Geopolitics, De-Dollarization & the New World Order | Hosted by Zulfiqar Ali ft. Pepe Escobar & Larry C. Johnson | https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/RztIqboePz
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Nov 7: CENTCOM stood up Task Force Iron Gate. Its brief is Iran's land and Caspian trade routes.
The blockade stays. Pressure without war now points north.
transitionprotocol.substack.…
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Iran's seven conditions reached Washington. The answer, per Mohsen Rezaei on Al Mayadeen: "insufficient and deceptive."
The US reply is not public. Tehran has named its price and is waiting for an answer it can accept.
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Four accounts of the Doha track. They don't agree:
Our broadcast: Tehran withdrew after consulting Beijing, Moscow
Araghchi: proposal stands
Kalin: Vance-Rezaei meet next week
Rezaei: no meeting was ever planned
Next week shows which held.
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Rubio in Paris: sanctions and the blockade are working; major combat is not needed.
Trump on new strikes: "quite unlikely."
Neither is a yes to the Doha terms. Neither is a threat of war. Washington's position is the blockade itself.
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Brent: -16.4% in the week to Nov 6, -5.85% Monday, $91.49 Tuesday. Lowest since Aug 31.
Hormuz transits: still about 65% below pre-conflict (UKMTO).
The market is pricing a deal. The strait is pricing a war. One of them is wrong.
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There is no Iran deal in force. Tehran's half is public: Araghchi says the two-day proposal still stands.
Washington's yes is missing, and the blockade stays. Oil is pricing a deal anyway.
transitionprotocol.substack.…
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Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, after the planned Doha talks fell apart: "I think the likelihood now of renewed kinetic strikes by the United States on Iran is quite high."
His read: Washington is preparing the public narrative. Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=rCCw1G58…
Iran will act to break the "no war, no peace" stalemate if the Qatar-backed talks fail — that is what a source in Mohsen Rezaee's office told Zulfiqar Ali hours before air.
Asked if that means a preemptive attack, Ali: "Correct."
The source's words, as Ali relays them: "We will take action to break out of this situation." Full conversation with Pepe Escobar — the Qatari plan, the Pakistan channel, and why Escobar says it won't hold: youtube.com/watch?v=g2SjEa1J…
Dates to watch:
Nov 16: EASA’s conflict-zone bulletin for the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman runs out unless renewed.
Mid-Nov: USS Theodore Roosevelt due, to relieve the George Washington. Rotation, not surge.
Marco Rubio called Iran’s demands “outrageous and ridiculous.” Trump told CNN strikes are “highly unlikely” while talks continue.
One statement rules out a quick deal. The other rules out a quick war. Neither says yes.
Oil through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2, from 21.6 million (US EIA data, via AFP).
A deal would reopen the strait. It would not refill it.
67 of Israel’s 120 lawmakers recommended Gadi Eisenkot. President Herzog gave him the mandate on November 8.
A mandate is not a coalition. Until a government forms, Netanyahu stays caretaker, with authority over Israel’s military.
