight. LSU, Alabama, Tennessee and plenty more wanted the Hurricanes to keep Notre Dame within reach. The exception? BYU. Outside Notre Dame, BYU was the ONLY team with a projected boost greater than 0.1 percentage points from an Irish win: +0.7. Rough day in Provo. At least the temporary Notre Dame fandom paid off. ☘️

Beat LSU. Thank Oregon. Quietly acknowledge Auburn helped. Immediately change the subject. 🐘 Alabama handled Death Valley, 31–13. Our pregame model put Bama at 95.6% CFP odds with a win—a 19.1-percentage-point boost. Oregon knocking off Ohio State supplied the biggest outside assist. South Carolina helped, too. We’ve already said enough about Auburn. Now it’s time to throw up The U and practice a reluctant “Go Dawgs.” The graphic has your top 5 rooting assignments for tonight 👇 For every game’s impact on Alabama’s playoff chances: therootingguide.com/?team=Al…

That one hurts. Losing to Utah needs no additional commentary tonight. But BYU’s playoff path is still very much alive. Our pregame model put BYU at 38.5% CFP odds even with a loss today. And our odds-by-record model gives a 10–2 BYU an 82.3% chance to make the playoff. There’s still a lot worth playing for. If you can stomach more football tonight, the graphic has your top 5 rooting assignments. Apparently the recovery process involves cheering for Notre Dame. 😅 For every game’s impact on BYU’s playoff chances: therootingguide.com/?team=BY…