Former HFM | Institutional-grade quant research for individual investors | Not Financial Advice | https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/7AGyvCDsb5 | Email: research@alphatica.io
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Every call goes up before the print. Every receipt goes up after.
Q2 2026, Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal:
0/6 BEARISH TSLA -14%
0/6 BEARISH INTC erased a 15% rally
0/6 BEARISH SNDK -7%
2/6 BEARISH JEF -10%
2/6 BEARISH CAR -10.19%
2/6 NEUTRAL TER beat called to the penny, sell-off called
3/6 NEUTRAL AAPL -9%
4/6 BULLISH AMZN +6%
5/6 BULLISH NOW +4.22%
5/6 BULLISH FFIV +11.4% off the low
Next up is NVDA, August 26 post-market. The call posts before it.
What else runs here: Institutional quality research that you will only find behind trading desks and prime brokerages.
The edge was never the data. It was who could afford the analysis. Q4 changes that.
Institutional and data licensing: research@alphatica.io
Get on the list first: alphatica.io
$NVDA $SPY $QQQ
SPX GEX Levels: Thursday, November 12
SPX closed Wednesday at 7,619.38, up 98 points (+1.31%), inside our 7,520–7,670 range. The open failed at the flip, retested 7,600 an hour later, broke through, and pinned. It closed less than a point from the heavy expiring strike near 7,620.
The bigger story is this morning's map. Net gamma is positive: +$86M, up from -$651M on Tuesday. That's the first positive close reading since Oct 29. And it held even after Wednesday's expiring options rolled off.
For the first time in two weeks, the cushion is above spot:
7,625: +$35M (spot)
7,650: +$92M (top call-volume strike Wednesday)
7,675: +$83M
7,700: +$106M (strongest magnet on the board)
7,750: +$66M
The flip is close, though. It runs 7,605 to 7,616, just 14 points below spot. Under it, the negative strikes are still there: 7,600 (-$57M), 7,575 (-$59M), 7,500 (-$118M).
Wednesday's new flow went the same way. Calls traded across 7,630–7,700. Puts kept building at 7,500 and 7,550. ATM IV fell to 14.6%.
Nvidia fell after hours, so the open will decide which side of the line we start on. Hold 7,605 and dealers absorb moves, with 7,650–7,700 the pull. Lose it and the regime flips back, with 7,500 the level that matters.
Predicted range: 7,570–7,700.
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We knew about this weeks ago. We are too small of an account to give scandalous breaking news like this. We tested something that had a possible scandalous outcome with a social media influencer a few weeks ago and it did not work. Even though we still think we are right. But we will not digress.
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If we had 100,000 followers at the time of this post. It would have read Jensen is gone next week. At 16,000 followers you’d all think we were lunatics.
Jensen will be gone next week. He is done. You heard it here first last week.
Heading back to positive GAMMA.
Clears 7,604 and holds above it: price enters positive gamma for the first time since Nov 4. 7,625 (+$17M) comes first, then a grind toward 7,650–7,700.
The move should slow there rather than accelerate, because dealers start absorbing.
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There is going to be a need for capital next week. Anyway you spin it. We are telling you with 100% certainty.
This is all that matters:
xitter.twitterapi.xyz/alphaticaio/status/212…
SPX GEX Levels: Wednesday, November 11
SPX closed Tuesday at 7,520.93, down 29 points (-0.38%), inside our 7,470–7,640 range. CPI knocked it to about 7,482 midday. It recovered into the close and settled right on the heavy strike near 7,520.
Futures are up 74 points this morning, to 7,595. The levels below were computed at Tuesday's close. Treat them as the map. The open decides where we stand on it.
A 7,595 open lands inside the flip zone, which runs 7,555 to 7,604. Dealers are close to neutral in there. They're not adding fuel, but they're not absorbing much either.
Just above it, positive gamma starts:
7,625: +$17M
7,700: +$47M
7,800: +$45M
Below the open, the heavy strikes are still there:
7,550: -$26M
7,525: -$90M (Tuesday's close)
7,500: -$193M (heaviest on the board)
7,450: -$90M
Net gamma at Tuesday's close was -$651M. With price opening near the top of the flip zone, the real reading will be less negative.
Tuesday's flow leaned upside. Calls traded at 7,550, 7,575, 7,600, 7,650 and 7,700. Puts kept building at 7,400–7,500. Volume put/call was 1.38. ATM IV is 16.2%.
The open sits at the line. Hold above 7,604 and positive gamma takes over, with 7,700 the magnet. Fail there and the gap has negative gamma underneath it, with 7,525 the first real test.
Predicted range: 7,520–7,670.
👀
🚨 WE ARE MAKING THE CALL: THE MARKET HAS ENTERED A TACTICAL BOTTOMING WINDOW.
This is not based on one oversold indicator.
It is the convergence of momentum, volume, breadth and intraday liquidation.
1. Momentum collapsed
The Russell 3000 value-weighted momentum factor fell 21.1% in five sessions, its second-worst five-day crash in our sample going back to 2023.
The market's previous winners lost 36.2% over 21 sessions.
This was not an ordinary pullback.
It was a crowded trade being forcibly unwound.
The most crowded stocks were carrying extreme risk
The prior winners entered the selloff with a beta of 4.1.
The loser portfolio had a beta of just 1.0.
When deleveraging started, the stocks that had performed best were positioned to fall more than four times as fast as the market.
🚨🚨That is exactly what happened.
2. Intraday selling reached statistical extremes
SPY registered two hourly candles beyond four standard deviations.
Its opening-hour return was 5.95 standard deviations below normal.
QQQ produced three flush hours, with its most extreme reaching 5.27 standard deviations.
QQQ's 10:00 AM volume reached 30.6 million shares, the heaviest comparable hourly volume of the past 120 sessions.
3. Breadth reached capitulation levels
Only 12.3% of the Russell 3000 advanced.
Dollar volume ran 3.4 standard deviations above its recent average.
SPY and QQQ both closed in the bottom 2% of their daily ranges. Sellers controlled the session from beginning to end.
4. The damage was concentrated, not systemic
Only 7.7% of Russell 3000 stocks reached 52-week lows. At the April 2025 market low, that figure reached 36.8%.
This was a violent liquidation of crowded leadership than a collapse across the entire market.
5. Historical flushes produced positive forward returns
Excluding the COVID crash,
SPY averaged:
10 sessions: +1.64%
20 sessions: +2.24%
QQQ averaged:
10 sessions: +2.39%
20 sessions: +2.63%
Those returns beat ordinary trading days, although they did not consistently outperform other large down days.
Part of the effect is mean reversion after severe selling.
That distinction matters.
What we are calling
We are not claiming today's exact price must hold.
In the closest historical profiles, only 20% of SPY lows and 40% of QQQ lows avoided another lower close during the following 10 sessions.
A retest or marginal undercut remains possible.
Our call is that the liquidation phase has reached an extreme, the forward-return asymmetry has improved and the market has entered a bottoming process.
This is a tactical bottoming call, not a guarantee of a V-shaped recovery.
Risk marker
A daily close below SPY's $732.71 low would invalidate the claim that today marked the exact bottom.
The broader bottoming thesis would require a sustained break below that level, accompanied by expanding new lows and further deterioration in market breadth.
The low is now defined.
The market has to defend it.
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