Exponential View @exponentialview.
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Joined July 2007
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The GenAI economy has generated $110 billion in sales over the past 12 months. It is growing fast. On an annualized basis, the revenue run rate exceeds $175 billion.
These numbers took us several months to construct, and as far as we know, it’s the first bottom-up, deduplicated measure of consumer and enterprise AI spending across the full stack.
We are releasing this research today in our first The State of the AI Economy report.
intelligence.exponentialview…
Azeem Azhar retweeted
Wow. Strong stuff from Jensen Huang
ALT This seems to me like obvious parody, but just to be clear: this is parody
1/5 Nvidia helped finance the businesses buying its chips. What happens when the man driving that system leaves?
Here’s how I see the fallout
exponentialview.co/p/jensen-…
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4/5 My bet: more power shifts to the biggest cloud providers, while customers seek alternatives to Nvidia’s chips.
Google could benefit on both fronts. AMD also has an opening.
Who gains most from a more cautious Nvidia?
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5/5 The consequences for OpenAI and Anthropic could be very different.
In my analysis, I explain why and where the pressure could land across the AI industry.
exponentialview.co/p/jensen-…
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
“Evercore ISI downgraded Nvidia from outperform to in-line and slashed its price target from $465 to $186.” Analysts be analyzing.
maybe we'll get a twofer
Scoop: Lutnick stalled curbing Nvidia chip sales to China — again — after Oval Office showdown axios.com/2026/11/11/trump-l…
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
A Tomb Guard from the U.S. Army’s 3rd Infantry Regiment, “The Old Guard” was forced to verbally reprimand Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and a group of his senior advisers Wednesday after some in the group laughed and loudly talked in front of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington.
Video of the incident, posted by CNN, shows Hegseth standing and taking photos in front of the tomb with his wife, Jennifer, chief of staff Ricky Buria, deputy chief of staff Patrick Weaver as well as senior adviser and deputy assistant Tami Radabaugh, following a ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery for Veterans Day.
Azeem Azhar retweeted
Anthropic needs 26.5% annual revenue growth from IPO through 2030 to cover its costs, including compute commitments. That is about 2% a month. It grew 14% in October alone.
The commitments are enormous – so is the margin for error.
investmentbrief.ai/p/anthrop…
Anthropic just told investors it grew 14% in ARR from September to October.
The divergence from Ramp's data may suggest that Anthropic's growth comes from bits of the business Ramp doesn't cover—e.g through distributors and mainstream enterprises billed directly.
Or that Anthropic had a sudden surge of subscriptions at the end of October, which it then annualised up to its ARR number. (This would be a substantial number of subscriptions!!)
NEW Ramp AI Index: In October, AI spend rose 2%. OpenAI and Anthropic growth fell to low single-digits.
Engineering teams drove 72% of spend, followed by customer service and leadership.
Given this relatively modest growth in spend, and new competitive dynamics that may stick around, the markt should look to new fronts in the AI trade.
Anthropic needs 26.5% annual revenue growth from IPO through 2030 to cover its costs, including compute commitments. That is about 2% a month. It grew 14% in October alone.
The commitments are enormous – so is the margin for error.
investmentbrief.ai/p/anthrop…
Huge congrats to my portco. This is a radical, brilliant idea to provide performant inference at scale, while neatly stepping past the HBM bottleneck @goodwin_ml
We’re delighted to announce that Fractile has raised $720M in a Series C led by @thrivecapital @foundersfund @lightspeedvp and @redpoint, with further participation by brilliant new and existing investors.
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
We have raised a $720M Series C, led by @ThriveCapital, @lightspeedvp, @Redpoint and @foundersfund, to allow us to run faster in shipping the world's fastest chips for AI.
We've seen over the past year that many of the hardest problems that humanity faces - in science, medicine, physics - may be solved in our lifetimes by AI.
One hallmark of AI applied to the toughest problems is that extreme scaling of inference compute becomes vital. In tackling a Millenium Prize problem, for instance, @OpenAI ran 10,000 parallel agents for 80 hours. Costing over $10M, this level of capability is far from democratised today.
When we study agentic scaling, there are two paths: parallel, and sequential. In just the same way that most hard problems solved by humans don't parallelise efficiently, we see the same with agents: fewer agents, thinking for longer, scales better in every way except for the time that you wait for a response.
Building radically faster inference hardware, which doesn't force a trade-off on throughput, model sizes or context lengths, is a key step in bringing down the cost and time we incur in solving our hardest problems.
We're thrilled to be backed to bring this to the world!
Azeem Azhar retweeted
‼️BREAKING: A critical flaw in Synology NAS devices lets attackers read and write any file on them without logging in.
The SQL injection bug in their login system scores 9.8 out of 10. A second flaw, in rsync, skips the login too.
Synology patched both today. Update ASAP.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Synology did not patch these flaws "today"; the DSM security updates (e.g. 7.4.1-90080-1 and branch equivalents) were released in October 2026, with the Nov 10 advisory disclosing details of those already-available fixes.
synology.com/en-global/secu…
synology.com/en-us/releaseN…
Azeem Azhar retweeted
Two lessons about uncovering and exposing information:
1️⃣ A leak always has a motive. Ask who benefits. Be cautious, and rely on open-source information whenever possible.
2️⃣ Exposing a story doesn't mean people will pay attention. Scoops operate in a pull market: information only travels when someone has an interest in spreading it.
Now, consider the Jensen affair:
▶️ Why is everyone suddenly talking about it? Apparently, the story originated with a tip from the intelligence community. Who benefits from bringing it to light now?
▶️ @CulperResearch exposed the whole story back in May. Nobody cared. Now everyone does.
What changed?
NEW: We are short Nvidia $NVDA. We believe Nvidia has a significant China problem. Please see our full report and disclosures now available on our website, link in bio.
Azeem Azhar retweeted
Astonishing.
"President Trump was told aboard Air Force One in May en route to China that the United States had obtained sensitive intelligence showing that Nvidia’s chief executive was in a relationship with a woman believed to be a Chinese spy, people with knowledge of the matter said. The message was delivered by Marco Rubio, his secretary of state and national security adviser, shortly before the Nvidia leader, Jensen Huang, joined the presidential trip to Beijing at Mr. Trump’s invitation. It marked at least the second time in seven months that the president had been told of intelligence about Mr. Huang’s involvement with the woman."
Azeem Azhar retweeted
$ANT Goldman Sachs projects Anthropic's revenue to exceed $600B by 2030, over 130x its 2025 revenue, via FT:
— Revenue to grow from $4.6B in 2025 to $52B in 2026, $136B in 2027 and $442B in 2029.
— Operating losses to rise from $8.1B in 2025 to a $40.4B peak in 2027, before profitability in 2029.
— Operating profit to reach $65.2B in 2030, with $33.6B in free cash flow.
— FCF outflows to peak at $65.7B in 2027, turning positive in 2030.
$ANT Anthropic launches IPO roadshow:
— Plans to offer 825M shares at $70–$78 each, raising up to $64.4B.
— IPO could value Anthropic at ~$1.4T on a fully diluted basis
— Anthropic will sell 801.4M new shares, with existing shareholders selling 23.6M.
— Underwriters have an option to purchase another 123.75M shares.