Your everyday wizard. Research and views are not financial advice ;)
Onchain
Joined January 2022
- Tweets29.9K
- Following754
- Followers60K
- Likes75.8K
defizard retweeted
Remember the first rule of happiness?
It’s been 3 days since Elysium by @Kinetiq_xyz hit mainnet, and my whole timeline is screaming that it’s dead… CT expected billions in volume, a 100M runner on day 1, or idk, whatever.
Arc by @circle did $336M in volume on day one, just from launchpads (!). Today, it barely does $0.5M.
Big launch-day volume ≠ long-term success.
defizard retweeted
Crypto + Macro Stuff I'm Looking At Today
...
- Jensen Huang affairs story dominating headlines
- $NVDA at $173.73, down 33% from ATH's
- $QQQ at $690.38, down about 10% from ATH's
- Gold under $4k, down almost 30% from ATH's
- Crypto down to $2.486T total market cap, over 45% below prior ATH's
- Oil at $87.05
- Pavel Durov calls $GRAM (the new ticker for $TON) 'ridiculously undervalued'
- Odds of a Fed rate hike on Dec 9th are nearly at 100% on Polymarket (absolute insanity man - wild time to be alive, feel like we're currently living through the inverse of March 2020 when they dropped rates to zero and started sending everyone checks in the mail)
- $VVV and $DRV remain top performing tokens this year (link below)
- $MSTR falls 6% in premarket trading after MSCI confirmed its removal from global indices (so reduction in passive/401k inflows, etc)
- Interesting story that some 31 year old dude named 'Christian Lamarco' running a small hedge fund apparently discovered the Jensen affair stuff and shorted $NVDA based on it back in May
- MegaETH is (partially) pivoting to AI/inference
- Acala network to shut down in February
- Sui wallet Suiet to apparently shut down as well
- Extended $XTEN allocation checker now live
- Lots of focus on the launch of Kinetiq’s Elysium, a new Hyperliquid L2, but will it stick? (link below)
- Galxe is apparently shutting down its Quest, ID, and Passport programs to focus fully on its Gravity L1 chain
- arcus_xyz was apparently exploited for $2.3M earlier this week
- Phylax/Titan Builder doing something interesting with trying to set up a way to block DPRK/etc exploits at the block-building level via app-defined circuit breakers or etc (if I'm understanding right)
- Coinbase received full federal approval to operate as a national trust bank
- Very interesting stat c/o Kobeissi... that the % of US consumers who expect the unemployment rate to be higher one year from today is now at the highest rate since recording of it began, apart from the brief spike during Covid... think this is an interesting data point that accurately reflects the sentiments I'm seeing on the ground...
- Also delinquencies on credit card, student loan, and auto loan debt are rising in US as well
Conclusion
Hope you are all doing well my bros!
Woke up at 430 am to go running with neighbor/buddy :)
Now brypto-maxxing...
Then massive feast...
Then big 4 hour nap...
Then combat sports training...
Markets can goblinmaxx all the way but we will keep getting after it lads! 💪
Remember the first rule of happiness?
It’s been 3 days since Elysium by @Kinetiq_xyz hit mainnet, and my whole timeline is screaming that it’s dead… CT expected billions in volume, a 100M runner on day 1, or idk, whatever.
Arc by @circle did $336M in volume on day one, just from launchpads (!). Today, it barely does $0.5M.
Big launch-day volume ≠ long-term success.
defizard retweeted
Very cool contest from @Mantle_Official!
Honestly wish more projects did stuff like this... as I think its a really cool way to catalyze attention/discussion/etc...
Much like when Twitter/X did its $1M article contest... thought that was extremely cool and wish they'd make that a regular thing...
But yeah, the contest from now through December 9th!
To enter, you just:
- Pick any @Mantle_Official tweet from this year (2026)
- Quote-tweet it with thoughts on it or Mantle or etc
- Submit it via the form linked in the tweet below!
They are giving away $4k worth of $MNT tokens to the winners (again all details below)!
We covered this in the Spotlight section of @thedailydegenhq today, but I often have newer/smaller accounts dm'ing me asking me about how to make their first $100 in crypto or similar stuff, and this is a perfect opportunity, so wanted to tweet about it as well...
Disclaimer as always that I am bias, own lots of $MNT, work with them via The Daily Degen, etc :)
But yeah will link to some additional stuff below if you need ideas for what to write about!
defizard retweeted
Everyone I know IRL is struggling right now...
Which probably means a lot of people on here are struggling too...
If you are in that boat just know you're not alone man-
It seems to just be the zeitgeist right now...
Indeed, while the regular economy is ostensibly doing okay, I honestly have felt a sense of unease and existential fear and discouragement in the IRL vibe the last few months as intense as any I remember...
Even stretching back to the GFC and housing crash and all that back when I was a youngster.
Its a weird time man.
So yeah... if you're struggling, just keep putting in the reps... get your monthly expenses as low as possible... keep focusing on the important stuff like family and health and fitness and etc...
Never blackpill... never give up... and transmute the pain of life into massive daily action... ILY bros 💪
TL;DR:
Signing window until 31 December doesn't mean TGE is delayed to 2027. The docs say that:
- If you sign before TGE, you get $XTEN before it starts trading on Extended and other venues.
