Unsaifedean Anonammous

AI investors don't know it yet, but their thesis forces them to be Bitcoin investors. The ultimate AI accelerationist investment is Bitcoin because AI is systematically destroying the scarcity of productive intelligence while Bitcoin preserves monetary scarcity. AI will make the world extraordinarily abundant. Intelligence becomes cheap, innovation accelerates, and technological advantages that once lasted decades can disappear in months. The resulting prosperity will be immense, but the ability of individual companies to capture and retain that prosperity will become increasingly fragile. Traditional investing is built around forecasting the durability of future corporate profits. AI is destroying the assumptions that make those forecasts reliable. Even owning the entire stock market does not solve the fundamental problem. The future winners may not exist today. They may remain private, become open-source projects, or create enormous consumer surplus without capturing corresponding profits. Companies will be created and destroyed at unprecedented speed. Productive assets will face continual obsolescence. The amount of economic value generated by AI will expand enormously, but owning equities does not guarantee capturing that value. Meanwhile, AI's productivity revolution creates enormous deflationary pressure. Under an inflation-targeting monetary regime (Federal Reserve et al.), that abundance can encourage monetary accommodation and faster dollar creation, potentially financing still more AI. The productive economy becomes increasingly abundant while its monetary system can become increasingly expansionary. Bitcoin resolves both problems. It does not require identifying the winners of technological competition, and its underlying supply remains scarce even in the presence of abundant intelligence. (There is also a related argument that frontier AI labs should become bitcoin treasury companies so that they don't experience premature obsolescence of their funds.)