- If you sign after TGE (but before 31 Dec), you get a rolling delivery... something like vesting.
= there's a 100% chance that $XTEN will be listed before Dec 31, imo...
Remember HL and the difference in dates between T&C and airdrop?
The XTEN allocation checker and T&Cs are now live.
Eligible Xpoints holders can sign the Terms in the Extended app to see their XTEN allocation.
Signing window: 11 November 2026 to 31 December 2026, 23:59 UTC.
Starknet accounts must nominate a self-custodial EVM wallet with an active Extended account to receive XTEN. The TGE date will be announced separately.
Sign only in the Extended app: extended.exchange/
Just moved my delta-neutral $HYPE strat to @risextrade... and the outcomes of this move promise to be extremely profitable.
Here's why:
1. Rise just launched Perpkin Spice with $50K in rewards. TL;DR: you get a "trading score" for a) volume share, b) OI share, c) PnL share.
@yeffjan (top-1) with $10M of volume currently gets $11k.
My ref link gives you a 15% points boost and a 15% rebate: rise.trade/invite/defi. FYI, there are just 150 participants.
2. The points program is running until Q2 2027; at $250M FDV and 25% airdrop, 1 point = $5.4 (calculations by @ruslan55x; xitter.twitterapi.xyz/ruslan55x/status/20804…).
Being delta-neutral and occasionally playing is my strategy. :)
3. Rise values most of the fundings differently than HL, Variational, or CEXs. And I like it because of the few % more.
See you in order books!!
My assumptions on @risextrade points
Right away I’m evaluating this purely from the perspective of a user interested in the project. These are not official data or statements
In the docs it was stated that S1 will last until Q2 2027, so we can assume that if 200,000 points are distributed per week, the total will be around 10M
But we need to add the 1.6M that were given retroactively + I’d round it up to 12M, because there might still be campaigns with extra point distributions
The % for the airdrop is much harder to analyze - basically pure guesswork since there was no official info. I’d assume it’ll be 25%
That’s the lower end, because Lighter had that, HL had 33%, Variational hasn’t launched yet, but let’s say they go with 30%
Valuation is my favorite part, because it decides whether the points will even be worth anything. I’d set the lower bound at $500M
Because @risechain already closed a round through Kaito at a $200M valuation. Back then there was basically nothing except the product. Right now it’s $3.5B in volume, over $1M in revenue, 16,000+ traders and gaining traction with 30% MoM growth
@0xpostrich dropped a cool breakdown pic where we can see that with these numbers a point would be worth $10
Consider that the minimum. And the maximums go all the way up to $100
Join using my ref link that gives a 15% points boost ⬇️
Announcement:
Perpkin Spice Season is here
We brought not one but two prizes:
- $50,000 cash pool, split pro rata among every trader who qualifies
- Plus the Perpkin Pie, baked by everyone's volume for a mystery prize
November 10 - December 8 on RISEx.
Join now: join.rise.trade/Perpkin 🧵
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If you're using @PocketUniverseZ, be aware of the hidden builder fees... 3 bps isn't much, but I don't like that they don't warn you about it.
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By solving old problems, you create new ones. Or why @avon_xyz avoided @aave's stable-rate failures… and introduced a different set of problems instead.
Avon never locked rates. Everything stays floating and isolated, so no semi-fixed rates, no public rebalance function, and no protocol silently losing money when variable rates rise above fixed rates.
In exchange…
- Interest curves are locked forever after deployment. Lenders get certainty… but you also can’t fix a bad or outdated strategy when the market moves.
- Strategies must update their tick levels on the order book whenever utilization changes. The architecture was oriented toward MegaETH; on ETH, it's costly.
- Audits (from @zellic_io, @PashovAuditGrp, @cantinasecurity, @ValkyriSecurity) showed that flash loans could force borrowers into worse rates on limit orders, plus matching bugs, dust-order DoS, MEV, and front-running on market orders. Most high/medium stuff was fixed, but residual risks remain (e.g., unprotected market orders, non-upgradeable contracts, no order expiration).
- Because strategies are isolated, a single large borrow is often split across multiple strategies. Each piece has its own utilization path, rate, and liquidation logic. Lenders stay safe, but borrowers get partial liquidations and messier positions.
Re:
Two observations:
1. Initially, @avon_xyz started as a protocol built on @megaeth. You know what I mean?
You have to cut your positions when you're wrong.
Looking back, MegaETH builders brought a ton of unique stuff such as @Euphoria_fi (tap trading), @userocket_app (rethinking the concept of prediction markets), @CapApp (addressed maintaining an attractive yield in varying market contexts), @brix_money (yield from emerging economies), etc.
But only a few of them got volume and attention. Most just had their volume and/or TVL dried up without ever being acquired.
2. @aave is quietly competing with @Morpho.
Morpho already has a fixed rate with Midnight. And there are a bunch of smaller players already, such as @BarterDeFi (Monad), @TenorFinance (Base, ETH, Arc), and @flexmeow (it's @yearnfi sub-DAO).
But nobody has cracked it yet.
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